France head into Thursday’s FIFA World Cup quarter final against Morocco as clear favourites, but the Atlas Lions have already shown they are capable of upsetting the odds on the biggest stage.

According to the Opta supercomputer, France have a 62.2% chance of winning in normal time, while Morocco’s chances of causing an upset stand at 15.7%. The remaining 22.1% of simulations ended level after 90 minutes, meaning extra time and possibly penalties would be needed.

Victory for France would secure a third consecutive World Cup semi final appearance following their triumph in 2018 and runners up finish in 2022. If they achieve that feat, Les Bleus would become only the third nation to reach the last four in three straight tournaments, joining Germany, who managed the feat twice between 1982 and 1990 and 2002 and 2014, and Brazil between 1994 and 2002.

Didier Deschamps will also reach a personal milestone. The clash will be his 25th match as France manager at the FIFA World Cup, equalling the record set by Helmut Schön between 1966 and 1978.

France booked their place in the quarter finals with a hard fought 1 0 victory over Paraguay. The contest proved to be their toughest challenge of the tournament so far, but Kylian Mbappé’s 70th minute penalty ultimately settled the encounter.

Mbappé’s goal took him to seven for the tournament, level with Erling Haaland and just one behind Lionel Messi in the race for the Golden Boot. Beyond his scoring exploits, the French captain has contributed two assists, created 12 chances, and completed eight defensive line breaking passes, with only Michael Olise recording more for France with nine.

Olise has enjoyed a remarkable debut World Cup campaign. He has become the first player since Brazil’s Zico in 1978 to complete at least 11 dribbles, create 10 chances from open play, and produce 11 through balls in his first World Cup appearance.

France arrive full of confidence after winning seven consecutive competitive matches and claiming victory in 11 of their last 12, drawing the other. The last time they produced a longer winning streak was between September 2002 and June 2004, when they won 14 matches in succession.

Morocco, however, have proven they are no pushovers. They are only the second African side to remain unbeaten through their opening five matches at a World Cup, having also achieved the feat in 2022.

Their preparations have been complicated by injury concerns. Ismael Saibari, who scored in each of Morocco’s group stage matches, suffered a thigh injury during the 3 0 victory over Canada in the round of 16 and remains a doubt. Chadi Riad is also racing to recover from a knee problem.

If Saibari is unavailable, Morocco will look to Brahim Díaz and Achraf Hakimi for inspiration. Since the start of the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations, Díaz has been directly involved in more Morocco goals than any other player, contributing six goals and four assists. Hakimi has also been outstanding, creating 21 chances across the last two World Cups, more than any defender. His 15 chances created at the 2026 tournament are the highest by an African defender at a single World Cup since records began in 1966.

France may also have selection concerns. Aurélien Tchouaméni remains doubtful with a groin injury, while William Saliba battled through a back problem against Paraguay. Manu Koné could continue in midfield if Tchouaméni is unavailable.

History also favours the French. Their 2 0 victory over Morocco in the 2022 World Cup semi final remains the only competitive meeting between the nations, while France are unbeaten across six overall encounters, winning three and drawing three. However, they cannot underestimate African opposition, with three of their six World Cup defeats this century coming against teams from the continent, excluding penalty shootouts.

Based on 25,000 Opta supercomputer simulations, France remain the most likely team to progress. Yet Morocco’s historic run and defensive resilience suggest another memorable upset cannot be completely ruled out.