The Opta SuperComputer has released its latest projections for this season’s UEFA Champions League following the conclusion of the Round of 16 draw on Friday.
With the knockout fixtures now confirmed, the data analysts have recalculated each remaining club’s probability of lifting the trophy at the end of the campaign. The updated rankings place Arsenal as the leading contenders to be crowned champions of Europe.
Several heavyweight clashes headline the Round of 16. Defending champions Manchester City will once again face Spanish giants Real Madrid in what many consider an early final. The two sides have developed a fierce rivalry in recent seasons and their meeting is expected to draw global attention.
French champions Paris Saint-Germain have been paired with Chelsea in another standout fixture. Meanwhile, Arsenal are set to take on German champions Bayer Leverkusen as they look to continue their impressive European campaign.
Elsewhere, Newcastle United will battle Spanish powerhouse Barcelona for a place in the quarter finals. German heavyweights Bayern Munich have been drawn against Italian side Atalanta in what promises to be a tactical encounter.
According to Opta’s SuperComputer simulations, Arsenal currently have a 27.4 percent chance of winning the competition, the highest among the remaining teams. Bayern Munich are ranked second with a 14.3 percent probability.
Liverpool are given a 12.8 percent chance of lifting the trophy, while Manchester City are rated at 10.8 percent despite being the defending champions. Barcelona are backed with a 7.7 percent probability, and Chelsea are assigned a 6.9 percent chance of emerging victorious.
The projections are based on thousands of simulations that factor in team strength, historical performance, current form and the difficulty of each team’s path to the final. However, as history has shown, the Champions League often delivers surprises, meaning the final outcome could defy statistical expectations.
Opta SuperComputer probability to win the Champions League
Arsenal 27.4 percent
Bayern Munich 14.3 percent
Liverpool 12.8 percent
Manchester City 10.8 percent
Barcelona 7.7 percent
Chelsea 6.9 percent
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