Arsenal return to Champions League action on Tuesday with Lille visiting the Emirates Stadium, and Mikel Arteta’s side will be expected to take another step towards the knockout stages. The Gunners are strong favourites according to Opta’s supercomputer, which gives them a 71 per cent chance of winning, while Lille have an 11.4 per cent probability of leaving London with all three points.

Arsenal’s ambitions in Europe remain clear after they came agonisingly close to reaching the summit last season, only to fall short against Paris Saint Germain. Their latest campaign began positively with a 1 to 0 victory away to Napoli, Martin Ødegaard scoring the decisive goal in the 75th minute.

That result reflected Arsenal’s ability to remain patient and find a breakthrough against difficult opposition. Their winning goal also followed a sequence of 29 passes, the longest build up leading to a goal during the opening round of this season’s Champions League.

The Gunners have looked strong overall this season, suffering just one defeat across all competitions before the international break. Their 3 to 0 loss to Brighton was a significant setback, but they responded on Saturday by coming from behind to defeat Leeds United 2 to 1 at the Emirates. James Justin gave Leeds the lead before Riccardo Calafiori and Bruno Guimarães completed the comeback.

That response should provide encouragement as Arsenal turn their attention back to Europe. They have developed into one of the competition’s most reliable defensive sides, with their numbers since the beginning of the 2025 to 26 season placing them among the best teams in the tournament.

Among clubs to have featured in both of the last two Champions League campaigns, Arsenal have conceded an average of just 0.44 goals per game. They also lead the way for expected goals against, at 0.86 per match, and shots on target conceded, at 2.9. Their clean sheet rate stands at 63 per cent, with 10 shutouts recorded across 16 matches.

Those figures underline the defensive structure Arteta has built. Arsenal can control possession, limit the number of clear opportunities opponents create and remain dangerous when they move forward. Lille will need to be exceptionally efficient if they are to disrupt that pattern in north London.

The visitors arrive with a respectable domestic record of their own. Under Davide Ancelotti, son of the highly decorated Carlo Ancelotti, Lille have collected four wins, one draw and one defeat from their first six Ligue 1 fixtures. That return has kept them within a point of early leaders Monaco and suggests they should not be dismissed despite their status as outsiders.

Their European campaign, however, began in disappointing fashion. Lille lost 3 to 2 to Real Betis in an entertaining contest, with Troy Parrott scoring the winning goal shortly before Ethan Mbappé was sent off. Mbappé will be unavailable for the Arsenal match through suspension and would also have missed out because of an ankle injury.

Lille’s away record in the Champions League is another concern. They have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 12 away matches in the competition, conceding 22 goals during that run. Their most recent away shutout came in a 2 to 0 victory over BATE Borisov in November 2012. Facing an Arsenal side with considerable attacking quality, that weakness could prove decisive.

The fixture will also carry personal significance for Olivier Giroud. The former Arsenal striker spent five and a half years with the club before joining Chelsea in January 2018. Now 40, he could face his former team in what would be a notable reunion.

Giroud has the opportunity to join a small group of players who have scored for and against Arsenal in the Champions League. Only Tomás Rosicky and Eduardo da Silva have achieved that feat so far. Whether the veteran forward can add his name to that list remains to be seen, but his experience could be valuable for Lille.

Arsenal have never faced Lille in European competition, although they have considerable experience against French opposition. Their recent record in the Champions League has been mixed, with no victory in their last three matches against French clubs. All three came against Paris Saint Germain during the knockout stages of the previous two campaigns, with the French champions going on to win the tournament on both occasions.

Despite that recent sequence, Arsenal’s record at home against French teams during the league or group phase is encouraging. They are unbeaten in their last seven such matches, recording five wins and two draws. Auxerre were the last French side to win at Arsenal in this stage of the competition, claiming a 2 to 1 victory in October 2002.

Arsenal have won all three of their comparable home matches against French opposition during Arteta’s tenure, scoring 11 goals without conceding. That record will strengthen their belief that the Emirates can once again provide the platform for a convincing European performance.

Lille face a more difficult historical challenge. They have lost their last seven Champions League meetings with English clubs, with their most recent victory coming against Manchester United in November 2005. Six of those seven defeats were by a single goal, suggesting they have often remained competitive even when the final result has gone against them.

Arsenal will nevertheless have to manage several absences. William Saliba remains sidelined with a back problem, while winger Christos Tzolis is unavailable because of a thigh injury. Lille will also be without former Rangers striker Hamza Igamane, who is dealing with a knee injury, in addition to the suspended Mbappé.

Arteta is expected to have David Raya in goal, with Ben White, Ezri Konsa, Gabriel Magalhães and Piero Hincapié forming the defensive line. Declan Rice and Myles Lewis Skelly could operate in midfield, while Bukayo Saka, Martin Ødegaard and Eberechi Eze are expected to support Viktor Gyökeres in attack.

Lille are projected to start Berke Özer between the posts, behind Tiago Santos, Nathan Ngoy, Alexsandro and Romain Perraud. Benjamin André and Nabil Bentaleb could anchor the midfield, with Dorgeles Bakwa, Hákon Haraldsson and Başar Önal supporting Ayase Ueda.

The supercomputer’s forecast points towards an Arsenal victory, assigning the Gunners a 71 per cent chance of winning. Lille are given an 11.4 per cent probability, while the draw is also rated at 11.4 per cent.

Arsenal have the stronger squad, the more convincing European defensive record and a formidable home record against French opposition in this phase of the competition. Lille’s attacking potential means they should not be underestimated, but their struggles to keep clean sheets away from home leave them vulnerable against a side capable of creating sustained pressure.

If Arsenal reproduce the discipline they showed against Napoli and build on their recovery against Leeds, they should have enough quality to secure another Champions League victory. The challenge is to turn their statistical advantage into a controlled performance and avoid giving Lille the opportunities they need to make the contest uncomfortable.