Who will win the first expanded 32-team FIFA Club World Cup in the United States running from June 14 to July 13? Opta’s supercomputer has already simulated the tournament 10 000 times and calculated the following probabilities:
Headline favourites-
Paris Saint‑Germain: 18 .5 percent chance to lift the trophy. PSG enter their first Club World Cup fresh from a 5‑0 Champions League final win over Inter. They reach the last 16 in 91 .6 percent of simulations, the quarterfinals in 75 .4 percent, semifinals in 49 .2 percent, and the final in 30 .9 percent.
Manchester City: 17 .8 percent tournament win probability. The defending Club World Cup champions boast a 97 .2 percent chance to reach the last 16, a 71 .3 percent chance to top their group, and a 29 .6 percent probability of reaching the final. Pep Guardiola has won this competition four times across three clubs.
Bayern Munich: 12 .8 percent chance. Two‑time winners Bayern are expected to finish in the top two of their group 93 .3 percent of the time. They have a 23 .7 percent chance of reaching the final.
Inter Milan: 12 .3 percent chance. Despite a turbulent end to the season and coach Simone Inzaghi’s departure, Inter top their group in 79 .0 percent of simulations and make the quarterfinals in 74 .4 percent.
Real Madrid: 9 .8 percent chance. Under new manager Xabi Alonso and with new signing Trent Alexander‑Arnold alongside Kylian Mbappé and Vinícius Júnior, Real top their group in 76 .4 percent of scenarios and reach the quarterfinals in 55 .2 percent.
Chelsea: 8 .5 percent chance. Champions in 2021, Chelsea are virtually guaranteed to make the top two in Group D (93 .4 percent) and have a 56 .0 percent likelihood of reaching the quarterfinals.
Next contenders
Borussia Dortmund: 5 .4 percent chance. Friendly draw gives them a strong shot at reaching the round of 16 with a 61 .1 percent chance to make the quarterfinals.
Atlético Madrid: 5 .1 percent chance. A possible round‑of‑16 matchup against a weaker Group A runner‑up gives them a good chance.
Juventus: 3 .6 percent chance with an 87 .4 percent chance of passing the group stage.
Benfica: 3 .3 percent chance with an 81 .7 percent likelihood of reaching the round of 16.
Other teams with outside chances include Porto (0 .6 percent), Al Hilal, Inter Miami, River Plate, Palmeiras, and Flamengo. Al‑Hilal qualifies for the knockout rounds in over 50 percent of simulations. Messi and Inter Miami prepare to stun on US soil. River Plate have a 19 .7 percent chance of reaching the quarterfinals.
Underdogs with at least a third‑round chance are Al Ahly, LAFC, Mamelodi Sundowns, Fluminense, and Monterrey.
These figures are based on team strength, recent form, group draws, and knockout matchups. They will be updated throughout the tournament.
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