Analysis: Crystal Palace vs Manchester United

Crystal Palace welcome Manchester United to Selhurst Park on Sunday in a Premier League fixture that arrives at a difficult moment for Ruben Amorim, whose team saw their momentum halted at Old Trafford earlier in the week. The challenge will not get any easier. Palace have built one of the most formidable home records in the division, making this trip one of United’s sternest tests of the campaign.

Key Numbers from the Opta Supercomputer

Crystal Palace enter the match as the favourites, winning 54.1 percent of the Opta model’s ten thousand simulations. Manchester United are assigned a 22.3 percent chance of victory, while a draw is predicted in 23.6 percent of simulations. Palace’s status as favourites is supported by their recent record at home and by United’s long-term struggles against London opposition.

United Must Recover After Everton Setback

United’s five-game unbeaten run came to an end on Monday, as Everton defeated them 1-0 at Old Trafford despite going down to ten men. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall’s brilliant first-half strike proved decisive, and United could not convert any of their 25 efforts at goal. Only six of those attempts were on target, and Jordan Pickford was rarely stretched. Remarkably, Everton scored with the only shot on target they produced.

Amorim’s team remain one of the most statistically busy sides in the Premier League. Their league matches have generated a combined expected goals total of 37.1, the highest in the competition, with 20.1 xG for and 17 xG against. Yet despite generating over twenty expected goals, United have scored only nineteen times, and two of those goals were own goals by opponents.

Only Liverpool have taken more shots than United’s 183 this season. Of those attempts, 62 have been on target, but Chelsea are the only team who have hit the target more frequently. Chelsea also have four more goals than United, underlining the finishing issues Amorim faces. United’s conversion rate stands at 10.4 percent, one of the lowest in the league.

Palace’s Defensive Strength Makes Selhurst Park a Fortress

Crystal Palace have conceded only nine league goals so far, a total bettered only by Arsenal. It is their lowest tally after twelve league matches since the 1981–82 season, when they also conceded nine. Across those twelve games they have faced 128 shots, 36 of which required saves, and the expected goals against figure sits at 14.5. They have kept six clean sheets, the second-highest total in the league.

Selhurst Park has become one of the most difficult away grounds in England. Palace have not lost any of their last twelve home matches in the Premier League, winning six and drawing six. They have only enjoyed one longer unbeaten top-flight home streak, a run of seventeen games between February and December 1990.

This presents a significant problem for United. They have won only one of their last eleven league away matches, a 2-1 victory over Liverpool. Only four away wins have come during Amorim’s tenure in the league, and half of them were recorded at the home grounds of Premier League champions, including a 2-1 triumph over Manchester City last December.

United’s struggles in the capital have been even more stark. They have beaten London sides only three times in their last twenty-six away Premier League matches. All three of those wins were at Fulham. In that period, no team has lost as many away matches in London as Manchester United.

There have been encouraging signs in their last two away fixtures. United scored first, fell behind, yet still managed to recover and secure 2-2 draws against Tottenham and Nottingham Forest. Amorim will hope that resilience translates into a more complete performance.

Palace, however, will approach the match with confidence. Oliver Glasner’s side saw a five-match unbeaten run in all competitions ended by Strasbourg in the Conference League, but their domestic form remains strong.

Crystal Palace vs Manchester United Head-to-Head

Recent Premier League meetings have tilted toward Palace. They have won three of the last four league encounters with United, drawing the other. Before this period, Palace had beaten United only three times in thirty attempts.

At Selhurst Park, the story has also shifted. After failing to win any of thirteen home league matches against United between 1991 and 2021, Palace have since collected two victories and two draws in their last four home games against the Red Devils.

United’s attacking struggles in this fixture are notable. They have not scored in any of their last four league games against Palace. Only twice in their entire league history have they gone five consecutive matches without scoring against the same opponent, doing so against Blackburn Rovers a century ago and Everton in the early 1970s.

Predicted Lineups

Crystal Palace: Dean Henderson, Marc Guéhi, Maxence Lacroix, Chris Richards, Tyrick Mitchell, Daichi Kamada, Adam Wharton, Daniel Muñoz, Yeremy Pino, Ismaïla Sarr, Jean-Philippe Mateta.
Manager: Oliver Glasner.

Manchester United: Senne Lammens, Matthijs de Ligt, Leny Yoro, Luke Shaw, Noussair Mazraoui, Casemiro, Bruno Fernandes, Patrick Dorgu, Mason Mount, Amad Diallo, Bryan Mbeumo.
Manager: Ruben Amorim.

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings evaluate more than fifteen thousand domestic teams worldwide. Each club is assigned a rating between zero and one hundred, with one hundred representing the best team on the planet. Both Palace and United enter this match with rankings that offer additional insight into their current standing and form heading into the weekend.

So,

With an exceptional home record, one of the league’s tightest defences, and a strong recent record against Manchester United, Crystal Palace have every reason to feel confident. The Opta supercomputer reinforces that belief, placing them as clear favourites. United must rediscover composure in front of goal and produce a performance worthy of breaking Selhurst Park’s formidable streak if they hope to take anything from this match.