The new UEFA Europa League season is here, and once again, the our supercomputer has run the numbers thousands of times to project who might lift the trophy in May 2026.
The competition kicks off on Wednesday, September 24, with nine fixtures, followed by nine more the next day. It’s the second year under the expanded 36-team league format, where every club plays eight matches. The top eight go straight into the round of 16, while those finishing 9th to 24th fight it out in a playoff for the remaining knockout places. Everyone else, the bottom 12 plus playoff losers, heads home early.
Last year’s champions, Tottenham Hotspur, are not involved this time around after moving up to the Champions League. Their manager on that memorable night in Bilbao, Ange Postecoglou, returns in charge of Nottingham Forest, giving him a shot at back-to-back titles with a new club. Another big storyline comes from Unai Emery, who has already lifted the trophy four times and now leads Aston Villa’s campaign.
The Favorites
Aston Villa, 23.3 percent chance:
Our model has Villa as the leading contender. Despite a poor start domestically, Emery’s record in Europe speaks for itself. Villa sit 12th in the Opta Power Rankings, higher than any other Europa League side, making them strong favorites. A win would mark their first continental title since 1982 and give Emery his fifth Europa League crown.
Roma, 13.0 percent chance:
Under Gian Piero Gasperini, the Serie A side could finally break their duck. Roma have lost two Europa League finals in 1991 and 2023 but, with Gasperini’s Atalanta pedigree and their Conference League triumph in 2022, they enter the season with serious belief.
Nottingham Forest, 10.2 percent chance:
Back in Europe for the first time since 1996, Forest benefit from Crystal Palace’s reshuffling into the Conference League. With Postecoglou now at the helm, they’re ranked third favorites, though still outsiders compared to Villa and Roma.
Other Contenders:
Lille, 8.1 percent
Strengthened by the arrival of Olivier Giroud, Lille look like France’s best hope.
Lyon, 6.7 percent:
Despite key summer departures, they have the third-easiest draw, which boosts their chances of topping the league phase.
Bologna, 5.7 percent:
Fresh off Coppa Italia success, Vincenzo Italiano’s side are steady outsiders.
FC Porto, 5.3 percent:
Francesco Farioli’s new era could bring surprise success.
Feyenoord, 5.1 percent:
Robin van Persie, who lifted this trophy as a player in 2002, now hunts it as coach.
Dark Horses:
Stuttgart, 3.2 percent and Real Betis, 3.1 percent lurk as potential spoilers.
Celtic, 2.2 percent, despite a brutal draw, have a better shot than rivals Rangers, 0.2 percent.
Fenerbahçe, 1.7 percent, now under Domenico Tedesco after Mourinho’s exit, dream of winning in Istanbul, where the final will be staged.
Other sides with at least a 1 percent chance include Crvena zvezda, Freiburg, Celta Vigo, Braga, and Genk.
Long Shots.
Teams like Dinamo Zagreb, 0.8 percent, Sturm Graz, Malmö, Ferencváros, 0.3 percent each, and Utrecht, 0.2 percent, are unlikely winners. The only side not registering a single win across 10,000 simulations is Go Ahead Eagles.
The road is long, the margins slim, but our supercomputer has spoken. Aston Villa lead the race, Roma and Forest follow closely, while plenty of dark horses wait in the wings.
By May, we’ll know if the data was right, or if the Europa League produces another unlikely fairytale.
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