England will look to make a strong start to their 2026 FIFA World Cup campaign when they face Croatia in their Group L opener at Dallas Stadium. On paper, the Three Lions enter the contest as favourites, but World Cup history suggests this fixture may not be as straightforward as it appears. Croatia have built a reputation as one of international football’s most resilient tournament teams, and memories of their dramatic victory over England in the 2018 World Cup semi-final remain fresh.

The Opta supercomputer gives England a 55.9% chance of victory from 10,000 pre-match simulations, compared to Croatia’s 20.8%, while draws account for the remaining 23.3%. Those numbers reflect England’s impressive form heading into the tournament. Under Thomas Tuchel, they became one of only two UEFA nations, alongside Norway, to win all eight of their World Cup qualifying matches. More remarkably, England were the only side to progress through qualifying without conceding a single goal.

Wednesday’s match marks England’s 17th World Cup appearance and their eighth consecutive participation in the tournament, their longest uninterrupted run since missing out in 1994. Expectations are understandably high. The Opta supercomputer gives England a 29.1% chance of reaching the semi-finals, placing them among the leading contenders to challenge for the trophy. Yet history serves as a reminder that qualifying dominance does not always translate into World Cup success. Since lifting the trophy in 1966, England have progressed beyond the quarter-finals only twice, finishing fourth in both 1990 and 2018.

One statistic that may encourage England supporters is their strong record in tournament openers. The Three Lions have lost just one of their last eight opening World Cup matches, a 2-1 defeat to Italy in 2014, while winning four and drawing three of the others. Tuchel will hope that trend continues as his side seeks to establish early control of Group L.

Much of England’s hopes will once again rest on Harry Kane. The captain remains one of the most reliable goalscorers in international football and enters the tournament with eight World Cup goals across the last two editions. Only Kylian Mbappé, with 12, has scored more during that period. Kane is also set to make his 30th appearance at a major international tournament, more than any other player in England’s history. Surrounded by talents such as Jude Bellingham, Bukayo Saka, Declan Rice and Eberechi Eze, England possess the creativity and attacking depth to trouble any defence in the competition.

Croatia, however, arrive in the United States with plenty of reasons to believe they can upset the odds. While they have often alternated between group-stage exits and deep tournament runs, their record at recent World Cups commands respect. Across the last two editions, Croatia have reached the semi-finals on both occasions, making them one of only two nations alongside France to achieve that feat. Their remarkable consistency under Zlatko Dalić has transformed them from dark horses into one of football’s most dependable tournament performers.

Although the Opta supercomputer gives Croatia only an 8.9% chance of reaching the semi-finals this year, they enter the competition in strong form. Dalić’s side won seven of their eight qualifying matches and remained unbeaten throughout the campaign, dropping points only in a goalless draw away to Czechia. They have also been extremely difficult to break down at World Cups, going unbeaten in their last six group-stage matches while conceding only two goals during that stretch.

Croatia’s experience remains one of their greatest strengths. Luka Modrić continues to defy age and expectations as the heartbeat of the team, while Ivan Perišić remains a proven performer on the biggest stages. No Croatian player has been directly involved in more goals at major tournaments than Perišić, who has contributed 10 goals and eight assists. He is also one of only three players, alongside Lionel Messi and Neymar, to have both scored and assisted at each of the last three World Cups.

The head-to-head record adds another intriguing layer to this matchup. The most famous meeting between the sides came in the semi-finals of the 2018 World Cup, when England took an early lead through Kieran Trippier before Croatia fought back. Goals from Perišić and Mario Mandžukić secured a 2-1 extra-time victory that sent Croatia to their first-ever World Cup final. Since then, the nations have also met twice at the European Championship, with England winning both encounters.

The midfield battle is likely to determine the outcome. England’s blend of energy, athleticism and technical quality, led by Bellingham and Rice, will be tested by the experience and intelligence of Modrić and Mateo Kovačić. If England can impose their tempo and create space for Kane and Saka in the final third, they should generate enough opportunities to win the game. Croatia, meanwhile, will aim to slow the pace, stay organised and rely on their tournament experience to frustrate England.

Ultimately, England appear stronger across most areas of the pitch. Their flawless qualifying campaign, defensive record and attacking firepower justify their status as favourites. Croatia remain dangerous opponents capable of producing big performances on football’s biggest stage, but England’s superior squad depth and current form give them the edge.

The Opta supercomputer agrees. England won 55.9% of pre-match simulations compared to Croatia’s 20.8%, underlining the belief that the Three Lions are more likely to begin their World Cup campaign with three points. However, given Croatia’s tournament pedigree and England’s history of making life difficult for themselves, few would be surprised if the contest proves much tighter than the probabilities suggest.

Prediction: England 2-1 Croatia.