Today, Old Trafford hosts one of the Premier League’s most anticipated fixtures: Manchester United against Chelsea. With Ruben Amorim’s side struggling for form, the pressure is mounting- can they deliver the performance fans are craving?
Manchester United vs Chelsea: Key Stats
According to our supercomputer, Chelsea are the favorites, winning 46.8% of pre-match simulations. United are predicted to win 28.7%, while 24.5% of the simulations suggest a draw.
Bruno Fernandes could make his 200th Premier League appearance, becoming the 28th player to reach that milestone for Manchester United.
United are unbeaten in their last 12 Premier League home games against Chelsea (W5 D7) since a 1-0 defeat in May 2013.
Manchester United: Amorim Under Pressure
Ruben Amorim is sticking to his principles, but results are testing patience. United have lost two of their four Premier League games this season and were eliminated from the EFL Cup by Grimsby Town. Their only victory came against Burnley, which needed a late Bruno Fernandes penalty to secure a 3-2 win despite a dominant performance.
United were overpowered in their last match against Manchester City, going down 3-0 at the Etihad. With no midweek EFL Cup or European fixtures, Amorim’s team have had time to reflect on their mistakes.
Last match: Man City 3-0 Man Utd
Chelsea: Palmer Leading the Charge
Chelsea were pegged back to a 2-2 draw by Brentford in their last league outing. Midweek, they fell 3-1 to Bayern Munich in the Champions League. Had they held on against Brentford, they could have temporarily topped the Premier League.
Cole Palmer made a big impact upon returning from injury, scoring just five minutes after coming off the bench against Brentford, his 50th club goal (44 for Chelsea, six for Manchester City). That was also his first open-play league goal since January against Bournemouth.
Palmer carried that form into the clash with Bayern, scoring a superb first-half goal and nearly adding a second, only for it to be ruled offside. He has now played 100 games for Chelsea, contributing directly to 73 goals (45 goals, 28 assists). Among Premier League players since his Chelsea debut in September 2023, only Mohamed Salah (97) and Erling Haaland (85) have more combined goals and assists.
Besides Palmer, João Pedro is a major threat. The £60 million signing from Brighton has scored twice and assisted three times this season. He has netted three goals in five league games against United-more than against any other side.
United vs Chelsea Form and Stats
- Since Amorim took charge at Matchday 12 last season, no ever-present Premier League team has performed worse than United: 31 points from 31 games with a -13 goal difference.
- Opta estimates United’s Champions League chances after the Man City defeat at just 3.4%, while the relegation probability stands at 12.3%.
- United have won two of their last three home league matches- the same number as in their previous 11 games at Old Trafford combined (W2 D2 L7)
- Despite scoring only five goals, United had 94 shots in their last four home games, hitting 20+ shots in every match. Their last consecutive 20+ shot streak at Old Trafford was between March and September 2012 (eight games).
- Expected goals (xG) this season: United 8.3 (second only to Man City, 8.5), but xG against 6.9 (worst defensive record after Burnley 9.4, Aston Villa 7.4, Wolves 7.2).
New signings Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha have made an immediate impact. Mbeumo has six goal contributions in seven Premier League appearances versus Chelsea (three goals, three assists), all at Stamford Bridge,tying the record for most goal contributions against a single opponent without scoring at home. Cunha has had the most shots on target without scoring (five) this season.
Fernandes could also reach a scoring milestone. In addition to 200 Premier League appearances, he has 51 assists for United (second only to David Beckham’s 62 in his first 200 games) and needs just one goal to reach 100 for the club. He currently leads the Premier League with 14 chances created, 10 from open play, though he has yet to record an assist this season.
Head-to-Head
United are unbeaten in 12 home league games against Chelsea (W5 D7) since May 2013.
Chelsea’s away win rate at Old Trafford is just 18% (6/33), their lowest against any side they’ve played 10+ times.
Chelsea are seeking consecutive league wins against United for the first time since a three-game streak between November 2009 and March 2011.
The fixture is the most drawn in Premier League history (27 times), with 14 draws at Old Trafford- only Everton vs Tottenham at Goodison Park has more draws at a single venue (17).
Prediction
The Opta supercomputer ran 10,000 simulations:
Chelsea win: 46.8%
United win: 28.7%
Draw: 24.5%
Predicted Lineups
Manchester United: Altay Bayindir; Leny Yoro, Matthijs de Ligt, Luke Shaw; Bruno Fernandes, Casemiro, Noussair Mazraoui, Patrick Dorgu; Bryan Mbeumo, Amad Diallo, Benjamin Sesko
Manager: Ruben Amorim
Chelsea: Robert Sánchez; Malo Gusto, Trevoh Chalobah, Tosin Adarabioyo, Marc Cucurella; Moisés Caicedo; Pedro Neto, Cole Palmer, Jamie Gittens; João Pedro
Manager: Enzo Maresca
Power Rankings
The Power Rankings assign a global ability score from 0 (worst) to 100 (best). Ahead of today’s kick-off, both United and Chelsea are ranked among the Premier League’s strongest sides.
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