Analysis: Chelsea vs Barcelona

A major Champions League fixture returns to Stamford Bridge on Tuesday night as Chelsea take on Barcelona in a meeting filled with history, unforgettable incidents, and high stakes. Both teams enter Matchday Five knowing that a positive result will be crucial in their push for the top eight positions in the group standings.

Key Stats Before Kickoff

Chelsea are slight favourites. Our supercomputer gives them a winning chance of 41.7 percent.
Barcelona have won only one of their last nine Champions League games against Chelsea.
Marcus Rashford has produced five goal contributions in four Champions League matches for Barcelona.

This game stands out as the biggest showdown of the week. It is the only Matchday Five fixture that brings together two clubs that were in Pot One when the draw was made. Both teams are two points outside the top eight. Since they have each already faced the Pot One club in their group earlier in the campaign, this match is statistically the toughest remaining fixture for both.

Chelsea lost their previous Champions League match by three goals to one against Bayern Munich. Barcelona suffered a two one home defeat to Paris Saint Germain. Despite that setback, Barcelona may actually welcome the idea of playing away because their recent record in England is strong.

Barcelona have been beaten only twice in their previous nine Champions League matches played on English soil. They have won six of those nine. The only defeats came at Manchester City in November 2016 by three goals to one and at Liverpool in May 2019 where they lost by four goals to nil.

Chelsea will hope the recent dominance of Premier League clubs against La Liga opposition continues. English teams have won nine of their last ten Champions League encounters with Spanish sides. The only Spanish victory was Barcelona’s two one win at Newcastle United in September. Since that match, English teams have won four games in a row without conceding. Those results were Arsenal four nil Atletico Madrid, Villarreal zero two Manchester City, Liverpool one nil Real Madrid, and Newcastle two nil Athletic Club.

Barcelona’s win at St James Park was driven mainly by Marcus Rashford who scored twice. He has four goals and one assist in four Champions League appearances for the club. Only Hristo Stoichkov has recorded more than five goal involvements in his first five Champions League matches for Barcelona. Stoichkov delivered five goals and three assists in the year 1994. It is a very specific statistic but it highlights the level Rashford has reached considering the calibre of players who have represented Barcelona.

Rashford missed Barcelona’s four nil victory against Athletic Club at their renovated Camp Nou on Saturday due to illness. He may return for this fixture. Frenkie de Jong also missed that game due to a suspension which does not apply in the Champions League. Alejandro Balde left the match at half time and may not be available. Gavi, Pedri, and Marc Andre ter Stegen remain out of contention.

Barcelona have scored in every one of their last twenty four Champions League matches. They have produced a total of sixty seven goals during this run which is the longest active scoring streak in the competition. Manager Hansi Flick also has an impressive personal record. No opponent has ever kept a clean sheet against one of his teams in this competition. That streak covers thirty six matches, eighteen with Barcelona and eighteen with Bayern Munich.

Their consistent scoring form will test a Chelsea squad with several injury problems. Cole Palmer is the most significant absence. Levi Colwill, Dario Essugo, and Romeo Lavia are also unavailable.

Enzo Maresca can at least rely on Estevao. The teenager is Chelsea’s top scorer in the Champions League this season. He has found the net in both of his first two starts. If he scores again in this match he will become the second youngest player to score in each of his first three Champions League starts. His age on matchday will be eighteen years and two hundred and fifteen days. Only Kylian Mbappe has achieved that feat at a younger age. Mbappe did so at eighteen years and one hundred and thirteen days during his time at Monaco in 2017.

Estevao has also recorded strong expected goals numbers in this Champions League campaign.
Chelsea have the youngest average starting team in the Champions League this season. Their average age is twenty three years and two hundred and seventy eight days. The club have also given starts to fourteen different players aged twenty three or younger which is the highest number for any team.

Barcelona’s experience may prove important. They have received twelve yellow cards in the tournament which is the most so far. This is despite making only thirty seven fouls which is the fifth lowest total among all teams. Eight different Barcelona players have been shown a yellow card. This suggests that the team is willing to take a booking to prevent a dangerous attacking situation. Chelsea’s young squad may find this level of tactical discipline difficult to break down.

Head to Head Record

Chelsea have dominated the recent meetings, particularly when Barcelona play in London. The Blues have lost just one of their last nine Champions League matches against Barcelona. Six of those nine games ended in draws. The single defeat came in their most recent meeting in 2018 when Barcelona won by three goals to nil at Camp Nou. That result eliminated Chelsea with an aggregate score of four goals to one.

Barcelona have won only one of their eight European visits to Stamford Bridge. They have lost five of those eight matches. The only victory was a two one win in February 2006 which was secured through a John Terry own goal and a strike from Samuel Eto o.

Prediction

The Opta supercomputer gives Chelsea a narrow advantage. Chelsea emerged as winners in 41.7 percent of ten thousand match simulations. Barcelona won in 34.5 percent. The probability of a draw is 23.8 percent.

Chelsea have history on their side and they also have the backing of the numbers. The question now is whether they can convert those advantages into three points on Tuesday night.

Expected Lineups

Chelsea
Robert Sanchez
Reece James
Tosin Adarabioyo
Jorrel Hato
Marc Cucurella
Andrey Santos
Moises Caicedo
Estevao
Jamie Gittens
Joao Pedro
Pedro Neto
Head coach Enzo Maresca

Barcelona
Wojciech Szczesny
Jules Kounde
Ronald Araujo
Eric Garcia
Alejandro Balde
Frenkie de Jong
Marc Casado
Fermin Lopez
Lamine Yamal
Raphinha
Ferran Torres
Head coach Hansi Flick and