With the support of the our powered galaxysportsxt supercomputer, here are the latest projections for every UEFA Champions League clash in the 2025–26 season.
The galaxysportsxt model will run all season to provide match forecasts and long-term outlooks, simulating thousands of outcomes before every game.
Paris Saint-Germain finally lifted their first Champions League trophy last season with a 5-0 demolition of Inter Milan. Many see them as the team to beat, but the galaxysportsxt model places others slightly higher in the pecking order.
Liverpool and Arsenal are given strong chances to challenge, even though both were knocked out by PSG last season. They headline a record English contingent of six sides in this year’s competition, joined by Manchester City, Chelsea, Newcastle United and Europa League holders Tottenham Hotspur.
Real Madrid remain the kings of Europe with 15 European Cups and Champions League titles combined. Xabi Alonso now has the chance to add to that legacy in his debut campaign as manager of Los Blancos. Bayern Munich, Barcelona, Juventus, Inter, Atlético Madrid and Napoli also enter with ambitions of going all the way.
Matchday One of the new 36-team league phase begins across Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Below are the projections for the opening round, courtesy of galaxysportsxt.
Tuesday 16 September
Athletic Club vs Arsenal
Arsenal begin their campaign at San Mamés, the same ground where Spurs lifted the Europa League last season. This is their first competitive meeting with Athletic. The supercomputer favors Arsenal with a 45.3 percent chance of victory. Athletic, who have won six of seven European games at home under Ernesto Valverde, were given a 28.2 percent chance, while a draw landed at 26.5 percent.
PSV vs Union Saint-Gilloise
Union Saint-Gilloise step onto the Champions League stage for the first time. Belgian sides rarely win their debut matches, and the odds lean heavily toward PSV. The Dutch champions claimed victory in 51.1 percent of simulations, with USG winning 25.3 percent and 23.6 percent ending level.
Real Madrid vs Marseille
Madrid kick off at the Bernabéu where they almost never falter in opening fixtures. They have won 23 of 26 European openers at home and never lost to Marseille. Alonso’s team came out winners in 67.1 percent of simulations. Marseille succeeded in just 15.4 percent, with 17.4 percent drawn.
Tottenham vs Villarreal
Tottenham return to the Champions League via their Europa League triumph and meet Villarreal. The Spanish club has never beaten an English side in the competition. Spurs were given exactly 50 percent to win, with Villarreal taking 25.3 percent and a draw at 24.7 percent.
Juventus vs Borussia Dortmund
A rematch of the 1997 final. Juventus have never lost an opening home fixture in the European Cup or Champions League. They were predicted to win 46.5 percent of the time, draw 25.4 percent, and Dortmund snatched victory in 28.1 percent.
Benfica vs Qarabag
The first ever Portuguese versus Azerbaijani matchup in this competition. Qarabag have not won in six past group games. Benfica were overwhelming favorites with a 73.9 percent chance of victory. Qarabag managed only 10.2 percent.
Wednesday 17 September
Slavia Prague vs Bodø/Glimt
The Norwegians make their group stage debut after a strong Europa League run last year. Slavia are the more experienced side but have won only once in their last ten continental games. Even so, they were favored in 50.2 percent of simulations, Bodø/Glimt in 26.9 percent and a draw in 22.9 percent.
Olympiakos vs Pafos
Another debutant appears as Pafos represent Cyprus. Greek sides have historically dominated this fixture type and Olympiakos were clear favorites in 62.8 percent of sims. Pafos still earned respect with 16.7 percent wins and 20.5 percent draws.
Paris Saint-Germain vs Atalanta
The reigning champions begin their defense against the Europa League winners. Champions rarely lose their opening fixtures and PSG were rated to win 62.1 percent of the time. Atalanta pulled off an upset in 17.8 percent of sims, while 20.1 percent finished level.
Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid
Liverpool are tipped as title favorites but face tricky opponents in Simeone’s Atlético. The Reds won 56.9 percent of simulations. Atlético managed 21.4 percent while 21.7 percent ended even.
Bayern Munich vs Chelsea
A repeat of the 2012 final, hosted in the same stadium. Bayern dominate at this stage historically and were winners in 55.6 percent of sims. Chelsea succeeded in 22.6 percent, with a draw in 21.8 percent.
Ajax vs Inter Milan
Two giants clash as Ajax chase their first ever Champions League win over Inter. The Italians came out on top in 49.3 percent of sims. Ajax succeeded 26.5 percent of the time and 24.3 percent were drawn.
Thursday 18 September
Copenhagen vs Bayer Leverkusen
Leverkusen enter under new manager Kasper Hjulmand. His side won 41.4 percent of sims while Copenhagen had 31.8 percent and 26.8 percent ended even.
Club Brugge vs Monaco
Brugge thrashed Rangers in qualifying but face a tough opener. Monaco have struggled away from home yet edged simulations with 38.2 percent to Brugge’s 37.4 percent.
Newcastle United vs Barcelona
A welcome back for Newcastle as they host Barcelona. Barca were predicted winners in 42.6 percent of sims, Newcastle in 32.8 percent and draws in 24.6 percent.
Manchester City vs Napoli
Kevin De Bruyne returns to the Etihad in Napoli colors under Antonio Conte. Guardiola’s men won in 54.9 percent of scenarios. Napoli took 22 percent and 23 percent were drawn.
Sporting CP vs Kairat Almaty
Kazakhstan’s Kairat arrive as surprise debutants. Sporting are overwhelming favorites with 80.9 percent. Kairat managed just 6.9 percent.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Galatasaray
Frankfurt open against Galatasaray. The Germans took 45.2 percent, the Turks 30.7 percent and 24.1 percent of sims ended in a draw.
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