Analysis: Burnley vs Chelsea

Chelsea return to Premier League action at Turf Moor on Saturday with a remarkable record behind them. Turf Moor has been one of the friendliest away venues for the Blues, and the coming weekend offers another chance to reinforce that trend. With momentum building before the international break, Enzo Maresca’s side will look to maintain their form against a Burnley side in need of stability.

Key Numbers Ahead of the Match

Chelsea collected all three points in fifty seven percent of ten thousand Opta simulations.
Burnley won in just over twenty one percent of these projections.
Chelsea have claimed victory in their last seven Premier League matches that began at twelve thirty on a Saturday.
Burnley have recorded the lowest shot total, the lowest expected goals figure, the lowest average possession, the highest number of shots conceded and the highest expected goals against in the league this season.

Chelsea enter the weekend with confidence after consecutive wins over Tottenham and Wolves. Those victories lifted them to third place in the Premier League table. They sit two points behind Manchester City and remain within striking distance of leaders Arsenal.

João Pedro was central to both wins. He scored the winner against Spurs and added another goal in the three goal victory over Wolves. After a seven match scoring drought in the league he now has the chance to find the net in a third straight Premier League appearance for only the second time in his career. His last streak of three came in early 2025 for Brighton. He has yet to score in four previous Premier League matches against Burnley, however.

Alejandro Garnacho could also mark a milestone this weekend. If he features he would reach one hundred Premier League appearances at only twenty one years and one hundred forty four days old, which would make him the youngest South American player to do so. Gabriel Martinelli currently holds that record.

Chelsea’s recent away form is encouraging. They have recorded clean sheet victories at both Tottenham and Nottingham Forest. They have not produced three consecutive away wins with clean sheets in the Premier League since the final months of 2021, although the early kick off slot appears to suit them. They have won all seven of their most recent Saturday twelve thirty starts. Only three teams in league history have produced longer runs at that exact time.

Burnley, meanwhile, have struggled. They have lost four of their last six league matches. Their most recent outing was a three to two loss at West Ham which leaves them seventeenth, ahead of the Hammers only on goal difference. They sit just one point above Nottingham Forest. Even so, Zian Flemming is providing a source of hope with three goals in four league starts. Only Maxwel Cornet has begun his Burnley Premier League career with four or more goals in his first five starts.

The deeper statistics are less forgiving. Burnley have posted the lowest shot total at ninety, the lowest expected goals at eight point three, the lowest possession at thirty eight point six percent, the highest shot total conceded at one hundred ninety two and the highest expected goals against at twenty four. Across the period for which Opta hold detailed data, no Premier League team has ever ranked bottom in all these categories at once until now. Burnley have kept only two clean sheets in their last thirty one league matches and have conceded sixty four goals during this spell.

Scott Parker has no new injury concerns. Jordan Beyer, Connor Roberts and Zeki Amdouni remain long term absentees. Chelsea are less fortunate. Maresca hopes Pedro Neto and Enzo Fernández can recover quickly enough to feature at Turf Moor. Cole Palmer is expected back early next month and both Levi Colwill and Roméo Lavia will be unavailable for some time.

Head to Head

Burnley have managed only one win in eighteen Premier League meetings with Chelsea. Chelsea have claimed victory in twelve of those encounters. The Blues have also won eight of their last nine league matches away at Burnley, including the previous six. They have scored at least three goals in each of their last five visits. Only two pairings in English top flight history have seen a team win six straight away matches against one opponent while scoring three goals or more in each match. Chelsea achieved it against Arsenal in the nineteen sixties and Manchester City repeated it against West Brom between twenty thirteen and twenty twenty one.

Prediction

The Opta supercomputer heavily favoured Chelsea. The away side won fifty seven percent of simulations. The draw appeared in twenty one point seven percent and Burnley triumphed in twenty one point three percent.

Predicted Lineups

Burnley: Martin Dúbravka, Kyle Walker, Axel Tuanzebe, Maxime Estève, Quilindschy Hartman, Josh Cullen, Florentino, Loum Tchaouna, Lesley Ugochukwu, Jaidon Anthony, Zian Flemming
Head coach: Scott Parker

Chelsea: Robert Sánchez, Reece James, Wesley Fofana, Trevoh Chalobah, Marc Cucurella, Andrey Santos, Moisés Caicedo, Estêvão, João Pedro, Alejandro Garnacho, Liam Delap
Head coach: Enzo Maresca

Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings evaluate more than fifteen thousand teams across world football on a scale of zero to one hundred. Chelsea and Burnley both enter this fixture with updated scores that reflect their recent performances, with Chelsea naturally sitting much higher following a stronger start to the season.