Liverpool are on the verge of clinching the Premier League title, needing just one point from Sunday’s match against Tottenham Hotspur at Anfield to seal the deal. With a 12-point lead following Arsenal’s 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace, the Reds have the finish line in sight.
According to the Opta supercomputer, Liverpool have an 87.7 percent chance of winning the title this weekend, and a 71.8 percent likelihood of doing so with a victory. A draw would also be enough, while only a defeat would delay the celebrations.
Arne Slot is on the brink of history. He could become the first Dutch manager to win the Premier League and only the fifth to do so in his debut season, following Mourinho, Ancelotti, Pellegrini, and Conte. Slot’s Liverpool have averaged 2.39 points per game this season, a figure bettered by only three of Klopp’s full campaigns.
The Reds have already matched their total of 24 wins from last season with five games still to play. A win on Sunday would also bring them level with last season’s points tally of 82. They’ve scored in 29 straight Premier League matches since a 1-0 loss to Nottingham Forest in September, the second-longest scoring run in a single campaign behind Arsenal’s perfect 38-game streak in 2001-02.
Mohamed Salah leads the league with 27 goals but is currently on a four-game drought. That said, he’s historically been a nightmare for Spurs, scoring 15 times against them in all competitions, including 11 in the league. Only Alan Shearer, with 14, has scored more against Tottenham in Premier League history.
For Spurs, the contrast is sharp. Ange Postecoglou’s side sit 16th, with 37 points from 33 matches. While they’re safe from relegation, it’s hardly a campaign to remember. Tottenham have lost 18 league games this season. Only twice have they fared worse, with 19 defeats in 1993-94 and 2003-04. Their lowest-ever Premier League finish is 15th, and that record is under threat.
Postecoglou had set his sights on a trophy this season. That dream still lives on in Europe, with Spurs in the UEFA Europa League semi-finals. But in domestic play, the numbers are grim. They have lost four of their last five league games, even though Richarlison has scored in four of those outings. No player has scored in more defeats this season than the Brazilian, except Wolves’ Matheus Cunha.
Tottenham have a dismal recent record against Liverpool. They’ve won just two of their last 24 Premier League meetings with the Reds, both at home. They’ve failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 18 league games against them and have conceded 10 goals to Liverpool this season alone — six in the Premier League and four in the EFL Cup semi-final second leg.
At Anfield, Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 15 home games against Spurs in all competitions, winning the last three and scoring four goals in each of those matches.
The prediction is clear. Opta gives Liverpool a 71.8 percent chance of winning, while Tottenham have only a 12.3 percent chance. The draw stands at 15.9 percent, which would still be enough for Liverpool to confirm themselves as champions by full-time on Sunday.
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