Analysis: Is Anthony Elanga the Upgrade Newcastle Have Been Waiting For?

Is Anthony Elanga the Upgrade Newcastle Have Been Waiting For?

Anthony Elanga appears to be on his way from Nottingham Forest to Newcastle United, a transfer three years in the making. But is the Swedish winger truly the long-awaited right-sided weapon for Eddie Howe’s high-flying Magpies?

For context, Jacob Murphy delivered one of the most consistent seasons of his career in 2024/25, directly contributing to 20 of Newcastle’s 68 Premier League goals with eight strikes and 12 assists. His assist tally trailed only Mohamed Salah and included 11 from open play, the highest since Laurent Robert’s 1999/00 campaign. Despite all this, Murphy’s place in the starting eleven could now be under serious threat.

Elanga is reportedly set to arrive for around £55 million, and it’s no surprise. Newcastle’s pursuit of a right-wing upgrade stretches back years. While Miguel Almirón had a purple patch late in 2022, the form wasn’t sustainable. Matt Ritchie’s time as a regular faded with the club’s rise in ambition. And though Yankuba Minteh was seen as a future option, he was loaned out and sold without ever making a first-team appearance.

That left Murphy as the primary right-sided option until now.

The Creative Debate

Elanga’s numbers at Forest are impressive at first glance. Since 2023/24, he’s one of only three Premier League players to hit 20 or more assists alongside Salah and Ollie Watkins. But while his assist total is eye-catching, deeper creative metrics paint a murkier picture.

Forest’s style with low possession and quick breaks limited his involvement in the final third. He averaged just 20.9 touches in the attacking third per 90 minutes. By comparison, Salah, Ødegaard and Cole Palmer were all far more involved.

Open-play chance creation since 2023/24 places Elanga 57th in the league with 60 chances created, 90 fewer than Salah. Even last season, he ranked outside the top 60, level with Erling Haaland and Nicolas Jackson, who aren’t exactly known for their playmaking.

However, standardising data using expected assists per 100 open-play passes gives a more balanced view. Elanga’s 0.39 xA per 100 passes matches Ødegaard’s figure and surpasses the likes of Trent Alexander-Arnold and teammate Morgan Gibbs-White. While Murphy’s rate of 0.65 still outshines Elanga’s, the potential for growth under Newcastle’s system is clear.

Blistering Speed and Relentless Runs

Where Elanga truly excels is with the ball at his feet and space ahead.

In 2024/25, he led all Premier League players in average ball carry distance at 14.3 metres, average progressive carry distance at 11.9 metres, and progressive distance percentage at 75.5 percent. His standout moment came in a clash against Manchester United, a 54.1 metre solo run capped by a goal. It was the longest ball-carry-to-goal distance in the league that season.

He also clocked the highest top speed of any winger or forward at 36.7 kilometres per hour and ranked third in sprints per 90 minutes. He’ll now pair with Anthony Gordon, who led the league in sprint stats, to form a frighteningly dynamic duo.

But he’s not flawless. His take-on success rate of 28 percent lags behind the league average of 38 percent for forwards, showing he’s more effective on the counter than in tight spaces.

Shooting and Versatility

Elanga isn’t known as a prolific scorer, but he showed growth last season. He scored six goals from 44 shots, a 13.6 percent conversion rate, his career best. He also improved his shot accuracy, hitting the target with 55 percent of his attempts despite lower quality chances than the previous season.

More importantly, he’s highly two-footed. Last season, 65 percent of his non-headed shots came off his right foot and 35 percent off his left. Only nine Premier League players attempted 40 or more non-headed shots with such balance. Over his top-flight career, the split is 61 percent right, 39 percent left.

That balance could allow him to cover the left flank when needed, giving Newcastle added tactical flexibility.

What Comes Next

With Champions League football back at St James’ Park, Newcastle will play far more matches this season. Only Brentford and Forest used fewer players in the Premier League last season, and Newcastle will need serious depth heading into a busy schedule.

Elanga becomes Eddie Howe’s first senior signing of the summer. With his pace, flexibility and creative upside, it’s a solid start to a transfer window that promises to be very busy.