Sure Premier League Match Predictions

With the support of the GalaxySports Computer, we deliver comprehensive, data backed projections for every fixture in the 2025-26 Premier League season. Our advanced simulation model runs thousands of outcomes per match to calculate win, draw and loss probabilities, while also forecasting broader season trends.

After proving highly accurate last season, the GalaxySports Computer once again provides weekly insight into the title race, European qualification battle and relegation fight.

Matchday 27 Preview

The championship race took another dramatic twist after Arsenal conceded deep into stoppage time in a 2-2 draw at Molineux. A victory would have taken them seven points clear, but instead they now sit five ahead of Manchester City, having played one game more. Guardiola’s side therefore have a chance to close the gap this weekend.

Aston Villa remain third and still hold a five point cushion over Manchester United. Carrick’s unbeaten managerial streak may have ended, yet a last minute equaliser ensured United avoided defeat against West Ham.

Chelsea’s 2-2 draw with Leeds further tightened the race for UEFA Champions League qualification. Liverpool capitalised by boosting morale with league and FA Cup victories over Sunderland and Brighton.

Two managerial changes have occurred since the last round. Tottenham dismissed Thomas Frank and appointed Igor Tudor. Nottingham Forest replaced Sean Dyche with Vítor Pereira. Both clubs remain dangerously close to the bottom three, with West Ham attempting to reel them in.

The weekend begins with three Saturday 3pm GMT fixtures as Aston Villa host Leeds, Chelsea face Burnley and Brighton meet Brentford. West Ham then welcome Bournemouth before Manchester City conclude Saturday against Newcastle at the Etihad.

Sunday features four matches, including Pereira and Tudor taking charge of their new teams in the league for the first time. Forest face Liverpool, while Tottenham meet Arsenal in a decisive North London derby. The round ends Monday at Hill Dickinson Stadium where David Moyes’ Everton host his former club Manchester United.

GalaxySports Computer Quick Hits

Chelsea are the strongest favourites of Matchday 27 with a 75.7 percent chance of defeating Burnley.

Arsenal are the most favoured away side, winning 60.1 percent of simulations against Tottenham.

Sunderland versus Fulham carries the highest probability of a draw.

Everton versus Manchester United is projected as the second most likely draw.

Saturday 21 February

Aston Villa vs Leeds United

Villa ended their brief wobble with victory over Brighton in the league, though a red card to Marco Bizot contributed to their 3-1 FA Cup defeat to Newcastle. Under Unai Emery, Villa are unbeaten in 18 Premier League games against promoted sides, recording 14 wins and four draws.

The GalaxySports Computer assigns Villa a 66.2 percent chance of victory, the second highest of the weekend. Leeds win 15.4 percent of simulations, with 18.4 percent ending level.

Since the start of December, only Manchester City and Manchester United have lost fewer league matches than Leeds, just two, though they have drawn seven in that period.

Brighton vs Brentford

Brentford narrowly overcame Macclesfield in the FA Cup but sit seventh in the league. Manager Keith Andrews averages 1.54 points per game in the Premier League, second among Republic of Ireland managers behind David O’Leary’s 1.56.

Brentford win 48.9 percent of simulations, compared to Brighton’s 25.4 percent.

Brighton have won just one league match since early December, drawing six and losing six. James Milner could make his 654th Premier League appearance, surpassing Gareth Barry’s record.

Chelsea vs Burnley

Burnley ended a 16 game winless league streak with a 3-2 victory over Crystal Palace but were subsequently eliminated from the FA Cup by Mansfield Town.

Chelsea are overwhelming favourites, winning 75.7 percent of simulations. Burnley’s win probability stands at 9.9 percent.

Chelsea have already lost at home 2-1 to Sunderland and 3-1 at Leeds this season but have never lost to all three promoted sides in a single campaign. They have also dropped 15 points from winning positions at Stamford Bridge, the most by any team at home.

West Ham vs Bournemouth

West Ham have earned 10 points from their last five league matches, matching the total from their previous 15.

Bournemouth won their first ever Premier League game at West Ham in August 2015 but have won just once in seven visits since.

Bournemouth win 43.7 percent of simulations, West Ham 31.1 percent and the draw stands at 25.2 percent. Each of the last five league meetings between the sides ended level.

Manchester City vs Newcastle United

City seek a third straight league victory. They are unbeaten in their last 21 home league games against Newcastle, winning the last 16.

Historically, only Everton have recorded a longer home winning run against one opponent, 22 against Fulham between 1961 and 2018.

City have also won six consecutive home league games against Newcastle without conceding.

Newcastle won the reverse fixture 2-1 in November and aim for their first league double over City since 1955-56.

City win 58.4 percent of simulations and lose only 20 percent.

Sunday 22 February

Sunderland vs Fulham

Sunderland last beat Fulham at home in league competition in December 2017 in the Championship. They are winless in five home Premier League meetings against Fulham.

Fulham seek their first league double over Sunderland since 2002-03.

Sunderland win 39.5 percent of simulations, Fulham 33.9 percent, with 26.6 percent ending level.

Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool

Each of Forest’s last six Premier League managers lost their first game in charge.

Liverpool win 51 percent of simulations, while Forest claim victory in 25.7 percent.

Liverpool have won just one of their last 15 away league games against Forest, including a 1-0 victory in March 2024 secured by a late Darwin Núñez header. Forest are unbeaten in their last three overall meetings.

Crystal Palace vs Wolves

Palace have failed to win any of their last eight home league games, their worst top flight run since 1997-98.

Only 37.5 percent of Palace’s points this season have come at home, lower than every side except Spurs at 34.5 percent.

Wolves became the first bottom club to avoid defeat from 2-0 down against the league leaders after drawing 2-2 with Arsenal. However, they remain without an away league win this season, drawing four and losing nine.

Palace win 62 percent of simulations, Wolves 17.9 percent.

Tottenham vs Arsenal

Tudor has begun each of his last five managerial spells with a victory. The only previous Spurs manager to face Arsenal in his first match was Glenn Hoddle, who lost 2-1 in an FA Cup semi final in 2001.

Arsenal have won 41 of 68 London derbies under Arteta, a 60.3 percent win rate. They have won six of their last seven league meetings with Spurs and the last four in succession.

The GalaxySports Computer gives Arsenal a 60.1 percent win probability, Tottenham 19.3 percent and the draw 20.6 percent.

Tottenham are the only Premier League side without a win in 2026, drawing four and losing four.

Monday 23 February

Everton vs Manchester United

United remain unbeaten in the Premier League in 2026 and have collected 15 points, more than any other side in that period.

Everton won the reverse fixture 1-0 in November and seek just their second league double over United, last achieved in 2013-14 when Moyes was in charge at Old Trafford.

Carrick previously played 25 league games under Moyes in 2013-14.

Everton win 37.1 percent of simulations, United 36.6 percent, with 26.3 percent ending in a draw.

Closing Summary

Matchday 27 promises decisive moments across the table. Chelsea and Arsenal emerge as the strongest statistical favourites, while Sunderland versus Fulham and Everton versus Manchester United appear the most finely balanced contests.

With the title race tightening, European qualification intensifying and the relegation scrap heating up, the GalaxySports Computer indicates that every single point could prove decisive in the 2025-26 Premier League season.