The 2025 FIFA Club World Cup knockout rounds continue with a thrilling fixture between Benfica and Chelsea at the Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte. While Benfica surprised many by finishing top of their group, their reward is a tough last-16 battle against Enzo Maresca’s Chelsea.
Form and historical edge
Benfica pulled off a gritty 1-0 win over Bayern Munich to seal first place in Group C, defying the odds. Yet despite their impressive start, they now face a Chelsea side that has traditionally had their number. The Blues boast a perfect record against Benfica, including a UEFA Champions League quarter-final sweep in 2012 and a Europa League final triumph in 2013.
For Benfica, history against English clubs isn’t encouraging either. Since defeating Tottenham 3-1 in 2014, they’ve failed to win in their last seven meetings with Premier League sides (three draws, four defeats).
Chelsea’s revival
Though Chelsea stumbled to Flamengo in the group stage, their recent form under Maresca has been encouraging. After a rocky winter stretch with only 3 wins in 12 games, they’ve bounced back strong, winning 16 of their last 22 across all competitions. The resurgence has seen them score 38 goals while keeping 12 clean sheets.
Midfield playmaker Enzo Fernández, once a Benfica fan favorite, is pivotal for Chelsea. His creativity was on display again in their 3-0 win over Espérance, where he provided two assists, bringing his tally to 16 under Maresca.
Benfica’s key man
Veteran defender Nicolás Otamendi remains crucial to Benfica’s defensive strength. The Argentine has been outstanding at the back, winning 29 duels in Group C, the most by any player, and holding a duel success rate of over 80 percent.
Benfica have often done well at this stage in major competitions, progressing from 10 of their last 12 last-16 ties across international tournaments. Still, their recent 4-1 aggregate defeat to Barcelona in the Champions League is a reminder of their limitations.
Prediction: Who has the edge
Based on 10,000 match simulations by Opta:
Chelsea win in regular time: 45.1 percent
Benfica win in regular time: 29.1 percent
Draw (extra time or penalties): 25.7 percent
Overall progression chances: Chelsea 58.7 percent, Benfica 41.3 percent
Chelsea enter this tie as slight favorites, thanks to their form and squad depth. But Benfica have shown they can compete with the best, and another disciplined performance could see them pull off another surprise.
Predicted lineups
Benfica squad highlights
Anatoliy Trubin, Nicolás Otamendi, Ángel Di María, Orkun Kökçü, Kerem Aktürkoğlu, Andrea Belotti
Coach: Bruno Lage
Chelsea squad list:
Robert Sánchez, Enzo Fernández, Cole Palmer, Christopher Nkunku, Moisés Caicedo, Reece James
Coach: Enzo Maresca
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