Analysis: Arsenal Vs Bayern Munich

Arsenal vs Bayern Munich Prediction: Europe’s Sharpest Defence Meets Europe’s Most Ruthless Attack

Arsenal welcome Bayern Munich to the Emirates Stadium in a blockbuster UEFA Champions League fixture. The match brings together the tightest defence in Europe and the most productive attack in this year’s competition.

Arsenal vs Bayern Munich Key Numbers

The GALAXY COMPUTER gives Arsenal a victory probability of 44.9 percent, making the Gunners slight favourites. Bayern Munich have a 29.9 percent chance of winning, while 25.1 percent of the simulations end in a draw.

Arsenal are the only team in the Champions League that have not conceded a single goal this season. Bayern have struck 14 goals, which is the joint highest tally after four matchdays.

Harry Kane has scored 15 goals in 21 matches against Arsenal. Six of those goals were scored in ten appearances at the Emirates Stadium which is the highest total by any visiting player in the history of the ground.

Two Teams at the Top of Europe

According to Opta Power Rankings, Arsenal and Bayern Munich are currently the two strongest club sides in world football. Both teams have collected 12 points from their opening four matches and both have a goal difference of plus eleven.

This Matchday Five showdown represents a classic meeting between a defensive wall and an attacking storm.

Arsenal: Defence on Lock

Arsenal’s numbers are extraordinary.
They rank first in the Champions League for expected goals against with 1.94 xGA. They have faced only seven shots on target in four matches.
When all competitions are considered, Arsenal have conceded only six goals which is the lowest total across Europes top five leagues. They also have the fewest expected goals against in all competitions with a figure of 9.9 xGA.

Arsenal arrive in great form after defeating Tottenham on Sunday. Eberechi Eze scored the first north London derby hat trick of the Premier League era. Mikel Arteta’s team are unbeaten in 15 games since their defeat to Liverpool in August. They have won 13 and drawn two in that period.

In the Champions League league or group phase, Arsenal have achieved their longest ever winning run with eight straight victories and a combined score of twenty four goals for and two goals against.

Team news:
Gabriel Magalhaes is still out with a thigh issue. Viktor Gyokeres and Martin Odegaard may return after missing the derby. Gabriel Martinelli was fit enough to sit on the bench and could feature.

Bayern Munich: Goals From Everywhere

Bayern sit joint first for goals in the Champions League with fourteen. Their expected goals figure of twelve point three xG is the highest in the competition after four matchdays.

In all competitions, Bayern have scored sixty four goals and generated fifty two point five expected goals which places them far ahead of every other club in Europe.

Bayern’s consistency in European group or league play is remarkable. Since their three nil defeat to Paris Saint Germain in September twenty seventeen, they have lost only three of their fifty two matches at this stage of the competition. All three defeats occurred away from home.

The German champions have been relentless this season with seventeen wins from eighteen matches. Only a two two draw with Union Berlin prevented a perfect start. Their six two win over Freiburg at the weekend extended their streak of leading the Bundesliga standings to forty three consecutive matchdays, matching the clubs record from nineteen seventy two to nineteen seventy three.

Michael Olise delivered the standout performance in that match by scoring twice and registering three assists. He became the first player in the top five leagues of Europe to record five goal involvements in a single match this season. Lennart Karl, Dayot Upamecano, Nicolas Jackson and Harry Kane also found the net.

Kane’s record against Arsenal remains lethal. He has scored fifteen goals in twenty one appearances. He has six goals in ten games at the Emirates Stadium which is the most ever by an away player.

Bayern have also struck the woodwork seven times. This is the highest total in the competition and matches the Champions League record for the first four group matches of a season which was previously set by Barcelona in twenty ten to twenty eleven and Real Madrid in twenty eighteen to twenty nineteen.

Arsenal vs Bayern Munich Head to Head

Arsenal have suffered heavily against Bayern in previous seasons. The Gunners endured three straight five one defeats across the two legs of the twenty fifteen to twenty sixteen and twenty sixteen to twenty seventeen meetings.

Bayern also knocked Arsenal out of the Champions League in the twenty twenty three to twenty twenty four quarter final. Joshua Kimmich scored the decisive goal in the second leg as Bayern advanced three two on aggregate.

This will be the fifteenth Champions League meeting between both teams. Arsenal have faced Bayern more than any other opponent in the competition. Arsenal have not won any of the last five meetings with Bayern. They have drawn one and lost four since their two nil victory in October twenty fifteen which remains their only win in four league or group stage meetings.

Prediction

The GALAXY COMPUTER favours Arsenal to win with a forty four point nine percent chance. Bayern follow with twenty nine point nine percent, while a draw stands at twenty five point one percent.

For the overall tournament, the GALAXY COMPUTER gives Arsenal a twenty three percent chance of winning the Champions League. Bayern are second with sixteen percent.

In the league phase table projections, Arsenal have a forty two point five percent chance of finishing first. Bayern are close behind with thirty three point seven percent. A Bayern win in London would make a significant difference in those projections.

Probable Lineups

Arsenal
Raya
Timber
Saliba
Hincapie
Calafiori
Zubimendi
Norgaard
Rice
Saka
Trossard
Merino
Coach Mikel Arteta

Bayern Munich
Urbig
Laimer
Tah
Upamecano
Stanisic
Kimmich
Goretzka
Karl
Kane
Olise
Jackson
Coach Vincent Kompany