Arsenal head to the Stadium of Light on Saturday night looking to make it four Premier League victories from four and maintain the perfect beginning to their title defence. Sunderland, meanwhile, will hope their impressive home form can give them a chance of producing one of the weekend’s biggest surprises.

The Opta supercomputer makes Arsenal clear favourites, giving Mikel Arteta’s side a 65.1 per cent chance of winning after 25,000 pre-match simulations. Sunderland were given a 13 per cent chance of taking all three points, while the draw was calculated at 21.8 per cent.

Arsenal chasing another winning start

Arsenal have opened the new campaign exactly as the reigning champions would have wanted. They defeated Coventry City in their opening fixture before edging Aston Villa and then coming from behind to beat Chelsea 2-1.

The result at Stamford Bridge was particularly encouraging after Morgan Rogers gave Chelsea an early lead inside the opening two minutes. Kai Havertz and Martin Ødegaard turned the game around, preserving Arsenal’s 100 per cent record and putting them within one victory of another four-game winning start to a top-flight season.

It would be only the sixth time Arsenal have begun a top-flight campaign with four consecutive victories. History offers mixed encouragement. The Gunners finished runners-up after making such starts in 2004-05 and 2022-23, but went on to win the title in the first three instances, in 1930-31, 1947-48 and 2003-04.

There is still a long way to go, but Arteta’s side have so far looked capable of matching the expectations surrounding them before the campaign began.

Their underlying numbers are particularly impressive defensively. Arsenal have conceded the lowest expected goals total in the Premier League this season, allowing opponents only 0.93 xG across their first three matches. They have faced just six shots on target, with Sunderland themselves the only team to have allowed fewer, at five.

Havertz leading the press as Arsenal add creativity

Havertz has contributed two goals in Arsenal’s opening three league matches, but his influence has extended well beyond his finishing.

The Germany international has covered 32.9 kilometres, more than any other Premier League striker so far this season. His willingness to work without the ball is reflected in his sprint numbers too: he has made 50 sprints, with only Fulham’s Gonzalo García recording more among forwards, with 52.

Behind Havertz, Declan Rice has continued to provide an important link between Arsenal’s midfield and attack. The arrival of Bruno Guimarães has increased competition in the middle of the pitch, but Rice remains a major creative outlet. His 40 line-breaking passes into the final third are the most recorded by any player in the division this season.

Arsenal have also added another dimension in attack. Following Gabriel Martinelli’s departure, Christos Tzolis has taken his opportunity, registering his first league assist when he supplied Ødegaard for the captain’s emphatic winner against Chelsea.

Tzolis has created eight chances from open play, a figure bettered only by Chelsea’s Rogers, who has nine. His arrival gives Arteta another attacking option without appearing to have compromised the defensive structure that has been one of Arsenal’s greatest strengths.

Sunderland’s home form offers hope

Sunderland have made a respectable return to life at this level despite suffering late disappointment against Ipswich Town in one of their opening matches.

Régis Le Bris’ side bounced back with a 1-0 home victory over Fulham before travelling to Brentford and securing a 1-1 draw. Enzo Le Fée converted a late penalty to earn a point in west London, but Sunderland will be pleased to return to the Stadium of Light, where their record has been particularly strong.

They lost only four Premier League matches at home throughout the 2025-26 campaign. They have also won their last two home league matches against London opposition, beating Chelsea on the final day of last season before defeating Fulham on Matchweek 2.

The challenge now is considerably greater. Arsenal arrive as champions and one of the league’s early pace-setters.

Sunderland have not won three consecutive top-flight home games at the Stadium of Light since early 2012. That previous run came against Manchester opposition and other sides from the north-east, with Manchester City, Swansea City and Norwich City among the victims.

Saturday therefore represents a chance for Le Bris’ team to create a new chapter in their recent home history.

Xhaka reunion adds another subplot

There will be a familiar face in Sunderland’s midfield when Granit Xhaka lines up against his former club.

