Liverpool return to Champions League duty on Wednesday hoping that European competition can provide the spark they have struggled to find in the Premier League. Despite their domestic struggles, the Opta supercomputer still views them as strong favourites when PSV Eindhoven visit Anfield.
Liverpool vs PSV: Key Numbers To Know
The Opta model gives Liverpool a 68.4 percent chance of victory, while PSV have just 14.5 percent. Arne Slot has suffered more defeats against PSV than against any other opponent in his managerial career. Liverpool have also won their last thirteen Champions League home matches in the league phase.
Liverpool Look to Europe for Stability
Liverpool’s 3–0 loss to Nottingham Forest at Anfield on Saturday continued their alarming Premier League slide. They have now been defeated in six of their last seven league matches. In contrast, their Champions League campaign has been far more encouraging. A narrow win over Real Madrid earlier this month gave them three victories from four Group Stage matches, with only a tight loss to Galatasaray preventing a perfect start.
Arne Slot remains under pressure and his historical record against PSV does little to lift the mood. He has beaten PSV only once in his last eight meetings with them across all competitions, and Liverpool also lost to the Dutch champions in last season’s league phase after rotating heavily.
Home Form Offers Confidence
Liverpool’s European form at Anfield is far more reassuring. They have won thirteen straight home matches in the Champions League Group Stage, the longest such run by any Premier League club. The Reds have lost only once in their last twenty five home Group Stage games in the competition, a 2–0 defeat to Atalanta in 2020.
Creatively, Liverpool have been dominant in Europe. Florian Wirtz, Cody Gakpo and Dominik Szoboszlai are the only players in the tournament to have created five or more big chances across the opening matchdays. Liverpool have also been one of the most direct attacking teams, with only Club Brugge producing more direct attacks, while the Reds have conceded only three such moves from opponents.
PSV’s Matches Promise Goals
PSV arrive with a reputation for chaotic, high scoring matches. Both teams have scored in each of their last ten Champions League games, producing a combined total of forty five goals. Late drama has defined their campaign, with more goals scored after the eighty sixth minute than any other team. Their stoppage time equaliser away to Olympiakos on the previous matchday was their latest ever away result changing goal in the Champions League.
Ricardo Pepi has been in outstanding form, contributing to five goals in his last four Champions League outings. He scored and assisted against Liverpool in January and now has goals in two consecutive matches. Another goal would place him among a select group of PSV players who have scored in three straight appearances.
Team News
Liverpool remain short at right back with Jeremie Frimpong and Conor Bradley unavailable. Florian Wirtz may return after missing the Nottingham Forest loss with a minor issue. PSV are still without long term absentees Alassane Plea and Ruben van Bommel.
Head to Head Record
Liverpool won five of their first six meetings with PSV in European competition. PSV did defeat Liverpool 3–2 in last season’s league phase, which was Liverpool’s only loss in the opening stage of the tournament. PSV’s away record in England is poor, with only one win in fourteen visits. That victory came against Tottenham in the 2007–08 UEFA Cup.
Match Prediction
Liverpool remain heavy favourites based on the Opta supercomputer. Liverpool win: 68.4 percent. PSV win: 14.5 percent. Draw: 17.1 percent. The statistical advantage is clear, although Liverpool’s defeat to Nottingham Forest showed that probabilities do not always dictate outcomes.
Predicted Lineups
Liverpool: Alisson, Dominik Szoboszlai, Ibrahima Konaté, Virgil van Dijk, Milos Kerkez, Ryan Gravenberch, Alexis Mac Allister, Curtis Jones, Mohamed Salah, Cody Gakpo, Hugo Ekitike.
Head coach: Arne Slot
PSV Eindhoven: Matej Kovar, Sergino Dest, Jerdy Schouten, Yarek Gasiorowski, Anass Salah Eddine, Mauro Junior, Joey Veerman, Ismael Saibari, Dennis Man, Ivan Perisic, Guus Til.
Head coach: Peter Bosz
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