Manchester United will welcome Everton to Old Trafford on Monday night as the club quietly celebrates the one year anniversary of Ruben Amorim’s arrival. Our supercomputer views United as favourites, although the margin is not overwhelming, and both clubs enter the match carrying contrasting motivations and concerns.
Key Numbers Before Kickoff
Our supercomputer gives Manchester United a fifty point nine percent probability of winning.
Everton are given a twenty four point two percent chance. United have collected four consecutive Premier League home victories. Everton have not won a Premier League match on a Monday night in nine attempts.
United’s form at Old Trafford has improved notably this season. Before this recent run, they had recorded only three home league wins across their previous thirteen fixtures. Their current streak of four straight victories is their best since a period from April to August in the year twenty twenty three.
One Year Under Amorim
Amorim’s impact has been mixed. United have shown signs of progress but have not fully convinced their supporters. Their improvement is most visible in their first half performances. They have scored eleven goals before halftime, the most among all Premier League teams, while only Arsenal and Crystal Palace have conceded fewer in the opening part of matches.
However, the second half remains a significant problem. United have allowed fourteen goals after the interval, the worst record in the league. The side have compensated in part by demonstrating greater resilience late in matches. They have altered results through goals scored after the eightieth minute in three of their last four league outings. Only two previous Manchester United sides have produced similar late turnarounds in such a short period.
United have also become difficult to silence. In their last two matches they opened the scoring, fell behind, and still avoided defeat. Their draws with Nottingham Forest and Tottenham made them the first Premier League club since Manchester City in twenty twelve to produce this pattern in consecutive matches.
Bryan Mbeumo remains central to their attacking output. No United player has been involved in more Premier League goals this season. He has five goals and one assist. Yet Everton remain a difficult opponent for him, as he has never recorded a goal or assist against them in eight previous meetings.
Everton’s Situation
Everton travel to Old Trafford on the back of a two goal victory over Fulham that ended a short winless run. The club remains in a precarious league position, occupying thirteenth place but looking nervously over their shoulder at the lower part of the table.
Their record in Monday night matches continues to be a major hurdle. They have not won such a fixture since a two one win over Arsenal in December twenty twenty one. Away from home the record is even worse. Everton have not won an away Premier League match on a Monday night since a three goal victory over Sunderland in twenty sixteen.
David Moyes returns to the stadium where he once succeeded Sir Alex Ferguson. His overall record against United since leaving the club has been poor. Nevertheless, he has a potential match winner in Jack Grealish. The Manchester City loanee produced four assists from his first three Premier League appearances for Everton and earned the August Player of the Month award. Despite creating nineteen chances in his last seven matches none have been converted by his teammates.
Moyes has used fewer players than any other manager in the division this season. His total stands at nineteen, which reflects both a preference for consistency and a limited squad. Fortunately for the Everton manager, injuries are not a major concern. Jarrad Branthwaite is the only long term absentee while Nathan Patterson remains doubtful.
Manchester United Team News
Amorim’s squad is also relatively healthy. Harry Maguire and Benjamin Sesko will not feature after sustaining injuries during the draw with Tottenham. Kobbie Mainoo may return if he completes full training before the match. Lisandro Martínez could also be involved for the first time since his serious knee injury in February.
Head to Head
Manchester United enjoy a dominant history against Everton in the Premier League. Their forty two victories over the Toffees are the most any club has registered against a single opponent in the competition. Everton have won only one of their last twelve meetings with United. That win came in April twenty twenty two at Goodison Park.
At Old Trafford the figures become even more lopsided. Everton have earned only one win in their last thirty two visits. That victory came in December twenty thirteen.
Prediction
The Opta supercomputer strongly favours Manchester United to win, with a probability of fifty point nine percent. Everton’s chances remain below twenty five percent and the draw is calculated at twenty four point nine percent.
The simulation also projects final league positions. United are most likely to finish eighth in the table. Their probability of finishing fourth stands at a little more than six percent. Everton are most likely to end the season in fourteenth place.
Predicted Lineups
Manchester United:
Senne Lammens, Matthijs de Ligt, Harry Maguire, Luke Shaw, Amad Diallo, Casemiro, Bruno Fernandes, Patrick Dorgu, Bryan Mbeumo, Mason Mount, Matheus Cunha
Head coach: Ruben Amorim
Everton:
Jordan Pickford, Jake O’Brien, James Tarkowski, Michael Keane, Vitalii Mykolenko, James Garner, Idrissa Gueye, Jack Grealish, Iliman Ndiaye, Kiernan Dewsbury Hall, Thierno Barry
Head coach: David Moyes.
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