England will be expected to book their place in the FIFA World Cup last 16 when they face tournament debutants DR Congo in the Round of 32 at Atlanta Stadium on Wednesday. On paper, the Three Lions are overwhelming favourites, but the Congolese will believe they can produce one of the biggest upsets of the tournament.

According to the Opta supercomputer, which ran 25,000 pre-match simulations, England have a 73.9% chance of winning the match inside 90 minutes. DR Congo emerged victorious in just 11.3% of those simulations, while the remaining 14.8% ended in a draw, meaning extra time would be required. Overall, England are given an 82.0% probability of progressing to the Round of 16, compared to 18.0% for DR Congo.

Thomas Tuchel’s side secured top spot in Group L with a 2-0 victory over Panama on Saturday, although the scoreline did not reflect the struggle they endured for much of the contest. England laboured for more than an hour before Jude Bellingham finally broke the deadlock with an improvised finish from a corner. Five minutes later, Harry Kane doubled the lead, taking his tally to 11 World Cup goals and becoming England’s all-time leading men’s scorer at the tournament.

Despite finishing top of their group, England have done little to silence concerns over their performances. Their uninspiring goalless draw with Ghana frustrated supporters, particularly as they dominated possession with 78.9%, the highest share of the ball recorded by any team in a match during the group stage without managing to win.

That game offered a glimpse of the challenge DR Congo will hope to present. Sébastien Desabre’s side are unlikely to dominate possession, having ranked 38th among all teams with an average of just 38.5% during the group stage. England, by contrast, ranked third, averaging 65.3%. Instead, DR Congo will look to frustrate Tuchel’s side before striking quickly on the counter.

Even if England have yet to convince with their performances, the results remain impressive. The Three Lions are unbeaten in 11 competitive matches under Tuchel, winning 10 and drawing one. Only Ron Greenwood, who went 16 competitive matches unbeaten between 1977 and 1980, and Roy Hodggson, who managed a 14-match unbeaten start between 2012 and 2013, have enjoyed longer undefeated starts as England manager.

Tuchel, however, is refusing to look beyond the immediate task despite suggestions that a potential meeting with co-hosts Mexico could await in the next round.

“If we get carried away and start talking and thinking about a possible round of 16, we will just get punished,” Tuchel said.

“There is only one match in four days. It’s not Mexico, it’s not in Mexico, it’s in Atlanta, and we need to be ready for that.”

DR Congo arrive full of belief after making history by reaching the knockout stage for the first time. Their campaign looked to be ending during the final group match against Uzbekistan, where they trailed for almost an hour. However, Yoane Wissa equalised from the penalty spot before Fiston Mayele put them ahead and Wissa added his second to seal a memorable 3-1 comeback victory.

Wissa has been the driving force behind DR Congo’s campaign. His three goals account for three of the nation’s four strikes at the tournament, matching the total he scored across the entire 2025-26 season for Newcastle United. While he averaged one goal every 301 minutes in club football, he has found the net every 90 minutes at this World Cup.

His performances have helped DR Congo reach the knockout rounds for the first time, but history is not on their side. This will be the 11th occasion an African nation has faced a former World Cup winner in the knockout stages. Only Morocco have progressed from such a tie, defeating Spain on penalties in the Round of 16 at the 2022 World Cup.

Desabre now faces an important selection decision. Veteran striker Cédric Bakambu started against Uzbekistan before making way for Mayele, whose impact from the bench may have earned him a place in the starting XI.

England, meanwhile, will once again look to Harry Kane for inspiration. The captain’s three group-stage goals made him England’s leading scorer at men’s World Cups. Another goal against DR Congo would take him level with Geoff Hurst on four knockout-stage World Cup goals for England. Only Gary Lineker, with six, has scored more for the Three Lions in knockout matches at the tournament.

Declan Rice is expected to return after sitting out the Panama victory with a minor calf problem, although Elliot Anderson has continued to strengthen his case for a regular starting place. The midfielder has quietly been one of England’s standout performers, leading the squad for line-breaking passes (30), possession won (20) and duels won (24). Ecuador’s Pedro Vite is the only other player to record at least 20 in each of those categories during the group stage.

England could still be short of options in defence. Jarell Quansah is expected to miss out after sustaining an ankle injury against Panama, while Reece James remains unavailable until the latter stages of the tournament. That may force Tuchel to use either Djed Spence or Ezri Konsa at right-back.

Wednesday’s meeting will be the first ever encounter between England and DR Congo.

Following the group-stage draw with Ghana, it will also be only the second time England have faced two African nations at the same World Cup. The first came in 1990, when Bobby Robson’s side defeated Egypt 1-0 in the group stage before overcoming Cameroon 3-2 after extra time in the quarter-finals.

England’s only previous knockout meeting with African opposition in the modern era came at the 2022 World Cup, when they comfortably beat Senegal 3-0 in the Round of 16.

Although Tuchel has lost only one match since taking charge, African opposition have posed some of his toughest tests. Alongside the goalless draw with Ghana, England were beaten 3-1 by Senegal in an international friendly in June 2025.

Even with injuries affecting their defence and an attack that has yet to consistently click in North America, England remain clear favourites. The Opta supercomputer’s 25,000 simulations gave the Three Lions a 73.9% chance of winning inside 90 minutes, compared to just 11.3% for DR Congo. The probability of a draw stands at 14.8%, a scenario neither side will welcome given the introduction of an extra knockout round and the physical demands of additional time.

Overall, England have an 82.0% chance of reaching the Round of 16, while DR Congo’s chances stand at 18.0%.

If the statistics prove accurate, England should have enough quality to progress. However, DR Congo have already demonstrated resilience, belief and an ability to seize big moments. If they can frustrate England in the same way Ghana managed during the group stage, another World Cup surprise may yet be possible.