Saturday’s Premier League clash at the Emirates Stadium sees Arsenal host Bournemouth as Mikel Arteta’s side aim to strengthen their hold at the top of the table and move closer to a first league title in 22 years.
Arsenal are strong favourites heading into the game, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 72.2% win probability. Bournemouth’s chances stand at 11.8%, while 16% of simulations predict a draw.
Arsenal’s defensive record has been one of the standout statistics of the season, as they are averaging just 0.71 expected goals against per game (22.1 xGA in 31 matches), the lowest by any side in a single Premier League season since Manchester City in 2021–22 (0.65 per game). They have also registered 64 direct attacks, scoring six goals from those moves.
Bournemouth are not without attacking threat, recording 65 direct attacks and scoring five goals from them, making them one of the most dangerous transition teams in the league despite their mid-table position.
Arsenal’s season has recently included setbacks in cup competitions, losing the EFL Cup final to Manchester City and suffering a shock FA Cup quarter-final exit to Southampton. However, they responded with a crucial 1-0 Champions League win over Sporting CP, secured by a 91st-minute Kai Havertz goal.
That victory keeps them on track for a potential fifth consecutive Premier League win for the third time this season. Arsenal have only achieved such a run twice before in the modern era, during the 2013–14 and 2022–23 campaigns.
A win here could extend Arsenal’s lead at the top to 12 points before Manchester City play, giving them a psychological advantage ahead of their clash with Pep Guardiola’s side on 19 April.
Bournemouth, managed by Andoni Iraola, arrive in solid but frustrating form. They are 13th in the table but only four points off seventh place. They are currently on a club-record-equalling 11-game unbeaten Premier League run, although five of those matches have ended in draws.
Another draw would see Bournemouth become the first team since Manchester City in 2009 to draw six consecutive Premier League matches.
In their most recent match, Bournemouth drew 2-2 with Manchester United. Eli Junior Kroupi scored his ninth Premier League goal of the season, and if he reaches 10 before the end of the campaign, he will become the first teenager since Robbie Keane in 1999–00 to score double figures in a debut Premier League season.
Kroupi’s availability remains in doubt after withdrawing from France Under-21 duty due to injury, while Tyler Adams and Lewis Cook are also being assessed for selection.
Arsenal will also monitor fitness concerns, with Bukayo Saka and Jurriën Timber both doubts after missing the midweek squad against Sporting CP.
Head-to-head history adds another layer. Bournemouth won this fixture 2-1 last season, ending Arsenal’s eight-game home winning run against them. That win was part of a league double, their first in 14 meetings.
However, Arsenal won the reverse fixture this season 2-1, with Declan Rice scoring twice after Evanilson opened the scoring, before Kroupi added a late goal. Rice has now scored and contributed to seven goals against Bournemouth, more than against any other opponent.
With Arsenal’s defensive dominance, Bournemouth’s draw-heavy run, and the Opta model heavily favouring the Gunners at 72.2%, the data points strongly toward a home win, but Bournemouth’s unbeaten streak and transition threat suggest they cannot be completely ruled out.
Should we send you latest update about your favourite sports and team?
Enter you email in the box below and hit the subscribe button to join our teaming 876+ sports community.
