Premier League Matchday Analysis and Predictions

The Premier League is back for Matchday 8 of the 2025/26 season, and as always, we are on hand to deliver our data-driven forecasts for every game.

After accurately predicting many results last season, the model once again provides detailed insights into this weekend’s fixtures, team chances, and standout stats.

Setting the Scene

Arsenal currently top the table after a solid 2–0 victory over West Ham, while Liverpool’s late defeat to Chelsea has seen them slip down the standings. Tottenham Hotspur and Bournemouth are keeping the pressure on, both sitting just one point behind the reigning champions.

This round of fixtures will unfold over a busy weekend, with matches spread across Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.

Saturday 18 October

Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea
The action begins at the City Ground where struggling Nottingham Forest face Chelsea. Ange Postecoglou is desperate for a win, while Chelsea are in high spirits after their last-minute victory over Liverpool.

According to the Opta supercomputer, Chelsea are strong favorites to win, coming out victorious in 48.1 percent of 10,000 simulations. Forest have only managed to win 27.8 percent of those simulated games.

The stats are not in Postecoglou’s favor. Forest have just one win from their last eight league encounters with Chelsea, drawing three and losing four. They have also lost five of their last seven home games in the Premier League, winning only once in that stretch.

Chelsea’s games have produced more goals than any other team’s this season, with 22 goals in total, 13 scored and nine conceded. They have also won three of their last four away matches against Forest, though they have only managed three wins in their last 14 league games on the road.

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United
Both Brighton and Newcastle are level on nine points as they meet at the Amex. Brighton have never lost at home to Newcastle in the Premier League, recording three wins and five draws, and overall have only lost twice in 16 meetings.

Newcastle have been defensively tight away from home this season, with all three of their road games ending 0–0. Brighton, however, are very strong at the Amex, losing only once in their last 11 home matches.

The model predicts a draw with a 26.5 percent probability. Brighton are given a 38 percent chance of winning, while Newcastle’s win probability stands at 35.5 percent. Brighton’s resilience is also reflected in the fact that under Fabian Hürzeler, they have gained 30 points from losing positions in the top flight.

Burnley vs Leeds United
This game features two of the newly promoted sides, both desperate for points. Matches between promoted teams this season have tended to favor the home side, with the hosts winning the last three such fixtures.

Burnley are slightly favored with a 41 percent win probability, while Leeds have 32.3 percent. The chance of a draw is the highest of any game this weekend at 26.7 percent.

Leeds have a good recent record against Burnley, losing just one of their last six league meetings, but they failed to score in both Championship games between them last season.

Crystal Palace vs Bournemouth
Crystal Palace saw their 19-game unbeaten run in all competitions ended by Everton but remain strong at home. They are unbeaten in their last nine Premier League home matches, winning five and drawing four, and are given a 53.7 percent chance of victory this weekend.

Bournemouth, though impressive this season, with four wins and two draws in their last six games, have struggled on the road. They have only two wins from their last nine away matches, though both came in London.

Antoine Semenyo has been their star man, involved in 14 of Bournemouth’s last 18 league goals, scoring 10 and assisting four. Still, Palace are expected to come out on top, with Bournemouth given just a 22.5 percent chance of winning.

Manchester City vs Everton
David Moyes has turned Everton into a resilient side this season, but facing Manchester City at the Etihad remains a huge test.

Everton have only a 15.6 percent chance of winning and an 18.5 percent chance of drawing. City are overwhelming favorites at 65.9 percent, unbeaten in their last 16 league games against Everton, winning 13 and drawing three since January 2017.

City have won their last two home matches by three-goal margins, while Moyes has lost his last eight visits to the Etihad

Sunderland vs Wolves
Sunderland host bottom-placed Wolves at the Stadium of Light. Sunderland have had a strong start, collecting seven points from three home matches, while Wolves remain winless.

The Opta model predicts a Sunderland win at 40.4 percent, with Wolves at 33 percent. The hosts have the historical edge too, winning seven and drawing three of their last 10 home league games against Wolves.

Fans should not expect a high-scoring affair. Wolves have managed only 66 shots this season, averaging 9.4 per game, while Sunderland are slightly better with 10 per game.

Fulham vs Arsenal
Saturday concludes with a London derby at Craven Cottage as Arsenal look to hold on to top spot. The Gunners are unbeaten in seven matches across all competitions but have not won away at Fulham in their last two visits.

The Opta model still heavily favors Arsenal with a 56.7 percent chance of victory. Fulham have won their last two home matches but have just a 21.5 percent probability of extending that streak. A draw is only slightly more likely at 21.8 percent.

Arsenal’s biggest weapon is their goal spread. No team has had more different scorers this season, with nine players finding the net. Iy

Sunday 19 October

Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa
Sunday opens with Tottenham hosting a red-hot Aston Villa side on a four-game winning streak. This fixture is tight, with Spurs given a 38.4 percent chance to win and Villa 35.1 percent.

None of the last 20 Premier League meetings between these two have ended in a draw, with Spurs winning 14 and Villa six since May 2012. The Villans have won four of their last six against Spurs, while Unai Emery has never lost to Thomas Frank’s side, winning three and drawing two of their past meetings.

Liverpool vs Manchester United
The headline fixture of the weekend sees Liverpool take on Manchester United at Anfield. Arne Slot’s side need a response after consecutive losses to Crystal Palace and Chelsea.

Liverpool are the Opta supercomputer’s most confident pick of the weekend with a massive 73.3 percent chance of victory. United have just an 11.2 percent chance to win and a 15.5 percent chance to draw.

Liverpool have lost only once in their last 14 league meetings with United and are unbeaten in their last nine home encounters with them since January 2016. Manchester United are winless in eight away league games, losing six of those.

If United are to stand any chance, they’ll need to stop Mohamed Salah, who has scored 13 goals and contributed 19 goal involvements against them, the highest of any player in Premier League history.

Monday 20 October

West Ham United vs Brentford
The round wraps up with another London derby as West Ham host Brentford. Both teams are in poor form, and the data suggests another close contest.

Brentford are given a slight edge with a 37.8 percent chance of victory, compared to West Ham’s 36 percent. The draw probability stands at 26.2 percent.

West Ham have lost their first three home games of the season for only the second time ever and have never lost four in a row to start a campaign. They have also managed just one win in eight Premier League meetings with Brentford.

Brentford, however, have lost their last three away matches, so a draw at the London Stadium seems the most realistic outcome.