Hull City return to the Premier League after nine years away and face one of English football’s biggest clubs when they welcome Manchester United to the MKM Stadium on Saturday. The Opta supercomputer strongly favours Manchester United to begin the 2026-27 campaign with a victory, giving Michael Carrick’s side a 68.9% chance of winning, compared with 12.2% for Hull City, while a draw is rated at 18.9%. The difference in expectations reflects the contrasting ambitions of the two clubs, with United targeting a return to the top of English football and Hull simply aiming to establish themselves in the Premier League after winning promotion through the Championship play-offs last season.

Manchester United enter the new campaign with renewed optimism under Michael Carrick, who was initially appointed until the end of the 2025-26 season before being rewarded with a new two-year contract. Carrick won 12 of his 17 matches last season and helped United climb from seventh in the table to Champions League qualification with three games to spare. From the day Carrick took charge until the end of the campaign, United collected 39 points, more than any other team in the English top flight. Captain Harry Maguire has already made United’s ambitions clear, with the club targeting a record-extending 21st top-flight title. United’s last league championship came in 2013, but the club now believes Carrick can provide the stability needed to challenge for major honours again.

The summer recruitment has also strengthened the squad, particularly in midfield. New arrivals Andrey Santos and Youri Tielemans are expected to compensate for the departure of Casemiro and provide greater quality in the engine room. However, United face considerably greater demands this season because they must compete in the Champions League as well as the Premier League and both domestic cups. One of their biggest weaknesses last season was their away form, with United winning only seven of their 19 away league matches, meaning a difficult trip to Hull represents an early opportunity to show that they can improve on the road.

History suggests United should be confident. Manchester United have won their opening Premier League match on a record 22 occasions, while they have never lost a Premier League match against a newly promoted opponent, recording nine wins and three draws. Carrick also has an excellent personal record against Hull, having won four of his six managerial meetings with the club across all competitions, with one draw and one defeat. He is unbeaten in his three previous visits to the MKM Stadium, recording two wins and one draw. United have also never lost to Hull in the Premier League, winning eight and drawing two of their 10 meetings with the Tigers. Their most recent league encounter ended in a 0-0 draw at Old Trafford in February 2017, just days after Hull had beaten United in the EFL Cup.

Hull, however, can point to their own impressive opening-day record. The Tigers have won 60% of their Premier League opening matches, recording three victories from five games. Only Manchester United, with a 65% win ratio from 34 opening-day matches, and Blackpool, who have won their only Premier League opener, have a better record. Hull’s most recent Premier League opening-day victory came in 2016-17, when they defeated reigning champions Leicester City. That season ultimately ended in relegation, with Hull conceding 80 goals, the most in the division, and losing their final three matches by an aggregate score of 13-1. Now back in the top flight, they will hope their second Premier League adventure produces a very different outcome.

Under owner Acun Ilıcalı and new head coach Sergej Jakirović, Hull face a difficult challenge. Jakirović is the first Bosnian manager in Premier League history, and he has been tasked with keeping the club competitive against far more experienced top-flight opponents. Hull’s promotion came despite some concerning underlying numbers in the Championship. They registered the fifth-fewest shots with 515, faced the third-most shots with 681, and recorded the second-lowest expected-goals difference at -20.6 among all 24 Championship clubs. They were also the second-worst-performing team in Opta’s expected-points table. Hull became the first team since Blackpool in 2010 to win promotion after finishing sixth, and they won fewer than half of their home league matches last season, finishing with 11 wins, six draws and seven defeats.

Jakirović has nevertheless been given new players to help him prepare for the Premier League. Hull recently completed their pre-season schedule with a 0-0 draw against Nice, while United had a more high-profile series of friendlies against opponents including Atlético Madrid, Paris Saint-Germain and Milan. Hull have brought in Greek goalkeeper Konstantinos Tzolakis, club-record signing Nobel Mendy, and Lucas Herrington, one of the brightest young prospects associated with the World Cup generation. Herrington, an 18-year-old defender, attracted attention from many of Europe’s leading clubs while playing for Colorado Rapids, where he became a starter for Australia and was selected for the MLS All-Star Team.

Hull will also depend heavily on Oliver McBurnie, who scored 18 Championship goals last season despite missing out on Scotland selection. His ability to hold up the ball and occupy United’s defenders could be important if Hull are forced to play without much possession. United, meanwhile, have several fitness concerns, with Manuel Ugarte and Matthijs de Ligt among those expected to miss the match, while there are also doubts over first-choice striker Benjamin Sesko. United will receive a major boost if captain Bruno Fernandes is fit to start alongside Santos and Tielemans. Fernandes enjoyed a remarkable 2025-26 campaign, setting a new Premier League record for assists in a single season with 21.

Another major storyline is the return of Marcus Rashford. The forward has returned to his boyhood club following his loan spell at Barcelona and made a second-half appearance against Milan during pre-season. Rashford averaged a goal involvement every 105 minutes for Barcelona, producing 25 goal involvements across all competitions. If selected, the match could therefore mark his first competitive appearance for Manchester United in almost two years.

The head-to-head record heavily favours United. Hull have faced Manchester United 10 times in the Premier League without winning, recording two draws and eight defeats. That makes United one of the clubs Hull have faced most often without victory, with the Tigers’ 10-game winless run against United matching their record against Chelsea, against whom they have also recorded two draws and eight defeats. Manchester United therefore arrive with both the historical and statistical advantage.

The Opta supercomputer’s longer-term predictions are similarly contrasting. Manchester United have a 6.6% chance of winning the Premier League title, placing them fourth among the competition’s title favourites, while Hull City are considered the team most likely to be relegated, with a 42.3% relegation probability. Those numbers underline the enormous gap in expectations between the sides. United are aiming to challenge for the championship and compete in Europe, whereas Hull’s primary objective will be survival.

The predicted Hull City lineup is Konstantinos Tzolakis; Lewie Coyle, Semi Ajayi, John Egan, Ryan Giles; Matt Crooks, Regan Slater, Jens Hjertø-Dahl; Mohamed Belloumi, Elliot Stroud, Oliver McBurnie, with Sergej Jakirović as head coach. Manchester United are predicted to line up with Senne Lammens; Diogo Dalot, Leny Yoro, Harry Maguire, Luke Shaw; Youri Tielemans, Andrey Santos; Amad Diallo, Bruno Fernandes, Matheus Cunha, Bryan Mbeumo, with Michael Carrick in charge.

Overall, the numbers point towards a difficult return to the Premier League for Hull City. Their strong opening-day history provides some encouragement, but United’s superior squad, excellent record against promoted teams, Carrick’s recent form and the Opta supercomputer’s 68.9% win probability make Manchester United clear favourites. Hull will need to defend exceptionally well and make the most of their limited opportunities if they are to cause an upset, while United will be expected to control the game and start their campaign with three points.