Paris Saint Germain enter Saturday’s Champions League final in Budapest as favourites, and understandably so. Luis Enrique’s side are defending champions, possess one of Europe’s most devastating attacks, and have developed a habit of dismantling elite opposition.
But despite their dominance, PSG are not untouchable. Arsenal have already shown throughout this season that they are capable of matching the continent’s best, and if Mikel Arteta’s men are to complete a historic campaign, there are clear areas they can exploit.
The stakes could not be higher for Arsenal. Victory would secure the club’s first ever Champions League title, making them the 25th different winners of Europe’s premier competition. Having already clinched the Premier League crown, they would also become only the fourth English side to achieve the domestic and European double in the same season.
Standing in their way, however, is arguably the most dangerous team in world football right now.
PSG demolished Inter 5 0 in last season’s final and have since eliminated Monaco, Chelsea, Liverpool, and Bayern Munich on their route back to another final. They have also beaten English opposition in each of their last five knockout ties.
Their ability to overwhelm top sides is undeniable. Bayern Munich, who were ranked first in the Opta Power Rankings before PSG eliminated them, could not cope over two legs. Arsenal now occupy that top ranking after overtaking Bayern last week, but that alone guarantees nothing.
To dethrone PSG, Arsenal will likely need the finest performance of the Arteta era.
Arsenal Cannot Rely Solely on Defence
The instinctive assumption is that Arsenal’s path to victory depends on defensive perfection. Given PSG’s terrifying front three of Ousmane Dembélé, Désiré Doué, and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, that logic is understandable.
Arsenal have made a habit of grinding out narrow victories this season. Across Europe’s top five leagues, no side has won more matches in all competitions by a 1 0 scoreline than Arsenal, who have done so 11 times.
Yet keeping PSG scoreless has proven almost impossible.
The French champions need just one more Champions League goal to equal Barcelona’s all time record of 45 goals in a single campaign, set in 1999 00. Across all competitions, PSG have scored in each of their last 27 matches, producing 62 goals during that stretch, an average of 2.24 per game.
And this scoring spree has not come solely against weaker opposition. PSG scored four goals across two legs against Liverpool, put five and then three past Chelsea, and also scored five against Bayern Munich.
Inter attempted to frustrate them in last year’s final and were dismantled anyway.
That reality means Arsenal probably cannot approach this final with a purely reactive mindset. At some stage, they are likely going to have to attack aggressively.
Pressing PSG May Be Arsenal’s Best Weapon
One encouraging sign for Arsenal supporters is that PSG remain vulnerable when attempting to play out from the back.
Arteta’s side showed exactly how dangerous their high press can be during their victory at the Etihad Stadium last month. Arsenal applied 474 pressures against Manchester City, their highest total in any Premier League match this season. Kai Havertz’s relentless pressing directly led to the game’s only goal.
PSG’s build up structure, despite its technical quality, has shown cracks all season.
No side in the Champions League has committed more errors leading directly to opposition shots than PSG’s total of 26, a figure they share with another team. They have also made the joint most mistakes leading to goals, with six.
Even accounting for the fact PSG have played more games than many clubs, the numbers remain concerning. On a per game basis, they rank fourth worst for errors leading to shots at 1.63 per match and ninth worst for errors leading to goals at 0.38.
Their possession play near their own goal can become especially risky.
Only two Champions League teams have lost possession within 40 metres of their own goal more frequently than PSG, who have done so 141 times this season, an average of 8.8 per game.
That becomes even more revealing when compared to fellow elite sides. Bayern average just 4.0 such turnovers per game, Arsenal 4.4, Liverpool 5.0, and Manchester City 5.4. All four rank among the competition’s five best teams in protecting the ball in dangerous areas.
PSG, by contrast, sit much closer to the wrong end of the rankings.
Only two Champions League clubs have conceded more goals following high turnovers than PSG’s total of four. Their average of 0.25 such goals conceded per game ranks among the tournament’s seven weakest records, alongside PSV, Spurs, Bodø/Glimt, Juventus, Chelsea, and Copenhagen.
Tottenham demonstrated exactly how PSG can be hurt when they won possession high up the pitch during their chaotic 5 3 defeat in Paris earlier this season.
That should encourage Arsenal to hunt aggressively from the first whistle.
Set Pieces Could Still Be Crucial
Arsenal’s threat from dead ball situations has become one of the defining features of Arteta’s side, and PSG are not entirely convincing when defending them.
In Ligue 1 this season, only five clubs conceded a greater percentage of goals from set pieces than PSG’s 20.7%.
While Arsenal cannot expect a flood of corners and free kicks, every opportunity could matter in a final likely to feature fine margins.
Still, there may be an even more dangerous avenue available.
PSG’s Right Side Looks Vulnerable
Achraf Hakimi remains one of football’s most explosive attacking full backs, but his constant forward movement often leaves enormous gaps behind him.
That weakness has repeatedly been exposed in Europe this season.
Among all 36 Champions League teams, only PSV and Chelsea allowed opponents to create a higher percentage of chances down their right flank than PSG, whose figure stands at 37.3%.
Several opponents have already punished them in this exact area.
Tottenham scored after attacking down PSG’s right side and delivering across the six yard box. Chelsea found success there too through Pedro Neto. Bayern’s Luis Díaz also exploited the same channel in the semi final, sprinting into the space Hakimi had vacated before finishing past Gianluigi Donnarumma.
That tactical pattern may heavily influence Arteta’s selection choices.
Leandro Trossard has started most of Arsenal’s important recent matches on the left wing, but Gabriel Martinelli’s pace and direct running could be far more effective in attacking the open spaces left behind Hakimi.
Arsenal may need vertical speed rather than control in that area.
Arsenal Must Deliver the Perfect Final
There is no escaping the scale of Arsenal’s challenge.
PSG are chasing consecutive Champions League titles and arrive with the confidence of a side that has already conquered Europe. Arsenal, meanwhile, have lost each of their previous four major European finals.
But this Arsenal team are not outsiders without hope.
They sit top of the Opta Power Rankings, possess one of the best defensive structures in Europe, and have already shown this season they can suffocate elite opponents with intensity and organisation.
If they press courageously, attack the spaces behind Hakimi, and capitalise on PSG’s occasional sloppiness in possession, the opportunity is there.
The margins will be microscopic, and Arsenal will almost certainly need to suffer for long stretches.
But PSG’s weaknesses are real.
And Arsenal have enough quality to punish them.
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