Chelsea and Arsenal close out the Premier League weekend with a match that may carry huge weight at the top of the table. If Manchester City fail to beat Leeds earlier in the day, this London derby could turn into a rare meeting between the top two sides in the league.
Such encounters are uncommon. Since the Premier League began, the teams in first and second place at the start of a matchday have faced each other only 54 times. Those games have produced 20 wins for the leaders, 20 victories for the chasing team, and 14 draws. On paper, that pattern suggests unpredictability.
Arsenal, however, have been so consistent this season that many consider them the favourites despite the statistical balance. Yet Chelsea under Enzo Maresca have quietly risen into contention. Should they claim three points and reduce the gap to just three, the title race could become far more open than expected.
Arsenal’s Set-Piece Power vs Chelsea’s Set-Piece Fragility
Arsenal have become one of the Premier League’s most dangerous sides from set-piece situations. They already have 10 set-piece goals this season, excluding penalties, which is the highest tally in the league. Even without Gabriel Magalhães, they found a breakthrough from a corner against Bayern Munich, scored by Jurriën Timber.
Chelsea offer their own threat going forward. They have scored eight set-piece goals in the Premier League, the second-highest total, and they create 0.45 expected goals per match from these situations.
The defining contrast appears at the defensive end. Arsenal remain one of Europe’s best teams at handling dead-ball threats. They have allowed just 24 set-piece shots in their first 12 league fixtures, the lowest figure in the division by a clear margin.
Chelsea’s numbers are far more concerning. They have conceded four set-piece goals, but the expected goals against figure is much more alarming. They have allowed 6.2 xG from set pieces, the second-highest in the league after Burnley’s 6.8. That 6.2 represents 43.5 percent of all the expected goals they have conceded this season, the highest share of any Premier League team.
What makes this issue even more damaging is the timing of their concessions. The goals they give away from set pieces repeatedly cost them points. They conceded from a long throw in the 2–1 defeat to Sunderland, allowed a 92nd-minute corner that put Brighton ahead in a match they eventually lost 3–1, gave up a corner goal in the 2–1 loss to Manchester United, and surrendered a late equaliser from a long throw in the 2–2 draw with Brentford. Each of those moments changed the result.
With Arsenal thriving in these situations and Chelsea struggling, this area could heavily influence the match.
Caicedo and Rice: Two Expensive Midfield Anchors with Distinct Strengths
Sunday’s match features two midfielders valued among the most expensive in world football, although Moisés Caicedo and Declan Rice contribute in very different ways.
Caicedo has become one of the league’s best ball-winners. He leads the Premier League this season with 26 interceptions, at least six more than any other player. That is especially impressive because Chelsea enjoy high possession numbers, second only to Liverpool’s 59.3 percent. Despite his deeper role, Caicedo has also scored three league goals, already a personal best, but his primary influence remains in protecting the defence.
Rice has developed into an all-round force. He breaks up play, progresses the ball, makes late runs, and contributes regularly at the attacking end. Across all competitions, only Leandro Trossard with 10 goal involvements and Eberechi Eze with eight have more than Rice’s seven for Arsenal this season. Their heatmaps highlight how Rice covers multiple zones, while Caicedo operates more centrally and closer to his back line.
Both midfielders are vital to their teams and rarely leave the pitch. They are among the players most likely to complete the full match. Control of the midfield battle between them could prove decisive.
Arsenal’s Reinvented Depth and the Rise of the “Finishers”
Arsenal’s progress in recent seasons was often undermined by injuries that exposed a lack of quality options behind the starting XI. That issue has almost disappeared.
The club added seven permanent signings in the summer window and brought in Piero Hincapié on loan. Some of these players did not arrive merely to add depth. Viktor Gyökeres, Eberechi Eze, and Martín Zubimendi went straight into the starting lineup, immediately elevating the team.
When injuries appeared this season, the replacements adapted flawlessly. Cristhian Mosquera and Hincapié stepped in for William Saliba and Gabriel, while Noni Madueke has featured across the forward line.
Arteta has also refined his approach to substitutions. He refers to them as finishers because of their ability to influence games late on. Arsenal showcased this in their Champions League win over Bayern Munich, with Madueke and Gabriel Martinelli scoring from the bench and Riccardo Calafiori assisting one of the goals.
Arsenal have eight substitute goal contributions in the Champions League, more than any other team. Across all competitions, they have 15, producing an average of 0.79 goal involvements per match from substitutes. This is the highest mark of Arteta’s reign and an 83.2 percent rise from last season.
Even with Leandro Trossard withdrawing with a calf injury in midweek, Arsenal’s confidence in their depth remains extremely high.
The Cucurella–Saka Contest: A Battle with Recent History
Stopping Bukayo Saka has become one of the biggest challenges for any Premier League defender. He remains one of the most dangerous right-wingers in world football. Chelsea, however, have a player who has previously coped well with him.
Marc Cucurella’s Chelsea career has included difficult spells, including two errors leading to goals in last season’s Premier League campaign. Yet this season he looks significantly sharper. Across 24 appearances in all competitions, including the Club World Cup, he has avoided major mistakes and has been more reliable in a more settled Chelsea team.
His strongest evidence came in the Champions League this week. Against Barcelona, he completely nullified Lamine Yamal as Chelsea cruised to a 3–0 victory. Cucurella embraces big challenges and has spoken openly about preparing aggressively, joking that he warned teammate Estevão to wear shin guards in training.
Their head-to-head battles also favour the Spaniard. In last season’s 1–1 draw at Stamford Bridge, Saka managed only two shots, both off target, and created no chances. In the Euro 2024 final, Saka did create two opportunities but could not complete a dribble or attempt a shot. Cucurella, on the other hand, supplied the assist for Mikel Oyarzabal’s winning goal.
Arsenal have threats across the pitch, so stopping Saka alone will not solve everything, but Cucurella’s recent history against him gives Chelsea reason for optimism.
SO,
Arsenal arrive with structure, confidence, and a squad deeper than at any time under Mikel Arteta. Chelsea enter with renewed purpose, growing cohesion, and a manager whose ideas are taking hold.
Set-piece execution, midfield control, squad depth, and key individual duels may define the result. If any of these areas swing heavily in one direction, it could determine whether Arsenal strengthen their lead at the top or Chelsea drag themselves directly into the title conversation.
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