UCL Analysis: Liverpool Seek Redemption in Istanbul as Galatasaray Aim to End Home Drought

Liverpool travel to Istanbul on Tuesday night looking to recover from their first defeat of the season when they face Galatasaray at RAMS Park in the UEFA Champions League. The Reds lost 2-1 away to Crystal Palace in the Premier League over the weekend, a setback that ended their perfect domestic start under Arne Slot. Yet in Europe, Liverpool carry a very different aura. Their recent Champions League record in the group stage has been close to impeccable, with thirteen wins from their last fourteen matches in this phase. The only defeat in that stretch came last season at PSV Eindhoven when qualification was already secure, and Slot’s predecessor rotated heavily.

Mohamed Salah remains the heartbeat of this team and will be chasing another milestone. He is just two goals shy of reaching fifty in the Champions League, a figure that would place him among the competition’s elite scorers. Salah has already proven time and again that he thrives under European lights, and Liverpool will lean on his cutting edge to rediscover momentum. Liverpool’s consistency in front of goal has been particularly impressive. The last time they failed to score in a Champions League group or league phase fixture was almost five years ago, against Atalanta in November 2020. Since then, they have scored fifty six goals in twenty three matches at this stage of the competition.

Galatasaray approach the game in very different spirits. Their 5-1 defeat at Eintracht Frankfurt on Matchday 1 exposed defensive fragility and extended their dismal record in the competition. They have only one win in their last eighteen Champions League matches, losing twelve of them. Their struggles at home are just as glaring, with eight successive matches at RAMS Park without a victory. Not since a 3-0 triumph against Lokomotiv Moscow in September 2018 have the Turkish giants celebrated a home win in Europe’s premier competition.

Yet Galatasaray’s history against English opponents provides some encouragement. In the last two seasons, they have beaten both Manchester United and Tottenham in the Europa League, showing that they can rise to the occasion against Premier League opposition. Liverpool themselves have not won in Istanbul against Galatasaray. The Reds drew 0-0 in 2002 and lost 3-2 in 2006, although that second meeting was a dead rubber for Rafa Benitez’s side. These memories add another layer of intrigue, as history suggests Liverpool rarely find the Turkish capital an easy place to play.

For Okan Buruk, the challenge lies in tightening a defence that was ripped apart in Frankfurt. The return to fitness of Victor Osimhen could prove decisive. The Nigerian striker, who came on for the final minutes against Alanyaspor in the league last Friday, remains a doubt to start, but his presence would give Galatasaray the kind of firepower needed to test Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konaté. Creativity is likely to come from Ilkay Gündogan, who impressed with four chances created against Eintracht in his Champions League debut for the club. Around him, experienced European names like Leroy Sané, Lucas Torreira and Davinson Sánchez add depth and familiarity, while Mauro Icardi provides a reliable goal threat.

For Liverpool, the selection picture is clearer. Hugo Ekitiké is back from suspension and should start ahead of Alexander Isak, who played the majority of the league match at Crystal Palace. Giovanni Leoni’s long-term knee injury rules him out, but Federico Chiesa has been drafted into the squad as cover and could feature. Florian Wirtz will also be under the spotlight. The German midfielder has yet to find rhythm in the Premier League, but his record in Europe remains strong. He created five chances against Atlético Madrid on Matchday 1 and has averaged over three chances per ninety minutes since the start of last season in this competition. That creativity, combined with Salah’s goal threat, provides Slot with a balance of invention and firepower.

The meeting will be the fifth between the two clubs. Each side has one win, and the other two fixtures ended in draws. Liverpool have never managed to win away from home in this pairing, making this a significant test of their European pedigree under Slot.

Our supercomputer rates Liverpool as favourites, with a fifty five point eight percent chance of victory. Galatasaray’s chances stand at twenty two point two percent, with the draw fractionally lower at twenty two percent. The numbers point towards Liverpool, yet the atmosphere in Istanbul and Galatasaray’s knack for unsettling English teams mean nothing is guaranteed.

Liverpool arrive wounded from their first domestic setback, but their Champions League form has been far more consistent. Galatasaray remain vulnerable and will need their key players fit and firing to resist a side that rarely falters in this competition. For Salah, the pursuit of a personal milestone could inspire another decisive performance. For Slot, the game represents an opportunity to steady the ship and underline Liverpool’s ambitions in Europe. For Galatasaray, it is a chance to show resilience and remind the continent that even in poor form, they can make Istanbul a difficult destination for any opponent.