The Premier League offers its first major clash of the season when Liverpool host Arsenal at Anfield on Sunday. Both teams have started strongly, and this encounter is already being billed as an early title test.

Liverpool’s season so far
Liverpool have taken maximum points from their first two games, although their victories have been far from routine. They surrendered a two-goal advantage against Bournemouth on the opening weekend before Federico Chiesa came off the bench to change the game in their favour. Their second outing was even more dramatic, as Newcastle United fought back to level from two goals down, only for 16-year-old Rio Ngumoha to score a stoppage-time winner. Ngumoha’s strike made him the fourth youngest goalscorer in Premier League history and the second youngest to net a match-winning goal after Wayne Rooney.

That late strike also reinforced Liverpool’s reputation for last-minute drama. Their 46 winners in the 90th minute or later is a Premier League record, with Arsenal in second place on 34. Ngumoha also became the second youngest debut goalscorer in the league at 16 years and 361 days, behind James Vaughan’s record of 16 years and 270 days.

Under Arne Slot, Liverpool have been relentless in front of goal. They have scored in 36 consecutive league games, the third longest streak in the competition’s history. Only Arsenal between 2001 and 2002 and Tottenham between 2023 and 2024 have longer runs. The Reds have also scored in 39 of their 40 league games under Slot, the highest rate of any manager with at least 15 matches in the Premier League. Since the start of last season Liverpool have scored 93 goals, 17 more than any other top-flight team, with the highest expected goals total of 86.4.

Liverpool’s finishing was clinical at Newcastle. They scored three goals from just five attempts, with their second effort coming from Hugo Ekitiké early in the second half and their third not arriving until Ngumoha’s strike deep in stoppage time. Their ability to score late has repeatedly rescued them, but the defensive lapses that allowed Newcastle back into the game remain a concern. Slot admitted his team struggled with Newcastle’s physicality, something that will also be tested by Arsenal.

Arsenal’s strong start:
Arsenal have opened their campaign with back-to-back clean sheets, beating Manchester United 1-0 and Leeds United 5-0. They are one of only two teams in the division yet to concede, alongside Tottenham. Their defensive organisation remains the foundation of Mikel Arteta’s side, while summer signings have given them fresh options.

Viktor Gyökeres scored his first goal in the demolition of Leeds, while Martín Zubimendi has slotted into midfield and Eberechi Eze provides attacking creativity. Jurriën Timber has also made an impact at both ends of the field, with two goals and three assists in his last five league appearances. Against Leeds he became the first defender to score twice and create a goal in a single Premier League match since Martin Škrtel achieved the feat for Liverpool in 2014.

The Leeds game came at a cost. Bukayo Saka limped off with a hamstring problem and is set to miss up to a month, while Martin Ødegaard suffered a shoulder injury that puts his involvement in doubt. When Saka does not feature Arsenal’s average goals per game drops from two to 1.5. However, Noni Madueke is ready to step in and Eze could also make his debut if Ødegaard is unavailable.

Set pieces continue to be a major weapon for Arsenal: Since the beginning of the 2023-24 season they have scored 33 goals from corners, more than any other club in Europe’s top five leagues. They have also scored from a corner in three consecutive league games, something they have never managed in four straight matches. If Arsenal secure another clean sheet and win at Anfield, it would be the first time since 1924-25 that they begin a league season with three victories without conceding.

Head-to-head record:
Liverpool have failed to beat Arsenal in their last six league meetings, drawing four and losing two. It is their longest winless run in the fixture since they went eight without victory between 2007 and 2011. Arsenal, however, have their own poor record at Anfield. They have not won there since September 2012, a run of 12 league visits without a victory. The last four meetings at Anfield in all competitions have been drawn, including the 2-2 contest last May after Arsenal came back from two goals down.

Mohamed Salah remains the player most likely to punish Arsenal. He has scored 11 times against them in the Premier League, a tally only surpassed by Harry Kane with 14 and Wayne Rooney with 12. Salah’s goals include one for Chelsea, while ten have been for Liverpool. Roberto Firmino is the only Liverpool player to score more against the Gunners solely for the Reds, also with 11.

This fixture has historically produced goals. Only Liverpool against Tottenham has seen more in the Premier League era than Liverpool against Arsenal. A total of 198 goals have been scored in their league meetings, and since the 2015-16 season no fixture has produced more goals, with 78 in 20 matches.

Galaxy predictions:
Opta’s supercomputer makes Liverpool favourites, giving them a 44.9 percent chance of victory. Arsenal are rated at 29.7 percent, while the probability of a draw is 25.4 percent. Looking at the longer term, the same simulations project Liverpool as the more likely champions, winning the title in 39.5 percent of simulations compared to Arsenal’s 31.4 percent.

Predicted lineups:
Liverpool are expected to start with Alisson in goal, Ibrahima Konaté and Virgil van Dijk in central defence, and Milos Kerkez on the left. Dominik Szoboszlai, Ryan Gravenberch and Curtis Jones are likely to form the midfield three. Mohamed Salah, Florian Wirtz and Cody Gakpo should line up in attack, supporting Hugo Ekitiké.

Arsenal may field David Raya in goal, with Jurriën Timber, William Saliba, Gabriel Magalhães and Riccardo Calafiori in defence. Declan Rice, Martín Zubimendi and Ethan Nwaneri could form the midfield unit, while Noni Madueke, Gabriel Martinelli and Viktor Gyökeres are expected to start in attack.

So?
Liverpool’s attack has been unstoppable under Slot, while Arsenal have built their progress on defensive discipline and organisation. The champions remain favourites on home soil, yet injuries to Arsenal’s key players may force Arteta to rely even more on his side’s resilience. With both teams among the favourites for the title and recent history showing this fixture almost always delivers goals, Sunday’s meeting promises to be one of the highlights of the season.