With only three games left after this weekend, the LaLiga title could be decided on Sunday when Barcelona host Real Madrid at Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys.
Barcelona are four points ahead of their rivals, knowing a win would move them seven points clear with nine left to play for. However, a win for Madrid would cut the gap to just one point, and give Carlo Ancelotti’s side the edge in the title race.
Opta’s supercomputer gives Barcelona a 47.2% chance of winning the game, with Madrid at 29.7%, and a draw at 23.1%. In the title race, the model gives Barcelona an 85.5% chance of lifting the trophy, while Madrid’s chances are at 14.5%.
Barcelona are unbeaten in 15 league games (W13 D2), and have scored 91 goals in 34 LaLiga games so far. That’s their best record at this stage since 2016-17, when they also had 91 goals, but still ended up finishing second to Real Madrid.
Madrid are also out of the Champions League, having lost to Inter in the semis. But they’re on a four-game winning streak in LaLiga, their longest run of the season so far.
Barcelona have won all three of their meetings with Madrid this season: 4-0 in the reverse LaLiga fixture at the Santiago Bernabéu, 5-2 in the Supercopa de España final, and 3-2 in the Copa del Rey final after extra time. A win on Sunday would make it four Clásico victories in a row for Barcelona, something they’ve only done once before, between 2008 and 2010 under Pep Guardiola.
But Madrid have won four of their last five away league games against Barcelona, including each of the last three. No team has ever won four consecutive away league Clásicos.
Barcelona’s Raphinha has 54 goal contributions this season in all competitions (32 goals, 22 assists), the most of any player in Europe’s top five leagues. Lewandowski has 40 goals, and has scored 11 goals in 17 games against Madrid in all competitions.
Madrid’s Kylian Mbappé has 36 goals in all competitions. One more would tie Iván Zamorano’s record of 37 in 1992-93 for a player in their debut season with the club.
Opta’s Power Rankings show Real Madrid with a score of 95.2 and Barcelona at 94.8 on a scale of 0–100.
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