Arsenal are once again aiming to end their 21-year wait for a Premier League title, but the path ahead looks rough from the very beginning. The 2025-26 fixture list has not been kind to Mikel Arteta’s men, with a brutal opening five games that could shape the rest of their campaign.
Based on Opta Power Rankings, only Manchester United have a more difficult start to the season. Arsenal begin their journey at Old Trafford, then face Liverpool and Manchester City. Their other two early matches, home fixtures against Leeds and Nottingham Forest, are no walk in the park either.
And it doesn’t ease up after that. Matchday six sends Arsenal to St. James’ Park to take on Newcastle, a ground where they have struggled in recent seasons. While the next four games are rated slightly easier than the first five, they still form the eighth toughest opening ten-game stretch across the league.
It’s unlikely Arsenal will hit the ground running. Clubs like Chelsea and Manchester City, who have far more favourable starts, could take early control of the title race. That leaves Arsenal potentially playing catch-up once again, just like they did last season.
In 2024-25, they navigated a tough opening quite well by avoiding defeat in their first five games. But draws against Brighton and City meant they only picked up 11 points. They were already in fourth place, trailing Liverpool by a single point. That one-point gap turned into a mountain by the end of the season.
Data from previous seasons paints a clear picture. Of the 88 teams in Premier League history who collected at least 11 points from their first five games, only 21 went on to win the title. When you narrow that to teams that got exactly 11 points, only four won it all. That’s just a 19 percent success rate.
The trend continues when looking at the first ten games. Last season, Arsenal had 18 points after ten matches and were already seven points behind Liverpool. Historically, only three teams have gone on to win the league after such a slow start. Those teams had to deliver incredible winning streaks later in the season to compensate.
In 1992-93 and 2002-03, Manchester United needed long unbeaten runs to make up ground. In 2020-21, Manchester City strung together 15 consecutive victories between December and March. That is the kind of relentless form Arsenal would need if they falter early again.
Of course, starting strong does not guarantee success. Arsenal know this too well. In 2022-23, they set a club record with 50 points from their first 19 games, only to fall short in the title race. But history shows that title winners usually build momentum early.
If Arsenal are serious about finally lifting the trophy in 2026, they must turn this tough start into a springboard rather than a stumbling block. Every point will count from day one.
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