Club World Cup Clash: Real Madrid and Dortmund Set for Heavyweight Showdown
Real Madrid are tipped to have the edge going into this highly anticipated showdown with Borussia Dortmund, with the Opta supercomputer giving Los Blancos a 59.7% chance of progressing to the next round.
This quarter-final marks the fifth time these two giants have faced off in a knockout stage. Real Madrid have dominated the head-to-head, winning three of the previous four, including their most recent victory in the 2024 UEFA Champions League final.
Madrid’s New Star Shines
Gonzalo García has stolen the spotlight. The 21-year-old forward added another chapter to his breakout campaign by scoring the winner in Madrid’s 1-0 triumph over Juventus. That goal — his third of the tournament — came after earlier strikes against Al-Hilal and Salzburg. He also grabbed an assist in the match against Pachuca, making him the only player to have contributed directly to a goal in every one of Madrid’s Club World Cup games this year.
The decisive goal came courtesy of a sharp delivery from new recruit Trent Alexander-Arnold, who notched his first assist in a Madrid shirt.
In a dominant display, Madrid peppered Juventus with 21 shots — 11 on target — compared to just six from the Italians. That attacking firepower dwarfed their total output during the group stage, where they managed 14 shots on target across three games.
Quarter-Final Opponents: Dortmund on the Rise
Borussia Dortmund earned their spot in the last eight by edging Monterrey 2-1. Serhou Guirassy bagged a quick-fire brace in the first half, and despite a strong second-half push from the Mexican side, Dortmund held on.
Manager Niko Kovač praised his players for their first-half brilliance and second-half grit. Since his appointment, Dortmund have found serious form — they’ve now won nine of their last 10 matches in all competitions (one draw), a stark contrast to the inconsistency they showed before his arrival.
Madrid’s Upper Hand in Recent Duels
Madrid have enjoyed a strong record against the Bundesliga outfit, winning each of their last four meetings — all in the Champions League. Their most recent clash ended in a commanding 5-2 win in the group stage.
Dortmund’s last knockout victory over Madrid came back in 2013, when Robert Lewandowski lit up the tie with a stunning four-goal haul.
Bellingham Reunion… Almost
Jude Bellingham will once again face his former team, having already delivered an assist in each of his two previous games against Dortmund — both for Vinícius Júnior. But this time, the family reunion is incomplete, with younger brother Jobe suspended after picking up a yellow card in the last round.
Who Goes Through?
According to Opta’s 10,000 simulations, Madrid reached the semi-finals 59.7% of the time — and they sealed it in normal time in nearly half (47.4%) of those scenarios. Dortmund only triumphed in 27.4% of simulations during regular time, but their total chances (including extra time and penalties) rose to 40.3%.
Team Squads
Real Madrid Squad:
Courtois, Lunin, González, Mestre, Alexander-Arnold, Carvajal, Militão, Alaba, Vázquez, Fran García, Rüdiger, Mendy, Huijsen, Enríquez, Ramón, Aguado, Asencio, Fortea, Bellingham, Tchouaméni, Camavinga, Valverde, Modric, Güler, Ceballos, Andres, Muñoz, Martin, Vinícius Júnior, Mbappé, Rodrygo, Endrick, García, Brahim Díaz
Coach: Xabi Alonso
Borussia Dortmund Squad:
Kobel, Couto, Anton, Bensebaini, Reyna, Nmecha, Guirassy, Brandt, Groß, Beier, Duranville, Chukwuemeka, Sabitzer, Svensson, Süle, Ryerson, Adeyemi, Ostrzinski, Meyer, Campbell, Wätjen, Mané, Inacio, Albert, Kabar, Gittens, Coulibaly, Azhil, Benkara, Jobe Bellingham
Coach: Niko Kovač
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta system ranks over 13,000 football teams worldwide on a 0–100 scale. Real Madrid, one of the highest-ranked teams globally, enter this fixture with superior metrics, both historically and recently. Dortmund’s ranking has improved under Kovač, but Madrid remain the benchmark.
This promises to be a battle of form versus pedigree — and the stats say Madrid may just have enough to edge it.
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