We look ahead to Tuesday night at the San Mamés where Athletic Club welcome Arsenal in the opening round of the Champions League group stage. The Gunners enter as favourites to launch another serious European campaign.
Athletic Club versus Arsenal: Key figures
According to the Opta supercomputer Arsenal have a 45.3 percent chance of taking all three points.
A victory would mark a European first, as no side has ever managed six consecutive wins against Spanish opponents in the European Cup or Champions League.
Viktor Gyökeres was directly involved in seven goals during his eight Champions League appearances last season.
The opening match pairs one of the competition’s most highly regarded teams with an outsider that still carries plenty of pedigree. Athletic Club may consider the outsider tag unfair, given their fourth-place finish in La Liga and run to the Europa League semi-finals, but the simulations run by Opta did not show much hope. Out of 10,000 tournament runs, the Basque side lifted the trophy only 0.5 percent of the time.
Their difficult path is part of the reason. Our Power Rankings show they face the joint-eighth hardest fixture set, while Arsenal sit at the opposite end with the second-easiest path on paper. That is why the Gunners are priced just behind Liverpool as favourites for the 2025–26 Champions League crown.
Arsenal’s record in the early phases of the competition backs up their reputation. Only Real Madrid collected more points in the last two group campaigns, with Arsenal winning 10 and losing just two out of 14 games. Their defeats last year were all against finalists, twice against Paris Saint-Germain and once against Inter.
Defensive discipline has been the foundation. Since Arteta took charge Arsenal have allowed only 18 goals in 24 matches in the Champions League, averaging 0.75 conceded per game. Whether they can maintain that on Tuesday without William Saliba remains uncertain. Martin Ødegaard is not expected to recover in time after his weekend injury against Nottingham Forest. Christian Nørgaard is close to a return but Havertz, Gabriel Jesus and Saka are all unavailable for this trip.
Few managers can boast a defensive record as good as Arteta’s in this competition. Among coaches with 20 or more matches, only Capello with Milan, Van Gaal with Ajax, Rijkaard with Barcelona and Valverde with Barcelona can claim fewer goals conceded per game.
The irony is that Valverde now leads Athletic Club. He too has injury problems. Iñigo Lekue might come back but Nico Williams looks set to miss out, and Unai Egiluz with Yeray Álvarez remain long-term absentees.
Athletic had opened their domestic campaign well, defeating Sevilla, Rayo Vallecano and Real Betis, only to fall 1-0 at home to Alavés at the weekend, undone by an Alex Berenguer own goal.
Valverde carries solid Champions League pedigree. His Barcelona sides won two La Liga titles, and across 42 Champions League matches as a coach he has lost only nine, a record bettered among Spanish coaches only by Pep Guardiola. He also guided Athletic in the 2014–15 edition, their last appearance in the competition. Since returning to San Mamés in 2022 his side have won six of seven European matches there, though the lone defeat came against Manchester United. That is not a promising omen when facing a stronger English side in Arsenal.
Arsenal meanwhile arrive with Gyökeres in prolific European form. He scored six and assisted one in eight appearances for Sporting last season, averaging a goal contribution every 87 minutes. Only Saka achieved a similar ratio in the competition last year.
If Arsenal succeed, they will carve out a new record with six consecutive wins over Spanish opponents. Real Madrid, Sevilla and Girona have all fallen to them in recent seasons. Athletic Club could be the next to join that list.
Head to head history
This is the first competitive clash between the two clubs. Athletic have only met English opposition twice before in the European Cup, losing to Manchester United in the 1956–57 quarter finals and to Liverpool in the 1983–84 round of 16.
In August the two teams did meet in a friendly final at the Emirates Cup. Arsenal were 3-0 winners with goals from Gyökeres, Saka and Havertz. The Gunners also carry momentum from Spain, having won all three of their recent visits against La Liga sides, beating Girona, Real Madrid and Sevilla all by 2-1 scorelines.
Prediction
We calls this one of the tightest fixtures of the opening week. Arsenal’s 45.3 percent chance of winning makes them favourites but the combined odds for Athletic or a draw make it more likely they will not leave with victory. Athletic’s chances stand at 28.2 percent with the draw given a 26.5 percent probability.
Expected lineups
Athletic Club: Unai Simón, Jesús Areso, Dani Vivian, Aitor Paredes, Yuri Berchiche, Íñigo Ruiz de Galarreta, Mikel Jauregizar, Iñaki Williams, Oihan Sancet, Alex Berenguer, Gorka Guruzeta
Manager: Ernesto Valverde
Arsenal: David Raya, Jurriën Timber, Cristhian Mosquera, Gabriel Magalhães, Riccardo Calafiori, Mikel Merino, Martín Zubimendi, Declan Rice, Noni Madueke, Eberechi Eze, Viktor Gyökeres
Manager: Mikel Arteta
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings score more than 10,000 domestic clubs across the world, rating them on a scale from zero to 100. Zero represents the weakest side in world football, 100 the very best.
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