Newcastle vs Barcelona Preview: Can Howe’s Magpies Defy the Odds at St James’ Park?
Newcastle United face a tough opening to their Champions League campaign when La Liga champions Barcelona visit St James’ Park on Thursday night. Eddie Howe’s side are struggling with a poor run in Europe and the absence of Alexander Isak makes this challenge even harder.
The Numbers Behind the Clash
Opta’s supercomputer simulations give Barcelona the upper hand with a 42.5 percent chance of victory across 10,000 match projections. Newcastle were successful in 32.6 percent of the simulations, while the chance of a draw is placed at 24.9 percent.
The Magpies have managed only one win in their last eight Champions League fixtures. That single success came in a 4–1 triumph over Paris Saint-Germain in 2023. Howe will hope to summon that same level of intensity from the St James’ Park crowd to shift the odds in his favour.
Life After Isak
Isak’s record transfer to Liverpool has left Newcastle without their most reliable source of goals. At present, only three players in Howe’s squad have scored in this competition. Joelinton, Dan Burn and Fabian Schär remain the only members of the team with Champions League goals to their names.
Recent signings may help to change that narrative. Nick Woltemade opened his Premier League account on debut, while Yoanne Wissa and Anthony Elanga are expected to add attacking options once fully settled. Howe’s squad is not without problems, as Jacob Ramsey is ruled out with injury and Wissa has been recovering from a knee issue picked up on international duty.
Barcelona’s Firepower
Barcelona enter this match full of confidence after a 6–0 thrashing of Valencia. Fermín López, Raphinha and Robert Lewandowski all found the net twice in that victory.
Raphinha in particular continues to excel on the European stage. Last season he produced 21 direct goal involvements in the Champions League with 13 goals and eight assists. He also holds the best assist-per-game ratio in the competition’s history, averaging nearly one every other game.
On-loan forward Marcus Rashford is another name to watch. The England international has scored five goals and registered three assists in 11 career starts against Newcastle. His record includes two goals and two assists in six games at St James’ Park.
Young star Lamine Yamal could also make history if he recovers in time. The 17-year-old has already played 23 times in the competition. His next appearance would make him the youngest footballer to reach 24 Champions League matches, overtaking PSG’s Warren Zaïre-Emery.
History Between the Sides
This will be the fifth competitive meeting between Newcastle and Barcelona. Newcastle claimed a famous 3–2 victory in 1997, but Barcelona won the three encounters that followed.
Barcelona also enjoy strong form against English opponents with 12 victories in their last 16 Champions League matches against Premier League teams. Newcastle do have reason for optimism, having won their last three matches against Spanish clubs in European competition.
Predicted Lineups
Newcastle United (Howe): Pope; Trippier, Schär, Burn, Livramento; Bruno Guimarães, Tonali, Joelinton; Murphy, Barnes; Woltemade.
Barcelona (Flick): García; Koundé, Eric García, Cubarsí, Martín; Pedri, Casadó; Raphinha, Fermín López, Rashford; Lewandowski.
The Verdict
Barcelona travel to England with momentum, experience and a wealth of attacking quality. Newcastle will rely on the power of their home support to level the contest. If they can recreate the fire that brought down PSG in 2023, St James’ Park could witness another famous night.
Prediction: Barcelona to edge the contest, but Newcastle will not make it easy.
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