The former Arsenal captain has quickly established himself as one of Sunderland’s most influential players. He leads the club in the Premier League this season for touches, with 243, while also topping their numbers for chances created with seven, passes into the box with 26, fouls won with eight and successful passes with 163.

His knowledge of Arsenal and experience at the highest level could prove valuable against the champions.

Sunderland’s team news is relatively straightforward. Habib Diarra is the only long-term absentee among the club’s first-team starters, with the midfielder also missing Tuesday’s 1-0 League Cup third-round victory over Hull City.

Arsenal have their own concerns, although Arteta’s selection options remain broadly unchanged. William Saliba continues to be sidelined for the long term, while Cristhian Mosquera and Jürrien Timber were absent from Arsenal’s 1-0 Champions League victory over Napoli on Wednesday.

Sunderland’s record against Arsenal makes for grim reading

The historical numbers are heavily weighted towards Arsenal.

Sunderland have won only one of their last 29 Premier League meetings with the Gunners, drawing 10 and losing 18 during that period. Their sole victory in that sequence came in November 2009, meaning they have now gone 17 league meetings without defeating Arsenal.

Arsenal have also enjoyed considerable success when travelling to Sunderland. They have lost only once in their last 14 league visits to the Stadium of Light, winning eight and drawing five.

The Gunners have won five of their last seven trips, although last season’s meeting ended differently. Brian Brobbey produced an acrobatic late finish to secure a 2-2 draw.

This is only the second Premier League season in which Arsenal have faced Sunderland as reigning champions. The previous occasion came in 2002-03, when Arsène Wenger’s side completed a league double, winning 3-1 at home before recording a 4-0 victory away.

Sunderland do, however, have experience of defeating reigning champions on home soil. They have done so four times in the Premier League era, against four different clubs: Manchester United in 1996-97, Manchester City in 2012-13, Chelsea in 2015-16 and Leicester City in 2016-17.

A fifth such victory would rank among the club’s most memorable recent results.

What does the Opta supercomputer predict?

Despite Sunderland’s strong home record and the historical possibility of an upset, the data model sees Arsenal as overwhelming favourites.

Across 25,000 simulations, Arsenal won 65.1 per cent of the time. Sunderland came out on top in 13 per cent, while 21.8 per cent ended level.

The prediction reflects Arsenal’s combination of early-season form, defensive strength and historical dominance in this fixture, although Sunderland’s performances at the Stadium of Light suggest the champions may have to work for their fourth victory.

Predicted line-ups

Sunderland: Robin Roefs, Nordi Mukiele, Kevin Danso, Dan Ballard, Reinildo Mandava, Granit Xhaka, Noah Sadiki, Nilson Angulo, Enzo Le Fée, Thomas Meunier, Brian Brobbey.

Head coach: Régis Le Bris.

Arsenal: David Raya, Ben White, Ezri Konsa, Gabriel Magalhães, Riccardo Calafiori, Declan Rice, Myles Lewis-Skelly, Bukayo Saka, Martin Ødegaard, Christos Tzolis, Kai Havertz.

Head coach: Mikel Arteta.

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings provide a global assessment of more than 13,000 domestic football teams. Each side is given an ability rating between zero and 100, with 100 representing the strongest possible rating and zero the lowest.

The rankings provide another statistical measure of the difference between Sunderland and Arsenal ahead of Saturday’s meeting.

For all the numbers pointing towards Arsenal, though, Sunderland have one major advantage: home territory. Their recent record at the Stadium of Light has made them difficult opponents, and they have already shown this season that they can respond after setbacks.

Arsenal, however, arrive with three wins from three, the division’s strongest defensive underlying numbers and the opportunity to make history once again with a fourth consecutive victory at the start of a title defence.

The supercomputer expects the champions to continue their perfect run. Sunderland will be hoping the Stadium of Light can produce a result that the numbers do not see coming.