Chelsea’s 1–1 draw with Arsenal on Sunday revived a growing concern that has followed the club throughout the season. The London side continue to show progress under Enzo Maresca, yet their persistent disciplinary issues threaten to undermine everything they are attempting to build.

Only a few weeks ago, a point against the league leaders would have been considered a positive result. However, Chelsea entered Matchday thirteen in second place and in excellent form, having pushed themselves into the early stages of the title conversation. With Arsenal arriving at Stamford Bridge without William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhães for only the second time in one hundred and sixty two Premier League matches, the moment appeared ideal for Chelsea to close the six point gap at the top.

Chelsea began with confidence and intent. Inside the opening forty minutes, Arsenal had received three yellow cards compared to Chelsea’s one. The home side controlled the early exchanges, led the shot count by four to one and created the better chances. Estêvão fired over from a central position twelve yards out, passing up the clearest opportunity of the first half. Chelsea looked well positioned to take control of the match.

The turning point arrived shortly after. Moisés Caicedo launched into a reckless challenge on Mikel Merino. Although the initial decision was a yellow card, the Video Assistant Referee recommended a review. Once the referee viewed the images showing Caicedo’s studs planted above Merino’s ankle, a dismissal became unavoidable. Chelsea lost their most influential midfielder and the rhythm of the match changed completely.

Despite being reduced to ten players, Chelsea fought bravely. Trevoh Chalobah headed them in front early in the second half and although Merino equalised soon afterwards, the home side managed to hold on for a point. They also created occasional chances on the counterattack despite the disadvantage.

The sense of opportunity lost remained unavoidable. Chelsea began the afternoon with energy, control and the belief that they could defeat the league leaders. Instead, they finished another match feeling the consequences of a red card. It was the fourth time in thirteen Premier League matches that Chelsea have had a player dismissed. That works out to one red card every three point two five matches or zero point three one per game. No team in Premier League history has ever averaged red cards at this frequency across an entire season. At their current pace, Chelsea are on track to record eleven point seven dismissals, which would surpass the existing record of nine shared by Sunderland in the two thousand nine to ten season and Queens Park Rangers in the two thousand eleven to twelve season.

The problem extends beyond the league. Nicolas Jackson was sent off in the Club World Cup against Flamengo. João Pedro received a red card in the Champions League against Benfica. Liam Delap collected two avoidable yellow cards in the EFL Cup match against Wolves. All these moments reflect a broader pattern.

Maresca himself is not immune from scrutiny. No manager has been shown more cards in Premier League matches since the beginning of last season. His total of eight matches that of Brighton coach Fabian Hürzeler. Maresca has also been cautioned in the Champions League against both Barcelona and Bayern Munich, making him the most carded manager in that competition this season. His own touchline behaviour may be influencing the temperament of his players.

The issue also predates Maresca. Under Mauricio Pochettino in the two thousand twenty three to twenty four season, Chelsea produced the highest yellow card rate of any Premier League manager with at least twenty matches in charge. Many of the players who accumulated large numbers of cautions remain. Caicedo finished that season with eleven yellow cards. Marc Cucurella reached ten. Cole Palmer, Enzo Fernández and Malo Gusto all collected seven. Chelsea finished with one hundred and five yellow cards, the highest single season total in Premier League history, yet they recorded only four red cards. That number has already been matched in the current season, but the accumulation has come far quicker and with far greater impact.

This season, yellow cards are not the issue. Chelsea average one point nine cautions per match, which is within a normal range. The issue is the frequency and timing of red cards. Three of the four league dismissals have been straight reds. The only one that was not occurred when Chelsea were already three goals ahead at Nottingham Forest, and therefore it did not influence the result. The other three red cards arrived during the first hour of the match and in each case Chelsea dropped points.

At Manchester United in September, goalkeeper Robert Sánchez was dismissed within five minutes and Chelsea went on to lose two to one. Against Brighton, Chalobah’s dismissal arrived in the fifty third minute with Chelsea leading one nil. They eventually lost three to one. Against Arsenal, Caicedo’s dismissal arrived with the game goalless and Chelsea had to settle for a draw.

Across their matches with red cards, Chelsea have dropped eight points. If they had not suffered those dismissals, it is impossible to say definitively what the results would have been, but maintaining eleven players would have greatly improved their chances.

When Chelsea finish with a full team, they average two point two points per match. When they play with ten, the average drops significantly to one point three. Arsenal, who have not received a red card this season, average two point three points per match. If Chelsea had sustained their two point two point average across the season, they would sit on twenty nine points, only one behind Arsenal instead of six.

Chelsea have also experienced inconsistency even with eleven players, including draws with Crystal Palace and Brentford and a defeat to Sunderland. This reflects the natural volatility of a young and developing team. However, the unnecessary red cards create additional hurdles and reduce the margin for error.

Against Arsenal, Chelsea genuinely looked capable of earning a pivotal victory until the dismissal changed everything. A win would have cut the gap to three points and placed real pressure on the league leaders. Instead, the gap remains six and the title race looks more distant.

It may be unrealistic to expect a young squad that has only recently been assembled to sustain a title challenge. Youth brings energy and potential but it also brings inconsistency. Even so, Chelsea’s ill discipline is making their task more difficult than it needs to be.

If Chelsea hope to remain competitive at the top of the table, they must urgently control the behaviour that is producing red cards at a historic rate. Only then can they hope to stay within sight of Arsenal as the season progresses.

If they manage to correct that, a return to the title conversation remains possible. If not, the opportunity may pass them by.