The 2026 FIFA World Cup begins on Thursday with co-hosts Mexico national football team facing South Africa national football team at the Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.
The Opta supercomputer’s pre-match simulations give Mexico a clear advantage, with the hosts winning 66.3% of 10,000 simulated outcomes. South Africa came out on top in 14.3% of simulations, while the draw appeared in 19.4%.
Key insights from Opta
- Mexico are unbeaten in their last seven opening matches at a men’s World Cup
- None of South Africa’s nine games in the men’s FIFA World Cup have ended goalless
- The Opta supercomputer predicts Mexico to win 66.3% of simulations
- South Africa win 14.3% of simulations
- Draw occurs in 19.4% of simulations
Tournament context
This tournament is the first FIFA World Cup hosted by three countries, with Mexico, the United States and Canada sharing hosting duties. It is also the first expanded 48-team edition, featuring 104 matches.
The opening match will be played at the historic Estadio Azteca, which will host its 20th World Cup match, more than any other stadium in history.
Javier Aguirre leads Mexico into the competition, with his side unbeaten in their seven World Cup matches at this venue (W5 D2). Mexico have also not lost an opening World Cup match since 1994, going seven games unbeaten in openers since then (W5 D2).
Mexico are playing in their 18th World Cup, the most for any CONCACAF nation, but they are also the nation with the most matches played (60) without ever winning the trophy. Their best results came when hosting in 1970 and 1986, both times reaching the quarter-finals.
Aguirre is managing Mexico at a World Cup for the third time, after 2002 and 2010, making him one of only a few coaches to lead a nation at multiple tournaments. He also played in the 1986 World Cup, starting all five matches and assisting Manuel Negrete’s famous goal against Bulgaria before being sent off in the quarter-final loss to West Germany.
Players and form
Raúl Jiménez is expected to lead the attack after scoring in Mexico’s 5-1 win over Serbia in their final warm-up match.
South Africa, coached by Hugo Broos, will look to attacking midfielder Oswin Appollis, who contributed six goal involvements in qualification (two goals and four assists). He was directly involved in twice as many goals as any other South African player during qualifying.
South Africa finished top of their qualifying group in CAF competition. They trailed in only one qualifier, a 2-0 loss to Rwanda in November 2023, excluding a 3-0 forfeit defeat to Lesotho for fielding an ineligible player.
They are returning to the World Cup for the first time since 2002 and have never progressed beyond the group stage.
Historical meeting
This is the second time these teams meet in a World Cup opener. In 2010, South Africa and Mexico drew 1-1 in the tournament’s first match, with Siphiwe Tshabalala scoring first before Rafael Márquez equalised.
It also remains the only World Cup opener that has ever been repeated from the 19 previous single-match opening fixtures.
Final prediction data
- Mexico win: 66.3% of simulations
- South Africa win: 14.3%
- Draw: 19.4%
Mexico are strong favourites, but South Africa’s record of never playing a goalless World Cup match suggests goals could still come at both ends.
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