France begin their latest quest for World Cup glory against Senegal in what promises to be one of the most intriguing opening fixtures of the tournament. Didier Deschamps’ side arrive in the United States carrying the weight of expectation once again after reaching two of the last three World Cup finals, winning the competition in 2018 before finishing runners-up to Argentina in a dramatic final four years later. Now, Les Bleus are chasing a place in history. A third consecutive World Cup final would make them only the third nation ever to achieve that feat, joining West Germany (1982-1990) and Brazil (1994-2002).

France’s recent World Cup pedigree is unmatched in the modern era. They have reached four of the last seven finals, twice as many as any other nation during that period, and continue to boast one of the deepest and most talented squads in international football. Central to those ambitions is Kylian Mbappé, whose performances on the biggest stage have already secured his place among the game’s great World Cup players. The Real Madrid superstar has scored 12 goals across the last two tournaments, more than any other player, equalling Pelé’s career World Cup tally and moving within four goals of Miroslav Klose’s all-time record of 16. His hat-trick in the 2022 final against Argentina made him only the second player after Geoff Hurst in 1966 to score three goals in a World Cup final.

Tuesday’s match will also represent another milestone for Deschamps. The France manager is set to oversee his 20th World Cup game in charge of Les Bleus, a figure surpassed by only Helmut Schön’s 25 matches with West Germany. Deschamps remains one of only three men, alongside Mário Zagallo and Franz Beckenbauer, to have won the World Cup both as a player and as a coach, underlining the extraordinary legacy he has built with the national team.

Yet despite France’s status as one of the tournament favourites, Senegal are uniquely positioned to believe they can cause problems. Few French supporters need reminding of what happened when these nations last met at a World Cup. In the opening game of the 2002 tournament, Senegal stunned the defending champions 1-0 in one of the greatest upsets in World Cup history. Papa Bouba Diop’s goal secured a famous victory and helped launch Senegal on an unforgettable run to the quarter-finals in their first-ever World Cup appearance.

That victory remains one of the defining moments in Senegalese football history, but the Lions of Teranga are no longer newcomers. This is their fourth World Cup appearance and their third consecutive qualification, matching the longest active World Cup streak among African nations alongside Morocco and Tunisia. Senegal topped their qualifying group ahead of DR Congo without suffering a single defeat and arrive with a squad blending experience and athleticism.

Much of Senegal’s attacking threat continues to revolve around Sadio Mané. The nation’s all-time leading goalscorer netted five times during qualifying and remains the team’s most dangerous player despite now being 34 years old. Alongside Nicolas Jackson, Ismaïla Sarr and Iliman Ndiaye, Senegal possess enough pace and quality in transition to trouble even the strongest defences.

However, defensive concerns remain. Remarkably, Senegal have kept just one clean sheet in 12 World Cup matches, and that shutout came in their famous victory over France in 2002. They have conceded in each of their subsequent 11 World Cup games, a statistic that could prove costly against a French attack featuring Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé, Michael Olise, Bradley Barcola and Marcus Thuram.

History also offers a warning for France. Three of their last four World Cup group-stage matches against African opposition have ended in defeat. Following the loss to Senegal in 2002, they were beaten 2-1 by South Africa in 2010 and 1-0 by Tunisia in 2022. The only exception came in a 2-0 victory over Togo during the 2006 tournament. Those results suggest France have occasionally struggled against African teams capable of matching their physical intensity and defensive organisation.

Nevertheless, the gap in quality between the squads remains significant. France enter the tournament ranked third in the FIFA World Rankings, while Senegal sit 16th. The Opta supercomputer reflects that difference, giving France a 65.6% chance of victory compared to Senegal’s 14.9%, with draws accounting for 19.5% of simulations. Looking beyond this match, France are considered a 60.3% favourite to top Group I, have a 95.3% probability of reaching the knockout stages, and are viewed as the second-most likely team to win the tournament behind Spain, with a 13.4% chance of lifting the trophy.

Senegal’s prospects are more modest but still encouraging. They have a 10.1% probability of winning the group and a 60.4% chance of progressing to the knockout rounds, highlighting their status as one of the strongest African contenders in the competition.

Ultimately, France possess too much attacking talent, experience and tournament know-how to ignore. Senegal are disciplined, dangerous on the counterattack and motivated by memories of their historic victory 24 years ago, but this French squad appears significantly stronger and more balanced than the side that stumbled in 2002. If Mbappé and company perform anywhere near their best level, Les Bleus should have enough quality to begin their World Cup campaign with three points.

Prediction: France 3-1 Senegal.