Chelsea welcome Ajax to Stamford Bridge on Wednesday night as they continue their push up the UEFA Champions League standings. After a shaky start to the season, Enzo Maresca’s men have hit form, winning three straight matches across all competitions. Now, the Club World Cup champions look to keep the momentum going against a struggling Ajax side.
Oursupercomputer makes Chelsea clear favorites for this one, giving them a 71.2 percent chance of victory compared to Ajax’s 12.6 percent. The Dutch giants have lost their last five games in major European competitions, a streak they last endured back in 1989.
A few weeks ago, Maresca was under pressure after Chelsea’s 1-3 loss to Brighton. But since then, the London club have responded impressively. Wins over Benfica, Liverpool, and Nottingham Forest have lifted spirits and restored belief. Saturday’s 3-0 victory over Forest was another step forward, with goals from Josh Acheampong, Pedro Neto, and Reece James sealing the points. Nineteen-year-old Acheampong became the second teenager to score for Chelsea in the Premier League this season, following Estêvão’s strike against Liverpool.
Youth has been the driving force of Maresca’s project. Chelsea are the only team in the competition yet to field a player aged 30 or older. Only Liverpool in 2002-03 and Tottenham in 2016-17 have gone three or more European games without using a player in their 30s.
Chelsea’s Champions League campaign began with a 1-3 defeat at Bayern Munich, but a narrow win over Benfica steadied the ship. They have now lost just two of their last 12 Champions League games at Stamford Bridge, both against Real Madrid in the quarterfinals. The Blues are unbeaten in their last 12 home group or league-stage matches, winning eight and drawing four since losing to Valencia in 2019.
Maresca could welcome Enzo Fernández back after he missed the win over Forest. Moisés Caicedo has been one of Chelsea’s key men in Europe this season, making nine tackles-only two players in the competition have made more. Cole Palmer remains sidelined, while João Pedro is suspended after his red card against Benfica. Ironically, one of João Pedro’s six career goals in major European competitions came against Ajax when he played for Brighton in 2023.
Ajax’s problems are far deeper. They sit near the bottom of both their Champions League group and the Eredivisie table. After heavy defeats to Inter (0-2) and Marseille (0-4), John Heitinga’s side desperately need a result. A 0-2 loss to AZ Alkmaar on Saturday has only increased the pressure.
Heitinga could make unwanted history if Ajax lose again. He would become the first person to lose his first three Champions League matches with the same club as both a player and a manager. Still, Ajax’s tradition of promoting youth continued as 17-year-old Jorthy Mokio made his Champions League debut against Marseille, becoming the second-youngest Ajax player ever in the competition.
Chelsea and Ajax have met twice before, both in the 2019-20 Champions League group stage. Chelsea won 1-0 in Amsterdam before a dramatic 4-4 draw in London, where the Blues came from 1-4 down after Ajax had two players sent off. Ajax have not beaten an English team since their 1-0 win over Tottenham in April 2019 and have failed to score in their last five matches against Premier League opposition.
Chelsea have a strong record against sides on long losing streaks. This will be the seventh time they face a team who have lost five straight European games, and they’ve won all previous six by a combined score of 14-0.
Opta gives Chelsea a 71.2 percent chance of victory, with Ajax winning just 12.6 percent of the simulations and 16.2 percent ending in draws. Chelsea also remain eighth favorites to win the Champions League, with a 5 percent shot at lifting the trophy and a 79 percent chance of reaching the last 16. Ajax’s odds are far worse, with only a 2.7 percent chance of making the knockout rounds.
Prediction: Chelsea 3-0 Ajax
Player to Watch: Pedro Neto
Predicted Lineups:
Chelsea: Robert Sánchez, Malo Gusto, Trevoh Chalobah, Jorrel Hato, Marc Cucurella, Roméo Lavia, Moisés Caicedo, Pedro Neto, Facundo Buonanotte, Alejandro Garnacho, Tyrique George.
Manager: Enzo Maresca
Ajax: Vítezslav Jaros, Lucas Rosa, Ko Itakura, Youri Baas, Jorthy Mokio, Davy Klaassen, Youri Regeer, Kenneth Taylor, Oliver Edvardsen, Mika Godts, Oscar Gloukh.
Manager: John Heitinga
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