Analysis: Manchester City vs Manchester United

Manchester City vs Manchester United: Six Subplots That Could Shape the Derby

Where will the Manchester derby be decided on Sunday? Here are six key areas that could prove decisive as Manchester City host Manchester United at the Etihad.

The first derby of the 2025-26 campaign comes with both teams already under pressure.

City threw away a lead at Brighton in their last outing and have now lost two of their first three Premier League games. This is the first time they have started so poorly since 2004-05, a season that came well before Sheikh Mansour’s ownership changed the club’s direction.

United finally collected their first win just before the international break, although they needed a controversial penalty in the ninety-seventh minute to edge past Burnley. That result offered some relief after an inconsistent start to the season. An impressive performance against Arsenal was quickly forgotten following a humiliating EFL Cup exit at the hands of fourth-tier Grimsby Town.

Which of these two rivals will harness the occasion of a Manchester derby to spark their season? Here are the factors that could matter most.

Would a United Win Really Be a Shock?
Yes, it would.

This match puts last season’s third-placed team, who invested more than one hundred and fifty million pounds in summer transfers, against the side that finished fifteenth. United have their own new signings but still look riddled with problems. For that reason City are firm favourites. The Opta supercomputer gives Guardiola’s side a sixty five point six percent chance of winning.

History does suggest United could spring a surprise. They are responsible for twenty five percent of Guardiola’s home defeats in the Premier League, having beaten him four times at the Etihad out of sixteen attempts. The most recent of those came last December in a dramatic comeback.

Away wins have often defined this rivalry. Since 2015-16, the home side has won only six of the twenty league meetings, with four ending in draws and ten in defeats. Only Crystal Palace against Liverpool has produced more away wins in that time, with twelve.

United also enter the derby on a four-match unbeaten run against City in all competitions, a streak that includes their famous FA Cup final victory in May 2024.

City’s own form is concerning. Guardiola has made the worst start to a league season in his career, collecting only three points from a possible nine. According to Premier Injuries, the champions could be without as many as ten first-team players, with Omar Marmoush the latest casualty after injuring his knee on international duty with Egypt.

United have been less likely winners in previous derbies and still found a way. It would not be outrageous if they managed it again this weekend.

City’s Poor Form Did Not Begin This Season
The current struggles are part of a longer trend.

If you take the last thirty eight Premier League matches, which is the length of a full season, City would sit fourth with sixty five points. That total leaves them nineteen behind Liverpool, who have collected eighty four in the same stretch.

The rolling thirty eight-game average for City is the lowest since November 2016. At that time Guardiola had been in charge for only eleven league games, and much of the poor average was inherited from Manuel Pellegrini’s final season.

Since Guardiola arrived in England he has lost forty nine of his three hundred and forty five Premier League matches, with two hundred and forty seven wins and forty nine draws. Almost twenty two percent of those defeats have come since last November, a total of eleven. If City lose this derby it would be his fiftieth league defeat. He would still trail Sir Alex Ferguson who took three hundred and sixty seven games to reach that number, but Guardiola had only thirty eight defeats as recently as ten months ago. He will not want to suffer his half-century so quickly. United would be delighted to inflict it.

Reasons City Can Stay Positive
It feels unusual to reach this point in a preview of a Manchester derby without listing clear advantages for City. Despite their problems the evidence still points in their favour.

City remain the stronger team overall. Only weeks ago they dismantled Wolves four-nil and talk of them dominating the league again was loud. Since then they have lost to Tottenham and Brighton, but their squad is filled with world-class players who should return to form.

The table shows them in thirteenth place with two defeats from three games, yet the expected points model tells another story.

This model uses expected goals data to simulate each match ten thousand times and calculate the proportion of possible wins, draws and defeats. Based on those probabilities City should currently be sitting fourth.

They have underperformed both in attack and in defence. Erling Haaland has struggled in the league but his five goals for Norway against Moldova suggest he is ready to explode again. At the other end, the signing of a top-class goalkeeper could solve their defensive vulnerability.

Goalkeepers in the Spotlight
The goalkeeping situation adds intrigue on both sides.

United will travel without André Onana, who has joined Trabzonspor on loan. Altay Bayindir is expected to start, although his reliability is questioned. His backup is Senne Lammens, a completely untested signing.

City have seen the departure of Ederson and the arrival of Gianluigi Donnarumma from Paris Saint-Germain. The Italian international now carries the responsibility of stabilising Guardiola’s defence.