Manchester United face a difficult Champions League test on Tuesday when they travel to the Estadio Metropolitano to take on Atlético Madrid. The hosts arrive with growing confidence after a strong run in La Liga, while United are struggling to find consistency under Michael Carrick. Opta’s supercomputer gives Atlético a 46 per cent chance of winning, compared with 29.7 per cent for the visitors, leaving the draw at 24.3 per cent.

For Diego Simeone, the immediate objective is to secure Atlético’s first points of this season’s Champions League campaign. Their European journey began with a defeat to Liverpool, but their domestic performances since then have offered plenty of encouragement. Four consecutive league victories have lifted the Madrid club to second place, just behind reigning champions Barcelona.

Atlético also have a strong record at home in Europe. They won five of their eight home matches in last season’s Champions League, scoring 22 goals along the way. Their attacking output has remained impressive, although defensive solidity has not always matched their reputation under Simeone. Since the beginning of 2024, they have conceded in 14 of their 15 home matches in the competition, with a 1 to 0 victory over Real Madrid in March 2025 their only clean sheet during that period.

That represents a notable change for a side once renowned for shutting opponents out. Atlético had recorded 31 clean sheets in their first 49 Champions League matches at the Metropolitano under Simeone, a rate of 63 per cent. Their more recent approach has produced attacking rewards, but it has also left them vulnerable at the back.

The expanded Champions League format has brought Atlético into frequent contact with English opposition. Five of their last seven European matches have been against Premier League sides, yet they have managed only one victory in that sequence. Their 2 to 1 defeat at Liverpool last month underlined the difficulties they can face against teams capable of applying pressure and exploiting space.

Simeone will now come up against a very different personality in Carrick. The Manchester United manager is preparing for his first Champions League away match in charge, with the challenge of translating his side’s European promise into more convincing performances across the season.

United opened their campaign with an emphatic 4 to 0 win over Sabah at Old Trafford. A victory in Madrid would give them consecutive wins at the start of a Champions League campaign for only the third time since Sir Alex Ferguson left the club. Their domestic form, however, offers little reassurance.

United have collected just six points from their first six Premier League matches, their poorest start to a league season since 1986, when they managed only four points over the same period. Their latest disappointment came on Saturday, when Tottenham scored a stoppage time equaliser to claim a 1 to 1 draw at Old Trafford.

Bryan Mbeumo had put United ahead, but the home side failed to protect their advantage despite Tottenham having Rodrigo Bentancur sent off. United’s inability to take control against reduced opposition has become a worrying pattern, following similar struggles against Everton and Manchester City. Their expected goals figure of just 0.77 against Spurs reflected a performance that offered little attacking threat.

Carrick is consequently under increasing pressure to find solutions. United have won only two of their eight matches in all competitions, against promoted Ipswich Town and Champions League newcomers Sabah. A trip to Atlético is a considerably tougher assignment, particularly for a team still searching for a reliable identity.

The absence of Benjamin Šeško is another significant concern. The striker has been troubled by injuries, but his European record demonstrates the threat he can offer, with five goals in his last seven Champions League starts. He also scored at the Metropolitano while playing for RB Leipzig two years ago.

With Šeško unavailable, Matheus Cunha could lead the line against his former club. The Brazilian made 54 appearances for Atlético between 2021 and 2023, scoring seven goals. His familiarity with Simeone’s methods and the stadium could be useful, although United will need more than individual quality to overcome their current problems.

Atlético, meanwhile, possess a dangerous attacking option in Julián Alvarez. The Argentine has endured a challenging period at times this season, but his European record remains impressive. He has scored 17 goals in 26 Champions League appearances for Atlético, including 10 in 13 matches on home soil.

Alvarez will be competing for a starting place alongside Jonathan David and Alexander Sørloth. David featured in Saturday’s 2 to 1 league victory over Alavés, but Alvarez’s experience and scoring record make him a major threat regardless of Simeone’s selection. His previous spell at Manchester City also means he is familiar with the demands of English football.

The head to head record provides another intriguing dimension. United have lost only once in their last 11 matches against Spanish opponents, winning seven and drawing three. Atlético, however, remain an exception to that broader success, with United yet to win any of their four competitive meetings. The Spanish side have recorded two victories and two draws.

Their most recent competitive encounter came in the Champions League round of 16 in March 2022. The first leg ended 1 to 1 in Madrid before Renan Lodi scored the decisive goal in Atlético’s 1 to 0 victory at Old Trafford. United have since beaten Atlético 2 to 1 in a friendly in August, with Mbeumo scoring twice to overturn an early goal from Arnau Ortiz, but that result carries limited weight ahead of a competitive European fixture.

Atlético’s record against English clubs is less convincing than their overall European standing might suggest. They have won just two of their last 15 matches against Premier League opposition, drawing three and losing 10. Yet their history against United remains a source of confidence, and the home crowd could play an important role in a match between two sides under pressure to deliver.

Opta’s forecast reflects the balance between Atlético’s home advantage and United’s potential to cause an upset. The Spanish club won 46 per cent of the supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations, while United came out on top in 29.7 per cent. The remaining 24.3 per cent ended in a draw.

Atlético are expected to start with Jan Oblak in goal, protected by Marcos Llorente, Cristian Romero, Dávid Hancko and Alejandro Grimaldo. Koke, Johnny Cardoso and Pablo Barrios could form the midfield, with Álex Baena and Lee Kang in supporting Jonathan David in attack.

United’s predicted lineup features Senne Lammens in goal, with Diogo Dalot, Leny Yoro, Lisandro Martínez and Luke Shaw in defence. Youri Tielemans and Kobbie Mainoo are expected to operate in midfield, while Mbeumo, Bruno Fernandes and Marcus Rashford could support Cunha up front.

The match presents Atlético with an opportunity to turn their strong domestic form into European progress. Their defensive vulnerabilities mean United should have opportunities, but Carrick’s side must improve their attacking output and show greater discipline if they are to take advantage.

For United, a positive result would offer much needed relief after an uneven start to the campaign. For Atlético, victory would provide an important response to their opening European defeat and reinforce their status as a difficult opponent on home soil. The supercomputer favours Simeone’s side, and unless United produce a markedly improved performance, the visitors could leave Madrid still waiting for their first competitive victory against Atlético.