The 2025-26 Serie A season begins this weekend with Genoa hosting Lecce and defending champions Napoli traveling to Sassuolo. Antonio Conte’s men are coming off a dramatic title race, edging Internazionale on the final day thanks to goals from Scott McTominay and Romelu Lukaku in a 2-0 win over Cagliari at the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium.
For Inter, it was a bitter collapse. Simone Inzaghi’s side not only lost the Scudetto by a single point, but were also humiliated 5-0 by Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League final and knocked out of the Coppa Italia by rivals AC Milan. Inzaghi has since departed, and Cristian Chivu, a former Inter defender, steps into the dugout hoping to restore pride and silverware to the Nerazzurri.
Elsewhere, Roma narrowly missed out on Champions League qualification last season but now look to move forward under Gian Piero Gasperini, who left Atalanta after nearly a decade in charge. Lazio and AC Milan, both of whom failed to qualify for Europe, will lean on the experience of familiar managers—Maurizio Sarri returns to the Biancocelesti, while Massimiliano Allegri resumes command at Milan, the club he guided to the title back in 2011.
There are new faces in the division as well. Sassuolo and Pisa earned automatic promotion from Serie B, while Cremonese joined them after beating Spezia in the playoff final.
Galaxy Sports ran 10,000 simulations to forecast how the season could unfold, and the numbers make for interesting reading.
Inter are projected as the frontrunners to reclaim the crown, carrying a 35.9 percent chance of winning the title under Chivu. Last season they led the league in goals scored with 79 and had the second-best defense after Napoli. Lautaro Martínez and Marcus Thuram are again expected to be central figures in attack.
Napoli, despite being champions, are rated at only 13.7 percent to retain their crown. Conte has strengthened with Noa Lang, Lorenzo Lucca, and Kevin De Bruyne. De Bruyne’s playmaking reputation speaks for itself; he produced more assists than anyone in Europe’s top leagues during his time at Manchester City. Lucca, meanwhile, is the youngest player to reach 20 Serie A goals over the past two seasons and one of the division’s strongest aerial threats. Conte’s record in Italy is outstanding, but juggling domestic duties with Champions League football could complicate Napoli’s campaign.
Atalanta, now without Gasperini and last season’s top scorer Mateo Retegui, remain a dangerous outsider. Galaxy Sports simulations give them a 12.8 percent chance of winning the Scudetto. Retegui’s departure to Saudi Arabia leaves a hole after his 25-goal season, while speculation around Ademola Lookman’s future could further unsettle the squad. Still, under Ivan Juric, they showed last year that they can win big games, particularly away from home.
Roma and Juventus are given outside shots of 9.9 and 8.2 percent respectively. Roma’s hopes are boosted by a fit-again Paulo Dybala and the arrival of Evan Ferguson on loan from Brighton, while Gasperini will mark his 600th Serie A appearance in the opening game against Bologna. Juventus, now under Igor Tudor, strengthened with Canadian striker Jonathan David, who has hit double digits for goals in seven straight seasons in Ligue 1.
The race for Champions League football promises to be tight. According to Galaxy Sports, Roma hold a 45.9 percent chance of making the top four, Juventus 39.7 percent, and Milan 36.7 percent. Milan, disappointed by their eighth-place finish last season, have signed Luka Modric and Ardon Jashari to rebuild their midfield. Lazio and Coppa Italia winners Bologna are dark horses, rated just outside the favorites for Europe’s elite competition.
At the bottom end of the table, the relegation battle looks wide open. All three promoted teams are expected to struggle. Pisa, returning to the top flight for the first time since 1991, have a 38.2 percent chance of going back down, followed by Cremonese at 37.4 percent and Lecce at 34.8 percent. Lecce only avoided relegation last season on the final day, winning at Lazio despite playing the second half with ten men, but their main striker Nikola Krstovic will once again need to deliver goals. Sassuolo, Verona, and Cagliari are expected to survive, though not comfortably.
After running every possible fixture thousands of times, Galaxy Sports produced an average points table. Inter came out on top with 76.6 points, followed by Napoli on 68.7 and Atalanta on 68.5. Roma complete the Champions League positions with 66.8 points, ahead of Juventus and Milan. At the other end, Pisa, Cremonese, and Lecce sit in the relegation spots.
The Galaxy Sports model uses betting market odds, historical records, and team performance metrics to assign probabilities to each match. These probabilities are then simulated 10,000 times to create a statistical picture of the season, from title contenders to relegation favorites.
With a fresh season about to begin, Inter are tipped to rise again, Napoli face the challenge of defending their crown under heavier competition, and the likes of Atalanta, Roma, and Juventus will be pushing hard to disrupt the balance.
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