In one of the most eagerly anticipated Champions League semi-finals, Arsenal will host Paris Saint-Germain at the Emirates on Tuesday. Both clubs are on the brink of history, aiming for their first-ever European title. Arsenal, unbeaten in their last eight games, are looking to capitalize on their home advantage, while PSG, struggling on English soil, will need a strong performance to take a first-leg lead back to Paris.
Arsenal vs PSG Stats: The Key Insights
The Opta supercomputer rates Arsenal as favourites with a 44.8% win probability to PSG’s 29.4%.
Arsenal have never lost to PSG in European competition, having faced them five times previously.
PSG have lost five of their past six away games against English sides in the Champions League.
Arsenal and Paris Saint-Germain square off in the first leg of an eagerly awaited Champions League semi-final, with both teams looking to make history in their pursuit of Europe’s top prize.
The teams are set to meet at the Emirates on Tuesday, with one eye on the final in Munich next month. For both clubs, the stakes couldn’t be higher — the chance to win Europe’s most prestigious title for the first time ever.
Mikel Arteta’s men will be looking to capitalize on their home advantage. They have never lost to PSG in five previous European meetings. With their Champions League form strong, Arsenal will aim to extend their unbeaten run to nine games. In fact, they are on their second-longest unbeaten streak in a single Champions League season, having only once gone further (12 games in 2005-06).
Arsenal have been dominant in the competition, leading the scoreboard for 53% of their total match time this season, the highest of any team. Only Inter Milan (1%) have trailed for a smaller percentage of time than Arsenal (6%) in their knockout-stage victories over PSV and Real Madrid.
Bukayo Saka is poised to be a crucial factor. The England star has netted nine goals and provided six assists in just 16 appearances for Arsenal in the Champions League, setting a new benchmark for an English player in their first two seasons in the competition.
PSG travel to London having lost five of their last six away matches against English teams in the Champions League, with just one win. However, they did manage a 1-0 win against Liverpool in the last 16 earlier this season.
PSG are coming off a shaky patch in Ligue 1, having drawn 1-1 with Nantes and lost 3-1 to Nice, but with the French league title already secured, their focus now shifts to the Champions League.
Ousmane Dembélé, who has been directly involved in 10 goals this season (7 goals, 3 assists), will be a key figure for Luis Enrique’s side. His pace and creativity make him one of the most dangerous players on the pitch, alongside the club’s usual attacking threats.
In what’s shaping up to be a high-octane clash, Arsenal will be missing Thomas Partey due to suspension, though Mikel Merino and Ben White are expected to return after resting against Crystal Palace. PSG, on the other hand, have no injury concerns and are set to be at full strength.
Arsenal vs PSG Head-to-Head:
This will be the sixth meeting between the two sides, with Arsenal unbeaten in the previous five (W2, D3). The Gunners have won one of the two encounters in the 2024-25 Champions League group stage, beating PSG 2-0 at the Emirates.
Arsenal vs PSG Prediction:
Arsenal are favoured by the Opta supercomputer, with a 44.8% chance of winning the first leg. PSG have a 29.4% probability of gaining an advantage in the tie, with the draw occurring in 25.8% of simulations.
In terms of the overall competition, Arsenal now have a 28% chance of lifting the trophy, while PSG are given a 24% chance.
Arsenal vs PSG Predicted Lineups
Predicted Arsenal lineup vs PSG: Raya; Timber, Saliba, Kiwior, Lewis-Skelly; Rice, Merino, Odegaard; Saka, Trossard, Martinelli.
Paris Saint-Germain possible starting lineup:
Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Mendes; Ruiz, Vitinha, Neves; Barcola, Dembele, Kvaratskhelia
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