Man City vs Bayer Leverkusen Preview: Guardiola Targets Another Champions League Milestone
Pep Guardiola steps into another historic moment on Tuesday night at the Etihad Stadium. The Manchester City manager is preparing for his 100th Champions League match in charge of the club, and the question hanging in the air is simple. Will the milestone come with a win? Our full preview and prediction examine that possibility.
Key Numbers to Know Before Kick-off
Manchester City have dominated German visitors in Europe. They have won 13 consecutive Champions League home matches against teams from Germany. The Opta supercomputer backs them strongly again, giving them a 72.7 percent chance of winning.
Pep Guardiola becomes the third manager to reach one hundred Champions League games with an English side. Only Alex Ferguson and Arsรจne Wenger have managed more.
Erling Haaland is set for his fiftieth Champions League start. The Norwegian forward has scored in five straight matches in the competition and is chasing a sixth. His record already stands at 54 goals in 49 starts, plus three substitute appearances. He has scored 10 goals in his last nine matches against German clubs.
City saw their winning run in all competitions end on Saturday. They lost 2-1 to Newcastle United at St. Jamesโ Park after a frustrating performance that included two overturned penalty claims and a long VAR review before Harvey Barnesโ deciding goal was confirmed.
Returning to Europe offers City the perfect reset. They are unbeaten in the league phase this season with 10 points and are searching for a third straight Champions League victory. City have not lost at home in the group or league phase for 23 matches. That spell includes 20 victories and three draws. They have also not trailed at any point in this seasonโs competition, spending 62 percent of their total match time in the lead.
In terms of ball dominance, City top the 2025 to 2026 Champions League charts. They have completed 2,511 passes at an accuracy of 91.9 percent. They lead in open play sequences of 10 or more passes with 95, and they average 6.2 passes per sequence.
On the other side, Bayer Leverkusen arrive with a boost of confidence. Kasper Hjulmandโs team claimed their first win of the Champions League campaign by beating Benfica 1-0. That result sparked a three game winning run across all competitions. A 3-1 victory over Wolfsburg last weekend lifted them to third in the Bundesliga.
Leverkusen are attempting to reach their 50th win in the European Cup or Champions League. They have lost only three of their last 20 matches in UEFA group or league play, with 12 wins and five draws.
Their history in Europe includes a memorable run in 2002 when Michael Ballack, Oliver Neuville and Lรบcio helped them reach the final. Real Madrid denied them the trophy with Zinedine Zidaneโs famous volley.
Recent visits to England have been difficult for Leverkusen. They have lost eight of their last ten away Champions League games on English soil. Their only win in that stretch came at Tottenham in 2016. Their most recent trip ended in a 4-0 defeat at Liverpool last season.
Leverkusen travel without Lucas Vรกzquez and Exequiel Palacios. Nathan Tella and รlex Grimaldo should return. City remain without Mateo Kovacic and Rodri. Kovacic is out until March and Rodri until December.
Head to Head Record
This will be the first competitive meeting between the two clubs. Cityโs overall form against Bundesliga sides is impressive. They have won 19 of their last 24 European matches against German opposition, losing only once. The aggregate score of their 13 straight home wins over German teams is 49 to 13.
Leverkusenโs record in England tells the opposite story. They have one win and one draw in their last ten Champions League away games in the country.
Prediction
The Opta supercomputer strongly leans toward a Manchester City victory. Out of ten thousand simulations, City won 72.7 percent. Leverkusen were given only an 11.2 percent chance of collecting the win they need to reach their 50th European Cup or Champions League victory. A draw came out at 16.1 percent.
Expected Lineups
Manchester City: Gianluigi Donnarumma. Matheus Nunes. Rรบben Dias. Joลกko Gvardiol. Nico Gonzรกlez. Tijjani Reijnders. Phil Foden. Savinho. Jรฉrรฉmy Doku. Erling Haaland.
Coach: Pep Guardiola.
Bayer Leverkusen: Mark Flekken. Jarell Quansah. Loรฏc Badรฉ. Edmond Tapsoba. Ernest Poku. Aleix Garcรญa. Ibrahim Maza. Alex Grimaldo. Jonas Hofmann. Malik Tillman. Patrik Schick.
Coach: Kasper Hjulmand.
Opta Power Rankings Reminder
The Opta Power Rankings evaluate more than thirteen thousand clubs worldwide using scores from zero to one hundred. Higher scores represent stronger teams. The rankings for both clubs ahead of kickoff place Manchester City well above Leverkusen.
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