The Champions League’s expanded league phase is back for a third season, and once again the draw has created a fascinating mix of opportunity and danger for the clubs involved. England will have five representatives in the competition after the Premier League earned an additional place through its performances in Europe last season. Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United, Manchester City and Aston Villa will all enter the 36-team league phase knowing that the eight opponents waiting for them could have a major influence on their route into the knockout rounds.

The format is designed to produce a broad range of fixtures. Each club faces eight different teams, taking on two opponents from each of the four seeding pots. There are also restrictions preventing teams from meeting more than two clubs from the same country or facing a side from their own domestic league. With nine teams in every pot, however, the difference in quality between the possible opponents can be substantial. That makes the draw more than a formality: it can materially alter the difficulty of a club’s European campaign.

To measure those differences, Opta’s Power Rankings provide a useful benchmark. The system rates around 16,000 clubs worldwide on a scale from zero to 100, giving every team a comparable strength rating regardless of league. Arsenal sit at the summit with a perfect 100 rating, narrowly ahead of Bayern Munich on 99.99. By identifying the lowest-rated eligible teams in each pot, it is possible to construct the most favourable theoretical draw for the English clubs, while doing the same at the other end produces a nightmare scenario.

The easiest route would begin with Inter Milan and Atlético Madrid from Pot 1. Inter are ranked 10th in the world, while Atlético sit much lower in 31st. That makes Diego Simeone’s team something of an outlier among the elite sides in the top pot. Atlético reached the Champions League semi-finals last season, but their domestic record has been less imposing, with a fourth-place finish in La Liga marking the second time in three seasons they have ended outside the top three. Their last major trophy also dates back to 2020-21.

Pot 2 offers PSV and Real Betis as the least intimidating options by the rankings. PSV, despite winning the Eredivisie last season, struggled in Europe and ended the previous Champions League league phase in 28th place after collecting only two victories. Betis return to the competition after a 21-year absence, having finished fifth in La Liga last season. They benefited from Spain receiving an extra Champions League berth.

The biggest gap in quality appears in Pot 3. Feyenoord are ranked 101st globally, while Shakhtar Donetsk sit 139th, making them comfortably the weakest teams in that pot according to the rankings. Feyenoord finished second in the Netherlands but were 19 points behind PSV, while their Europa League campaign ended badly, with six defeats in eight league-phase matches. Shakhtar, meanwhile, were comfortably beaten by Crystal Palace in the Conference League semi-finals last season.

Pot 4 provides even more room for a favourable draw. Sabah, champions of Azerbaijan in 2025-26, are appearing in the league phase after navigating four qualifying rounds and have only been competing at this level of European football since their foundation in 2017. Even they are not the lowest-ranked team in the competition. That distinction belongs to Slovan Bratislava, who are rated 224th in the world. Slovan reached the league phase in 2024-25 but endured a disastrous campaign, losing all eight matches.

Put those eight opponents together and the dream scenario for any of England’s five clubs would be Inter, Atlético Madrid, PSV, Real Betis, Feyenoord, Shakhtar Donetsk, Sabah and Slovan Bratislava. On paper, it is about as gentle a path as the new league-phase format can offer.

The opposite scenario is considerably more intimidating. Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain would form the toughest possible pairing from Pot 1. Bayern are currently ranked second in the world, while PSG sit fourth and enter the season as back-to-back European champions. It would be difficult to imagine a more demanding top-pot combination.

Pot 2 can also produce a severe test. Manchester United and Aston Villa are actually the two highest-ranked clubs in that pot, but English teams cannot draw themselves, leaving Borussia Dortmund and Club Brugge as the strongest available opponents. Dortmund, ranked 14th in the world, are seasoned Champions League performers, while Club Brugge have established themselves as a difficult opponent on the European stage in recent seasons.

Bodø/Glimt and Napoli would then complete a formidable Pot 3 pairing. Bodø/Glimt are ranked 27th globally and showed last season that their reputation is no longer confined to domestic football, beating Manchester City, Atlético Madrid and Inter twice during their Champions League campaign. Napoli, despite finishing second in Serie A, struggled badly in the previous Champions League league phase and ended 30th of the 36 teams.

The final pot creates perhaps the most misleading aspect of the draw. The seeding system means a team can be placed in Pot 4 despite being considerably stronger than several sides in the pots above them. Como, ranked 26th in the world, and Lens, ranked 28th, would be the two opponents every English club would want to avoid. Como finished fourth in Serie A last season to qualify for Europe for the first time, while Lens pushed Paris Saint-Germain close in the Ligue 1 title race.

That gives us the toughest theoretical schedule: Bayern Munich, PSG, Borussia Dortmund, Club Brugge, Bodø/Glimt, Napoli, Lens and Como. It is a reminder of just how dramatically the draw can swing the difficulty of a Champions League campaign.

But the quality of the opponents is not necessarily decisive for the strongest clubs. Last season offers a useful example. Bayern were handed the most difficult league-phase schedule of the 36 teams yet won seven of their eight matches and finished second. PSG faced the second-hardest fixture list and initially struggled to finish inside the top eight, forcing them into a play-off, but they ultimately went all the way and lifted the trophy.

For teams lower down the pecking order, though, the draw can be much more consequential. Tottenham’s run last season illustrated the benefit of favourable opposition. Spurs endured a difficult domestic campaign but still finished fourth in the Champions League league phase after receiving one of the competition’s easier schedules. PSV and Marseille experienced the other side of that equation: both were handed demanding fixture lists and failed even to reach the play-off round.

That is why the Champions League draw remains significant even in a format designed to give every club eight matches against a varied selection of opponents. The best teams may be able to overcome almost any schedule, but for everyone else, the difference between drawing the likes of Inter, PSV and Slovan Bratislava or Bayern, Dortmund and Como could be the difference between a straightforward route to the knockout rounds and a season spent fighting for survival.