Tottenham Hotspur head to the Parc des Princes on Wednesday for a daunting UEFA Champions League encounter against holders Paris Saint Germain. The match comes at a difficult moment for Thomas Frank’s team.
PSG vs Tottenham: What the Numbers Say
The Opta supercomputer strongly favours the French champions, handing them a 62.9 percent probability of victory, while Spurs have been assigned just 17.3 percent.
PSG enter Matchday 5 as joint top scorers in the competition with 14 goals, level with Bayern Munich.
This meeting is only the second ever between the clubs in major European competition following the dramatic UEFA Super Cup in August where PSG overturned a two goal deficit before winning on penalties.
Tottenham Arrive in Paris With Bruised Confidence
Spurs travel to France still reeling from a humbling 4–1 defeat to Arsenal in the north London derby. It was their heaviest defeat under Frank. Eberechi Eze, who had been linked with a summer move to Spurs, produced a memorable hat trick and dominated the afternoon.
The derby collapse added to an inconsistent run that began in October. After exiting the EFL Cup to Newcastle, Spurs drew with Manchester United, slipped against Chelsea and then struggled again at the Emirates.
Their Champions League form tells a different story. Spurs cruised to a 4–0 victory over FC Copenhagen in their last European outing. Even so, a visit to the defending European champions on their home ground is one of the toughest assignments possible at this stage of the season.
A Tale of Two Defences
Tottenham’s recent Premier League troubles have largely come from conceding first too often. They allowed the opening goal in only three of their first nine league matches, but have now done so in three straight games.
Europe has brought out a more disciplined version of the team. Across the Champions League and Europa League in 2025, Spurs have recorded seven clean sheets in 13 matches. No European side has managed more this calendar year. Their defensive performance against Copenhagen was impressive, allowing only 0.35 expected goals. It was their best defensive xG figure in the tournament since restricting Borussia Dortmund to 0.10 xG in 2019.
PSG’s Injury Concerns Create Tactical Questions
Despite their strong statistical backing, PSG have not fully rediscovered the fluency of last year’s treble winning campaign. A series of injuries has forced Luis Enrique to improvise often.
Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembélé has played only sparingly, Desiré Doué remains sidelined with a hamstring injury and Matchday 4 brought another setback when Achraf Hakimi injured his ankle against Bayern Munich. The Moroccan defender is unlikely to feature again before the Africa Cup of Nations.
In Saturday’s victory over Le Havre, Enrique used Warren Zaïre Emery at right back, which shows how frequently he has turned to young players. Since the beginning of last season, 13 of PSG’s 52 Champions League goals have been scored by players aged 21 or younger. That is 25 percent of their total.
With Dembélé and Doué missing, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia may carry a heavier creative load. The Georgian produced an instant impact at the weekend by setting up Bradley Barcola for PSG’s third goal in a 3–0 win.
PSG have now won six of their last seven league phase matches in the Champions League, scoring an average of 3.6 goals per match. Both teams remain unbeaten in the competition this season, but Spurs are the only team among the unbeaten group not to have won all four matches.
Head to Head History
Their only previous meeting in major European competition came in the UEFA Super Cup in August. PSG recovered from two goals down to level the match late on before winning on penalties.
PSG have lost only one of their last six Champions League home matches against English sides. Spurs have been beaten just twice in their last 13 matches against French opposition. Their most recent away game in France ended in a goalless draw with Monaco.
Match Prediction
The Opta supercomputer remains decisive.
PSG win: 64.2 percent
Tottenham win: 16.5 percent
Draw: 19.3 percent
A Tottenham upset is possible, but almost every indicator including form, squad depth and momentum points toward a PSG victory.
Projected Lineups
Paris Saint Germain
Lucas Chevalier, Warren Zaïre Emery, Willian Pacho, Marquinhos, Nuno Mendes, João Neves, Vitinha, Fabián Ruiz, Bradley Barcola, Gonçalo Ramos, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Head coach: Luis Enrique
Tottenham Hotspur
Guglielmo Vicario, Pedro Porro, Cristian Romero, Micky van de Ven, Destiny Udogie, João Palhinha, Rodrigo Bentancur, Mohammed Kudus, Richarlison, Xavi Simons
Head coach: Thomas Frank
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