Analysis: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Liverpool

Liverpool travel to Germany on Wednesday to face Eintracht Frankfurt at Deutsche Bank Park, hoping to stop a slide that has seen them lose four straight matches in all competitions – their worst run in over ten years. Both teams enter Matchday 3 of the UEFA Champions League on shaky form, but with plenty still to play for.

Our supercomputer gives Liverpool a 56.3 percent chance of victory, making them the more likely winners on paper. Frankfurt’s chances sit at 21.8 percent, with a draw rated at 22 percent.

Both sides have endured identical starts to their European campaigns. Each won their first group game at home before falling away in the second. Eintracht demolished Galatasaray 5-1 but were humbled 1-5 by Atlético Madrid, while Liverpool edged Atlético 3-2 at Anfield before losing 0-1 to Galatasaray in Istanbul.

Recent form tells a story of frustration for both. Frankfurt have won just one of their last five matches across all competitions. They led 2-1 at Freiburg on Sunday but conceded an 87th-minute equalizer, another late collapse that cost them vital points.

Liverpool’s situation is even worse. A 2-1 defeat to Manchester United at Anfield extended their losing streak to four, three of those defeats coming after conceding goals in the final 10 minutes. Once title contenders, Arne Slot’s side now find themselves desperate for stability.

The numbers suggest Liverpool have been unlucky rather than poor. Despite losing four in a row, they have created an average of 1.81 expected goals (xG) per game, compared to Frankfurt’s recent ceiling of just 0.89. The Reds have scored only three times from 8.64 xG during this run — a clear sign of wastefulness rather than lack of opportunity.

Defensively, Frankfurt have been far more porous. Their 1-5 loss to Atlético Madrid was one of the worst defensive showings of this season’s competition, allowing 4.44 xG ;the second-highest total recorded by any team so far. If Liverpool find their finishing touch, the Germans could be in trouble again.

Mohamed Salah will be central to Liverpool’s hopes. Though the Egyptian hasn’t scored or assisted in his last four club games, he remains lethal in Europe. He has netted 15 goals in his last 19 away matches in the Champions League, more than any player in Liverpool’s history.

Hugo Ekitiké, once of Frankfurt, could partner Salah in attack after starting on the bench against United. Liverpool remain without Alisson Becker, Wataru Endō, and Giovanni Leoni due to injury, while Frankfurt’s absentees include Elias Baum, Nnamdi Collins, and Jessic Ngankam.

Frankfurt’s biggest threat will come from in-form striker Jonathan Burkardt, who has six goals and an assist in his last six matches. He’s already found the net in both of his Champions League appearances this season, joining Erich Bäumler and Erich Meier as the only Frankfurt players to do so in their first two games in the competition.

Liverpool have history on their side. They have lost just one of their last 15 matches against German clubs in the European Cup or Champions League, winning 10. They have also won their last four away matches against Bundesliga opposition, including a 1-0 triumph over RB Leipzig last season.

For Frankfurt, the pattern is less positive. Their home form against English sides is mixed – defeats to Tottenham and Arsenal, a draw with Chelsea, and a single win over West Ham in recent years.

Opta’s data points toward a Liverpool recovery, but given both sides’ inconsistency, anything could happen.

Prediction: Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 Liverpool
Player to Watch: Mohamed Salah

Predicted Lineups

Eintracht Frankfurt: Kauã Santos, Nnamdi Collins, Robin Koch, Arthur Theate, Nathaniel Brown, Farès Chaïbi, Ritsu Doan, Can Uzun, Ansgar Knauff, Jonathan Burkardt.
Manager: Dino Toppmöller

Liverpool: Giorgi Mamardashvili, Jeremie Frimpong, Ibrahima Konaté, Virgil van Dijk, Milos Kerkez, Curtis Jones, Alexis Mac Allister, Dominik Szoboszlai, Florian Wirtz, Cody Gakpo, Hugo Ekitiké.
Manager: Arne Slot