Chelsea welcome Aston Villa to Stamford Bridge on Saturday in a game that could have a big say in the Premier League’s top-four race. Both teams start the weekend inside the top four, but despite their close positions on the table, they arrive at this fixture in very different moods.
Chelsea sit fourth while Villa are third, yet a seven-point gap separates them. That margin leaves the Blues almost as close to the bottom half as they are to Unai Emery’s side. On paper, they are neighbours. In reality, Villa look like a team chasing something bigger, while Chelsea are still searching for consistency.
Aston Villa come into the game in frightening form. Emery’s men have won their last 10 matches in all competitions and now stand on the brink of history. Another victory would see them equal the club’s longest-ever winning streak, a record that dates back more than a century. In the league alone, Villa have won seven straight games, a run they last surpassed in top-flight football in 1910.
They have also made London a happy hunting ground. Since Emery’s arrival, Villa have picked up 12 wins from 21 Premier League away games against London clubs, a remarkable turnaround compared to their struggles in the capital in previous seasons. Stamford Bridge has not intimidated them either, with Chelsea losing two of their last three home league meetings against the Villans.
For Chelsea, this fixture presents a familiar problem. Goals have been hard to come by this season, with no clear, reliable scorer emerging. Pedro Neto and João Pedro are joint top scorers in the league with just five goals each, a worrying return for a side with top-four ambitions. Injuries have not helped, with key players missing chunks of the campaign, though Cole Palmer’s return offers some encouragement after he scored in the last home game.
Interestingly, Chelsea have often raised their level against stronger opposition. They are unbeaten this season in league matches against teams that started the day above them, beating Liverpool and Tottenham and drawing with Arsenal. Yet they have stumbled badly in fixtures they were expected to control, suffering home defeats to Brighton and Sunderland and losing away at Leeds.
That contrast is what makes this game so intriguing. Villa arrive flying, led by the outstanding Morgan Rogers, who has been directly involved in more Premier League goals than any other English player this season. His confidence and consistency have become central to Villa’s rise, and even with a few injury concerns in their squad, his presence alone gives the visitors belief.
History between these two sides offers no clear advantage. Last season, both teams won their home league fixtures, and recent meetings have often gone against the expected pattern. However, Emery’s record against Chelsea stands out. Villa have won three of their five league games against the Blues under the Spaniard, matching the number of wins they managed in the previous 20 meetings before his arrival.
According to Opta’s supercomputer, Chelsea are narrow favourites, winning just under 43% of the simulated outcomes. Villa win in around 31% of cases, with draws making up the rest. The numbers suggest this could be the moment Villa’s remarkable run finally ends, but form, confidence, and momentum all point in the opposite direction.
If Aston Villa are to be stopped, Stamford Bridge might need to produce something special. If not, Emery’s side could walk away with history still firmly within reach.
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