Serie A Title Race on a Knife Edge as Inter and Napoli Battle for Glory
The Serie A title race, once leaning in Inter Milan’s favor, is now wide open. For much of the season, Simone Inzaghi’s team held a slim lead over Napoli, often three points clear. But that cushion has vanished, and with five games left, both sides are locked at 71 points.
Inter’s recent form has been shaky. They threw away a two-goal lead in a 2-2 draw against Parma, followed by a solid 3-1 win over Cagliari. But the real blow came in Bologna, where Riccardo Orsolini’s last-gasp overhead kick handed them a 1-0 defeat. That loss was followed by a demoralizing 3-0 hammering by AC Milan in the Coppa Italia semi-finals.
Napoli have pounced. With no distractions from European competitions, they secured back-to-back wins over Empoli and Monza. Under Antonio Conte’s guidance, they are gathering steam just as Inter begin to falter.
The Supercomputer’s Verdict
Opta’s supercomputer has simulated the final stretch of the season 10,000 times. The result is almost a dead heat. Inter win the title in 51.0 percent of simulations. Napoli win in 48.7 percent. Atalanta, the only other team with even a sliver of hope, managed to lift the title in just 0.3 percent of outcomes.
The predicted final points total? Inter finish with an average of 81.9. Napoli finish with 81.8. That 0.1-point difference reflects just how close this race is.
Play-Off on the Cards
If both teams finish level on points, Serie A will not use goal difference to decide the champion. Since the 2022 season, the league introduced a play-off rule. In case of a tie for the title or relegation, a one-game play-off is held. That scenario is now a real possibility.
Fixture Difficulty Favors Napoli
Looking at their final five matches, Napoli have the easier schedule. Their remaining opponents have an average Opta Power Ranking score of 83, the lowest in Serie A. Their most difficult matches, against Torino and Genoa, are both at home.
Inter face stiffer competition. Their opponents average 86.7 on the Power Rankings. Games against Roma and Lazio at San Siro could prove tricky. Inter also have to navigate a Champions League semi-final clash with Barcelona, which adds further strain.
Who Has the Edge
On paper, both teams should win most of their remaining games. But Napoli’s lighter schedule and lack of European duties give them a slight edge. Inter still have the squad depth, but their fixture load and recent stumbles suggest trouble.
One thing is certain. Whether it ends on the final day or goes to a dramatic one-off play-off, the Serie A title race is heading for a blockbuster finish.
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