Arsenal arrive in Prague on Tuesday night as overwhelming favourites according to the Opta supercomputer, which has given Mikel Arteta’s side a dominant 70 percent win probability for this UEFA Champions League fixture. Slavia Prague are rated at just under 12 percent, showing just how wide the gap in expectation is ahead of kickoff at the Fortuna Arena.
Arsenal’s current rhythm is frightening. The Gunners have won nine consecutive matches in all competitions following their comfortable Premier League victory over Burnley at the weekend, with Viktor Gyokeres and Declan Rice settling the contest before halftime. Arteta’s team have also begun this Champions League campaign with a defensive standard that very few have been able to match. They are one of only two teams in the entire competition who have won all of their opening three matches without conceding a goal, the other being Inter.
Their defensive numbers underline elite control. Only Bayern Munich have faced fewer expected goals against in the Champions League this season than Arsenal. Arteta’s men have also faced the joint fewest shots on target with only six attempts registered against them so far.
Historically, Arsenal’s record against Czech opposition speaks loudly as well. They are unbeaten in ten previous meetings against teams from Czechia with eight wins, and they have scored a stunning 27 goals in those games while conceding just three and recording eight clean sheets. Arteta’s personal Champions League record adds even greater weight to the prediction picture, with the Spaniard winning 63 percent of his matches in the competition as Arsenal manager. Among all managers with at least twenty Champions League matches at a single club, no English club boss has posted a better return.
Slavia Prague are fully aware of the size of this task. They have not won a Champions League match since 2007 and are currently on a run of fourteen games without victory in the competition. Their attacking output has also been one of the lowest in the current tournament cycle. They produced just 0.84 expected goals combined across matchdays two and three which was the lowest of any team.
Gabriel Martinelli has been Arsenal’s leading European scorer so far this season with goals in all three group matches although his participation remains in doubt after missing the last two domestic games. Arteta is also monitoring Viktor Gyokeres and Martin Zubimendi who were both withdrawn against Burnley. Slavia remain without Petr Sevcik, Igoh Ogbu and Tomas Holes.
Head to Head
Slavia Prague have not defeated Arsenal in any of their four previous meetings. They have also only managed one win from eight home matches against English clubs in European competition.
Prediction
Based on form, historical data, performance metrics and predictive modelling, everything stands tilted heavily toward Arsenal. The Opta supercomputer ran ten thousand simulations of this fixture and Arsenal came out victorious in seventy one percent of them. Slavia Prague were given only an eleven percent chance, with seventeen point nine percent for a draw.
Arsenal are currently fourth in the league phase table but projections expect them to finish first overall by the end of the round. They also carry the highest Champions League title probability in the current model at just above twenty two percent.
This fixture represents another major step for Arteta’s side to confirm their place among the elite this season. If Slavia Prague cannot find a way past this outstanding Arsenal defensive machine, the Gunners could move one step closer to becoming a genuine favourite to lift the trophy.
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