Analysis: Arsenal vs Man City, Who Has the Easier Path to the Premier League Title?

With the Premier League season entering its decisive phase, the battle for the title between Arsenal and Manchester City is heating up. The Gunners currently sit seven points clear at the top of the table, although City still have a game in hand that could reduce the gap to four points. The big question now is which side faces the more manageable run of fixtures as the campaign approaches its conclusion.

Arsenal are aiming to end a long wait for the league crown, having last won the title in the 2003–04 season. With only eight matches remaining, Mikel Arteta’s team are in a strong position, but the chasing champions led by Pep Guardiola remain firmly in contention.

Here is how their remaining schedules compare.

Arsenal’s remaining fixtures:
Everton (H), Bournemouth (H), Man City (A), Newcastle (H), Fulham (H), West Ham (A), Burnley (H), Crystal Palace (A).

Manchester City’s remaining fixtures:
West Ham (A), Crystal Palace (H), Chelsea (A), Arsenal (H), Burnley (A), Everton (A), Brentford (H), Bournemouth (A), Aston Villa (H).

According to the Opta Power Rankings, which rate teams across world football on a scale from 0 to 100, Arsenal appear to have a slightly less demanding schedule. By averaging the ratings of each club’s remaining opponents, the Gunners’ run-in comes out marginally easier. Their opponents carry an average rating of 90.2, while City’s remaining rivals average 91.4.

That difference may seem small, but in the wider league context it is significant. City’s remaining schedule ranks among the tougher ones in the division, with only a handful of teams facing more difficult fixtures. Guardiola’s side still have challenging matches against opponents such as Chelsea, Everton, Brentford and Aston Villa.

Arsenal’s run-in, by contrast, looks slightly kinder. Before travelling to the Etihad Stadium, they host both Everton and Bournemouth. After the clash with City, they still have games against West Ham United and Burnley, who are currently battling relegation, along with home encounters against Newcastle United and Fulham.

Home and away performance also strengthens Arsenal’s case. When analysing opponents based on their points-per-game record in the relevant venue, Arsenal’s remaining opponents average 1.20 points per game. City’s remaining rivals average 1.46 in the same measure, suggesting Guardiola’s side may face sterner resistance.

Looking at last season’s results in similar fixtures offers another perspective. Excluding Burnley, who were not in the league last year, City earned 19 points from those matchups while Arsenal collected 14. If those outcomes were repeated this season, Arsenal would still finish top of the table, though by a narrow margin.

Statistical models also favour the North London club. Simulations run by Opta’s supercomputer, which projected the remainder of the season 10,000 times, give Arsenal a 94.4 percent chance of winning the title.

History further supports their position. Only once in Premier League history has a team failed to win the title after leading by seven or more points at this stage of the season. That exception came during the 1997–98 campaign, when Manchester United lost a nine-point advantage to Arsenal before the Gunners eventually secured the trophy.

Overall, the numbers suggest Arsenal are in the stronger position. However, the final weeks of a title race often come down to mentality and composure. For Arteta’s side, the biggest test may not be City’s challenge, but handling the pressure of turning a commanding position into silverware.