Old Trafford sets the stage on Saturday for a high stakes Manchester derby, with Michael Carrick preparing to take charge of his first match since being appointed Manchester United’s caretaker head coach. And it doesn’t get much tougher than welcoming Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City.
Carrick, who briefly led United in late 2021, returns to the dugout following Ruben Amorim’s dismissal earlier this month. After a short interim spell under Darren Fletcher that produced a league draw with Burnley and an FA Cup exit to Brighton, United have now handed Carrick the reins until the end of the season.
Despite a turbulent campaign that has already seen them knocked out of both domestic cups, United remain firmly in the European qualification picture. They currently sit seventh, and victory in the weekend’s early kick off could lift them into the top four before the rest of the fixtures are played.
Opta numbers favour City
According to Opta’s supercomputer projections, City arrive as favourites. The champions were victorious in just over half of the simulations at 50.6 percent, while United were given a 25.9 percent chance of claiming all three points. The draw stands at 23.5 percent.
City’s form, however, has not been flawless. While they beat Newcastle 2 to 0 in the EFL Cup semi final first leg and crushed Exeter 10 to 1 in the FA Cup, Guardiola’s side have drawn their last three Premier League matches, slipping six points behind leaders Arsenal. They have not strung together more league draws since a seven match run back in 2009.
United are on a similar path, having also recorded three straight league stalemates, their longest such sequence since 1992. Remarkably, this will be the first Premier League meeting since 2001 where both sides enter the fixture on runs of at least three consecutive draws.
Carrick’s reunion and a familiar challenge
Carrick’s first task is daunting, stopping a City side stacked with attacking firepower. Still, there is a small historical comfort. During his playing career, only Sunderland brought Carrick more Premier League wins than City did, as he enjoyed 13 league victories over the blue half of Manchester.
City have shown vulnerability in recent weeks, surrendering leads against both Brighton and Chelsea. Yet United have struggled even more to protect advantages, with only Bournemouth, West Ham and Chelsea dropping more points from winning positions this season.
Haaland, Foden and City’s forward threat
Erling Haaland may be experiencing a rare quiet spell, just one goal in his last six appearances, but United have often been the striker’s favourite opponents. No City player has had a hand in more Premier League goals against United than Haaland, who has eight goals and three assists against them, including a devastating two goal one assist display at Old Trafford in 2023.
Phil Foden is another who tends to thrive in this fixture, having scored seven league goals against United, a tally bettered only by his record against Brighton.
Beyond those two, City have further reasons for optimism. Rayan Cherki has been one of Europe’s most productive attackers since November, and new signing Antoine Semenyo has already found the net in both of his first two appearances for the club. Semenyo, previously linked with United, knows Old Trafford well after scoring there for Bournemouth earlier this season.
United’s hope: creativity and returning faces
For United, there is renewed optimism in midfield and attack. Bruno Fernandes is back from injury and continues to be one of the league’s most influential creators. Since November, only Haaland and Igor Thiago have been involved in more Premier League goals than the United captain, who also leads the division for chances created.
Bryan Mbeumo and Amad have also returned from Africa Cup of Nations duty, strengthening Carrick’s options, while Benjamin Sesko has added pace and presence to the frontline.
Statistically, United are not far behind City going forward. Only Guardiola’s side have posted a higher expected goals figure this season, suggesting that opportunities should not be in short supply, particularly with City currently dealing with defensive injury problems.
Derby history leans blue
Recent meetings at Old Trafford have been difficult for United. They have failed to score in four of their last five home league games against City, and no visiting side has won more Premier League matches there than Guardiola’s team.
City have also scored 37 league goals away to United, bettered only by Liverpool.
Prediction
City’s greater stability and attacking depth make them deserved favourites, but derbies have a habit of ignoring logic. With Carrick beginning a new chapter and United still capable of creating chances in volume, this contest may prove far tighter than recent Old Trafford meetings suggest.
Opta probabilities:
Man City win: 50.6 percent
Man United win: 25.9 percent
Draw: 23.5 percent
Saturday’s showdown will reveal whether Carrick’s return can spark an immediate response or whether City’s derby dominance continues.
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