The race for Europe is heating up, the relegation battle is all but settled, and the Premier League season is charging into its final stretch. As ever, our supercomputer has run the numbers and delivered its predictions for all ten matches on Matchday 36.
With champions Liverpool miles ahead- 15 points clear of second-placed Arsenal- the main focus now turns to the fierce chase for Champions League qualification. Meanwhile, three teams have already been consigned to relegation.
Match breakdown for the weekend ahead.
Key Highlights for MD36
Nottingham Forest are tipped to reignite their top-five hopes with a home win over Leicester City.
.Liverpool are favored in their headline clash with Arsenal at Anfield.
.Manchester City and Brentford are both predicted to secure away victories, with City the strongest pick according to the model.
.Fulham vs Everton:
Fulham aim to bounce back from their recent loss to Aston Villa when they host Everton. The Cottagers are unbeaten in their last six Premier League games against the Toffees (three wins, three draws), and they’re backed to extend that streak, with a 51.1% win probability.
Everton, under David Moyes, have hit a rough patch, claiming just one win in their last 10 outings (six draws, three losses). Their chances of winning at Craven Cottage sit at only 23.7%, especially concerning given their poor record in London: one win in 10, with just five goals scored.
.Ipswich Town vs Brentford:
Brentford head to already-relegated Ipswich as favorites, with a 55.4% chance of victory. Thomas Frank’s men are riding high after scoring 10 goals in three consecutive wins, including a memorable 4-0 thrashing of Manchester United.
They edged Ipswich 4-3 earlier this season and are looking to do the double over them for the first time. Ipswich have only managed one win in their last 16 league matches (four draws, 11 losses) and have dropped 10 of their last 11 at home.
Southampton vs Manchester City:
Manchester City, sitting third, travel to face bottom-of-the-table Southampton. The prediction model gives City a whopping 73.9% chance of winning the highest of the weekend.
City haven’t lost in 29 top-flight fixtures against teams starting the day in 20th (24 wins, 5 draws), winning the last 12 by an aggregate score of 44-1. Despite three past losses at St. Mary’s, Southampton are heavy underdogs here, with just an 11% shot at victory. A 29th loss would equal the Premier League record for most defeats in a 20-team season.
Wolves vs Brighton:
After their winning streak was snapped by Manchester City, Wolves return to Molineux looking to bounce back against Brighton. Wolves are given a 34.2% win probability but face a tough opponent in the Seagulls, who are slightly favored at 39.0%.
Brighton are unbeaten in six straight top-flight matches versus Wolves (four wins, two draws), scoring 18 goals in that span. The draw is a strong possibility too, with the model assigning it a 26.8% likelihood.
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa:
Saturday’s late kickoff pits Bournemouth against Aston Villa, with European ambitions on the line. The Cherries are slight favorites at 40.7%, but Villa aren’t far behind at 34.5%.
Bournemouth have a solid record against high-ranked teams, winning seven of 13 against sides above them in the table. However, Villa are resurging with seven wins from their last nine. It’s a tough one to call.
Newcastle United vs Chelsea:
Sunday opens with a heavyweight showdown at St. James’ Park. Newcastle and Chelsea are level on both points and goal difference in the race for the top five.
Newcastle are given the edge at 44.7%, riding their best 20-game form since 2002-03. Chelsea are given a 30.8% chance but are in good shape after three straight wins. Historically, the Blues have dominated this fixture, winning 31 times in the Premier League.
Manchester United vs West Ham:
Manchester United are desperate to snap a six-match winless run as they welcome West Ham to Old Trafford. They’re given a 46.9% chance to win but face a tricky test.
West Ham have won three of their last four league meetings with United and aim to complete a league double over them for the first time since 2006-07. Graham Potter has fared well recently against United, winning two of his last three meetings. Still, the Hammers have struggled under his leadership, collecting just 14 points since his arrival. Their win chance: 28.3%.
Nottingham Forest vs Leicester City:
Forest host relegated Leicester, aiming to stop their recent slide. With Champions League spots still within reach, they’re backed strongly with a 66.8% win probability- no home side is more favored this week.
Leicester, however, have just one away win in their last six, conceding 14 goals and scoring only twice. They did beat Southampton 2-0 last week, but their win probability here is just 14.8%.
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace:
Palace will try to keep their momentum going ahead of the FA Cup final by grabbing a result against struggling Tottenham. Spurs’ inconsistent form makes this contest difficult to call, but the data gives Palace a slight advantage at 38.4%.
With Tottenham likely to rotate, Crystal Palace could capitalize and build confidence before their Wembley clash with Manchester City.
Liverpool vs Arsenal:
Sunday’s closing fixture is the big one. Arsenal visit Anfield knowing they’re slipping into the reach of the chasing pack. But Liverpool, who’ve already secured the title, are still expected to take this one, with the supercomputer favoring them slightly.
This match could be decisive for Arsenal’s hopes of finishing second, and while Liverpool have little left to play for, their form remains strong.
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